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Modelling the effect of malaria endemicity on spatial variations in childhood fever, diarrhoea and pneumonia in Malawi.

ABSTRACT: Co-morbidity with conditions such as fever, diarrhoea and pneumonia is a common phenomenon in tropical Africa. However, little is known about geographical overlaps in these illnesses. Spatial modelling may improve our understanding of the epidemiology of the diseases for efficient and cost-effective control.This study assessed subdistrict-specific spatial associations of the three conditions (fever, diarrhoea and pneumonia) in relation to malaria endemicity. We used data from the 2000 Malawi demographic and health survey which captured the history of childhood morbidities 2 weeks prior to the survey date. The disease status of each child in each area was the outcome of interest and was modelled using a trivariate logistic regression model, and incorporated random effects to measure spatial correlation.The risk of fever was positively associated with high and medium malaria endemicity levels relative to low endemicity level, while for diarrhoea and pneumonia we observed marginal positive association at high endemicity level relative to low endemicity level, controlling for confounding covariates and heterogeneity. A positive spatial correlation was found between fever and diarrhoea (r = 0.29); while weak associations were estimated between fever and pneumonia (r = 0.01); and between diarrhoea and pneumonia (r = 0.05). The proportion of structured spatial variation compared to unstructured variation was 0.67 (95% credible interval (CI): 0.31-0.91) for fever, 0.67 (95 % CI: 0.27-0.93) for diarrhoea, and 0.87 (95% CI: 0.62-0.96) for pneumonia.The analysis suggests some similarities in subdistrict-specific spatial variation of childhood morbidities of fever, diarrhoea and pneumonia, and might be a result of shared and overlapping risk factors, one of which is malaria endemicity.

SUBMITTER: Kazembe LN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC1963446 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling the effect of malaria endemicity on spatial variations in childhood fever, diarrhoea and pneumonia in Malawi.

Kazembe Lawrence N LN Muula Adamson S AS Appleton Christopher C CC Kleinschmidt Immo I

International journal of health geographics 20070725

<h4>Background</h4>Co-morbidity with conditions such as fever, diarrhoea and pneumonia is a common phenomenon in tropical Africa. However, little is known about geographical overlaps in these illnesses. Spatial modelling may improve our understanding of the epidemiology of the diseases for efficient and cost-effective control.<h4>Methods</h4>This study assessed subdistrict-specific spatial associations of the three conditions (fever, diarrhoea and pneumonia) in relation to malaria endemicity. We ...[more]

PMID: 17651488

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Project description:BackgroundGlobally, nearly half of all deaths among children under the age of 5 years can be attributed to malaria, diarrhoea, and pneumonia. A significant proportion of these deaths occur in sub-Saharan Africa. Despite several programmes implemented in sub-Saharan Africa, the burden of these illnesses remains persistently high. To mobilise resources for such programmes it is necessary to evaluate their costs, costs-effectiveness, and affordability. This study aimed to estimate the provider costs of treating malaria, diarrhoea, and pneumonia among children under the age of 5 years in routine settings at the health facility level in rural Uganda and Mozambique.MethodsService and cost data was collected from health facilities in midwestern Uganda and Inhambane province, Mozambique from private and public health facilities. Financial and economic costs of providing care for childhood illnesses were investigated from the provider perspective by combining a top-down and bottom-up approach to estimate unit costs and annual total costs for different types of visits for these illnesses. All costs were collected in Ugandan shillings and Mozambican meticais. Costs are presented in 2021 US dollars.ResultsIn Uganda, the highest number of outpatient visits were for children with uncomplicated malaria and of inpatient admissions were for respiratory infections, including pneumonia. The highest unit cost for outpatient visits was for pneumonia (and other respiratory infections) and ranged from $0.5 to 2.3, while the highest unit cost for inpatient admissions was for malaria ($19.6). In Mozambique, the highest numbers of outpatient and inpatient admissions visits were for malaria. The highest unit costs were for malaria too, ranging from $2.5 to 4.2 for outpatient visits and $3.8 for inpatient admissions. The greatest contributors to costs in both countries were drugs and diagnostics, followed by staff.ConclusionsThe findings highlighted the intensive resource use in the treatment of malaria and pneumonia for outpatient and inpatient cases, particularly at higher level health facilities. Timely treatment to prevent severe complications associated with these illnesses can also avoid high costs to health providers, and households.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov, identifier: NCT01972321.

