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Group interest versus self-interest in smallpox vaccination policy.

ABSTRACT: The recent threat of bioterrorism has fueled debate on smallpox vaccination policy for the United States. Certain policy proposals call for voluntary mass vaccination; however, if individuals decide whether to vaccinate according to self-interest, the level of herd immunity achieved may differ from what is best for the population as a whole. We present a synthesis of game theory and epidemic modeling that formalizes this conflict between self-interest and group interest and shows that voluntary vaccination is unlikely to reach the group-optimal level. This shortfall results in a substantial increase in expected mortality after an attack.

SUBMITTER: Bauch CT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC193525 | biostudies-literature | 2003 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Group interest versus self-interest in smallpox vaccination policy.

Bauch Chris T CT Galvani Alison P AP Earn David J D DJ

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20030814 18

The recent threat of bioterrorism has fueled debate on smallpox vaccination policy for the United States. Certain policy proposals call for voluntary mass vaccination; however, if individuals decide whether to vaccinate according to self-interest, the level of herd immunity achieved may differ from what is best for the population as a whole. We present a synthesis of game theory and epidemic modeling that formalizes this conflict between self-interest and group interest and shows that voluntary ...[more]

PMID: 12920181

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