Dataset Information

Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions.

ABSTRACT: CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y(-1) for 1990-1999 to >3% y(-1) for 2000-2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) (energy/GDP) and the carbon intensity of energy (emissions/energy), coupled with continuing increases in population and per-capita GDP. Nearly constant or slightly increasing trends in the carbon intensity of energy have been recently observed in both developed and developing regions. No region is decarbonizing its energy supply. The growth rate in emissions is strongest in rapidly developing economies, particularly China. Together, the developing and least-developed economies (forming 80% of the world's population) accounted for 73% of global emissions growth in 2004 but only 41% of global emissions and only 23% of global cumulative emissions since the mid-18th century. The results have implications for global equity.

SUBMITTER: Raupach MR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1876160 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions.

Raupach Michael R MR Marland Gregg G Ciais Philippe P Le Quéré Corinne C Canadell Josep G JG Klepper Gernot G Field Christopher B CB

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20070522 24

CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel burning and industrial processes have been accelerating at a global scale, with their growth rate increasing from 1.1% y(-1) for 1990-1999 to >3% y(-1) for 2000-2004. The emissions growth rate since 2000 was greater than for the most fossil-fuel intensive of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emissions scenarios developed in the late 1990s. Global emissions growth since 2000 was driven by a cessation or reversal of earlier declining trends in the energy ...[more]

PMID: 17519334

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Project description:China is the largest CO2 emitter in the world and announced that carbon peak and neutral targets will be achieved before 2030 and 2060, respectively. A retrospective analysis of past CO2 emissions and their drivers is important for the actions of peaking CO2 emissions before 2030 in China. CO2 emissions from energy use (coal, oil, and natural gas) and cement production from 2000 to 2020 were calculated first, and their drivers were decomposed into economic and population growth, energy intensity, and emission coefficient by logarithmic mean Divisa index (LMDI) analysis in this study. China’s CO2 emissions increased nearly threefold from 3385 in 2000 to 10,788 million tonnes (Mt) in 2020, with a decline from 2013 to 2016. Coal was the major emission sector contributing more than 70% in most years, while natural gas emissions increased nearly 13 times from 53 to 723 Mt in the two decades, although its contribution only accounted for 6.7% in 2020. Economic growth was the major positive driver, while energy intensity reduction was the major negative driver of the emission increments by year and by the Five Year Plan (FYP). Emission coefficient reduction gradually became important due to its negative effect, especially in the 13th FYP, which offset ~ 30% of the emissions induced by economic growth. The projections of CO2 emissions in 2025, 2030, and 2035 could be 11,596 ± 582, 11,774 ± 621, and 11,401 ± 672 Mt, respectively, suggesting that China’s carbon emissions could peak around 2030 with an increment of ~ 1000 Mt on the 2020 levels. Under the sustainable growth of the economy and population, it is possible to reduce the carbon peak value or achieve peak time earlier through the additional reduction of energy intensity and emission coefficient by technological progress and energy alternatives such as non-fossil fuels. Graphical Abstract Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10668-022-02811-8.

Dataset Information

Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions.

Publications

Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions.

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