Project description:BackgroundMeasurement of malaria endemicity is typically based on vector or parasite measures. A complementary approach is the detection of parasite specific IgG antibodies. We determined the antibody levels and seroconversion rates to both P. vivax and P. falciparum merozoite antigens in individuals living in areas of varying P. vivax endemicity in Pará state, Brazilian Amazon region.Methodology/principal findingsThe prevalence of antibodies to recombinant antigens from P. vivax and P. falciparum was determined in 1,330 individuals. Cross sectional surveys were conducted in the north of Brazil in Anajás, Belém, Goianésia do Pará, Jacareacanga, Itaituba, Trairão, all in the Pará state, and Sucuriju, a free-malaria site in the neighboring state Amapá. Seroprevalence to any P. vivax antigens (MSP1 or AMA-1) was 52.5%, whereas 24.7% of the individuals were seropositive to any P. falciparum antigens (MSP1 or AMA-1). For P. vivax antigens, the seroconversion rates (SCR) ranged from 0.005 (Sucuriju) to 0.201 (Goianésia do Pará), and are strongly correlated to the corresponding Annual Parasite Index (API). We detected two sites with distinct characteristics: Goianésia do Pará where seroprevalence curve does not change with age, and Sucuriju where seroprevalence curve is better described by a model with two SCRs compatible with a decrease in force of infection occurred 14 years ago (from 0.069 to 0.005). For P. falciparum antigens, current SCR estimates varied from 0.002 (Belém) to 0.018 (Goianésia do Pará). We also detected a putative decrease in disease transmission occurred ∼29 years ago in Anajás, Goianésia do Pará, Itaituba, Jacareacanga, and Trairão.ConclusionsWe observed heterogeneity of serological indices across study sites with different endemicity levels and temporal changes in the force of infection in some of the sites. Our study provides further evidence that serology can be used to measure and monitor transmission of both major species of malaria parasite.

Project description:BACKGROUND:Malaria transmission is influenced by a complex interplay of factors including climate, socio-economic, environmental factors and interventions. Malaria control efforts across Africa have shown a mixed impact. Climate driven factors may play an increasing role with climate change. Efforts to strengthen routine facility-based monthly malaria data collection across Africa create an increasingly valuable data source to interpret burden trends and monitor control programme progress. A better understanding of the association with other climatic and non-climatic drivers of malaria incidence over time and space may help guide and interpret the impact of interventions. METHODS:Routine monthly paediatric outpatient clinical malaria case data were compiled from 27 districts in Malawi between 2004 and 2017, and analysed in combination with data on climatic, environmental, socio-economic and interventional factors and district level population estimates. A spatio-temporal generalized linear mixed model was fitted using Bayesian inference, in order to quantify the strength of association of the various risk factors with district-level variation in clinical malaria rates in Malawi, and visualized using maps. RESULTS:Between 2004 and 2017 reported childhood clinical malaria case rates showed a slight increase, from 50 to 53 cases per 1000 population, with considerable variation across the country between climatic zones. Climatic and environmental factors, including average monthly air temperature and rainfall anomalies, normalized difference vegetative index (NDVI) and RDT use for diagnosis showed a significant relationship with malaria incidence. Temperature in the current month and in each of the 3 months prior showed a significant relationship with the disease incidence unlike rainfall anomaly which was associated with malaria incidence at only three months prior. Estimated risk maps show relatively high risk along the lake and Shire valley regions of Malawi. CONCLUSION:The modelling approach can identify locations likely to have unusually high or low risk of malaria incidence across Malawi, and distinguishes between contributions to risk that can be explained by measured risk-factors and unexplained residual spatial variation. Also, spatial statistical methods applied to readily available routine data provides an alternative information source that can supplement survey data in policy development and implementation to direct surveillance and intervention efforts.

Project description:We present qualitative research findings on care-seeking and treatment uptake for pneumonia, diarrhoea and malaria among children under 5 in Kenya, Nigeria and Niger. The study aimed to determine the barriers caregivers face in accessing treatment for these conditions; to identify local solutions that facilitate more timely access to treatment; and to present these findings as a platform from which to develop context-specific strategies to improve care-seeking for childhood illness. Kenya, Nigeria and Niger are three high burden countries with low rates of related treatment coverage, particularly in underserved areas. Data were collected in Homa Bay County in Nyanza Province, Kenya; in Kebbi and Cross River States, Nigeria; and in the Maradi and Tillabéri regions of Niger. Primary caregivers of children under 5 who did not regularly engage with health services or present their child at a health facility during illness episodes were purposively selected for interview. Data underwent rigorous thematic analysis. We organise the identified barriers and related solutions by theme: financial barriers; distance/location of health facilities; socio-cultural barriers and gender dynamics; knowledge and information barriers; and health facility deterrents. The relative importance of each differed by locality. Participant suggested solutions ranged from community-level actions to facility-level and more policy-oriented actions, plus actions to change underlying problems such as social perceptions and practices and gender dynamics. We discuss the feasibility and implications of these suggested solutions. Given the high burden of childhood morbidity and mortality due to pneumonia, diarrhoea and malaria in Kenya, Nigeria and Niger, this study provides important insights relating to demand-side barriers and locally proposed solutions. Significant advancements are possible when communities participate in both problem identification and resolution, and are engaged as important partners in improving child health and survival.

Project description:BackgroundMalaria, acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and diarrhoea are the leading causes of morbidity and mortality among children under 5 years old. Estimates of the malaria incidence are available from a previous study conducted in southern Malawi in the absence of community-led malaria control strategies; however, the incidence of the other diseases is lacking, owing to understudying and competing disease priorities. Extensive malaria control measures through a community participation strategy were implemented in Chikwawa, southern Malawi from May 2016 to reduce parasite prevalence and incidence. This study assessed the incidence of clinical malaria, ARIs and acute diarrhoea among under-five children in a rural community involved in malaria control through community participation.MethodsA prospective cohort study was conducted from September 2017 to May 2019 in Chikwawa district, southern Malawi. Children aged 6-48 months were recruited from a series of repeated cross-sectional household surveys. Recruited children were followed up two-monthly for 1 year to record details of any clinic visits to designated health facilities. Incidence of clinical malaria, ARIs and diarrhoea per child-years at risk was estimated, compared between age groups, area of residence and time.ResultsA total of 274 out of 281 children recruited children had complete results and contributed 235.7 child-years. Malaria incidence was 0.5 (95% CI (0.4, 0.5)) cases per child-years at risk, (0.04 in 6.0-11.9 month-olds, 0.5 in 12.0-23.9 month-olds, 0.6 in 24.0-59.9 month-olds). Incidences of ARIs and diarrhoea were 0.3 (95% CI (0.2, 0.3)), (0.1 in 6.0-11.9 month-olds, 0.4 in 12.0-23.9 month-olds, 0.3 in 24.0-59.9 month-olds), and 0.2 (95% CI (0.2, 0.3)), (0.1 in 6.0-11.9 month-olds, 0.3 in 12.0-23.9 month-olds, 0.2 in 24.0-59.9 month-olds) cases per child-years at risk, respectively. There were temporal variations of malaria and ARI incidence and an overall decrease over time.ConclusionIn comparison to previous studies, there was a lower incidence of clinical malaria in Chikwawa. The incidence of ARIs and diarrhoea were also low and decreased over time. The results are promising because they highlight the importance of community participation and the integration of malaria prevention strategies in contributing to disease burden reduction.

Project description:IntroductionThe last few years have witnessed rapid scaling-up of key malaria interventions in several African countries following increases in development assistance. However, there is only limited country-specific information on the health impact of expanded coverage of these interventions.MethodsPaediatric admission data were assembled from 4 hospitals in Malawi reflecting different malaria ecologies. Trends in monthly clinical malaria admissions between January 2000 and December 2010 were analysed using time-series models controlling for covariates related to climate and service use to establish whether changes in admissions can be related to expanded coverage of interventions aimed at reducing malaria infection.ResultsIn 3 of 4 sites there was an increase in clinical malaria admission rates. Results from time series models indicate a significant month-to-month increase in the mean clinical malaria admission rates at two hospitals (trend P<0.05). At these hospitals clinical malaria admissions had increased from 2000 by 41% to 100%. Comparison of changes in malaria risk and ITN coverage appear to correspond to a lack of disease declines over the period. Changes in intervention coverage within hospital catchments showed minimal increases in ITN coverage from <6% across all sites in 2000 to maximum of 33% at one hospital site by 2010. Additionally, malaria transmission intensity remained unchanged between 2000-2010 across all sites.DiscussionDespite modest increases in coverage of measures to reduce infection there has been minimal changes in paediatric clinical malaria cases in four hospitals in Malawi. Studies across Africa are increasingly showing a mixed set of impact results and it is important to assemble more data from more sites to understand the wider implications of malaria funding investment. We also caution that impact surveillance should continue in areas where intervention coverage is increasing with time, for example Malawi, as decline may become evident within a period when coverage reaches optimal levels.

Dataset Information

Modelling the effect of malaria endemicity on spatial variations in childhood fever, diarrhoea and pneumonia in Malawi.

Publications

Modelling the effect of malaria endemicity on spatial variations in childhood fever, diarrhoea and pneumonia in Malawi.

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