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Panaceas and diversification of environmental policy.

ABSTRACT: We consider panacea formation in the framework of adaptive learning and decision for social-ecological systems (SESs). Institutions for managing such systems must address multiple timescales of ecological change, as well as features of the social community in which the ecosystem policy problem is embedded. Response of the SES to each candidate institution must be modeled and treated as a stochastic process with unknown parameters to be estimated. A fundamental challenge is to design institutions that are not vulnerable to capture by subsets of the community that self-organize to direct the institution against the overall social interest. In a world of episodic structural change, such as SESs, adaptive learning can lock in to a single institution, model, or parameter estimate. Policy diversification, leading to escape from panacea traps, can come from monitoring indicators of episodic change on slow timescales, minimax regret decision making, active experimentation to accelerate model identification, mechanisms for broadening the set of models or institutions under consideration, and processes for discovery of new institutions and technologies for ecosystem management. It is difficult to take all of these factors into account, but the discipline that comes with the attempt to model the coupled social-ecological dynamics forces policy makers to confront all conceivable responses. This process helps induce the modesty needed to avoid panacea traps while supporting systematic effort to improve resource management in the public interest.

SUBMITTER: Brock WA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2000546 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Panaceas and diversification of environmental policy.

Brock William A WA Carpenter Stephen R SR

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20070919 39

We consider panacea formation in the framework of adaptive learning and decision for social-ecological systems (SESs). Institutions for managing such systems must address multiple timescales of ecological change, as well as features of the social community in which the ecosystem policy problem is embedded. Response of the SES to each candidate institution must be modeled and treated as a stochastic process with unknown parameters to be estimated. A fundamental challenge is to design institutions ...[more]

PMID: 17881581

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Project description:The Chinese government projected 30% of total consumed potatoes as a staple food (PSF) by 2020. We comprehensively assessed the potential impacts of PSF on rice and flour consumption, rice and wheat planting, energy and nutrient supply, irrigation-water, chemical nitrogen (N), phosphorus pentoxide (P2O5) and potassium oxide (K2O) fertilizer inputs and total greenhouse gases (GHG) emission for potatoes, rice and wheat, by assuming different proportions of potato substitutes for rice and flour. The results showed that per capita, 2.9 ± 0.3 and 4.7 ± 0.5 kg more potatoes per year would enter the Chinese staple-food diet, under the government's target. PSF consumed are expected to reach 5.2 ± 0.7 Tg yr-1, equivalent to substituting potatoes for 4.2 ± 0.8-8.5 ± 0.8 Tg yr-1 wheat and 5.1 ± 0.9-10.1 ± 1.8 Tg yr-1 rice under different scenarios. While this substitution can increase the nutrient supply index by 63% towards nutrient reference values, it may induce no significant effect on staple-food energy supply with lower chemical fertilizer (except for K2O) and irrigation-water inputs and GHG emissions in different substitution scenarios than the business as usual scenario. The reduction in rice and wheat demands lead to wheat in the North China Plain and early rice decrease by 6.1-11.4% and 12.1-24.1%, respectively. The total GHG reduction is equal to 1.1-9.0% of CO2 equivalent associated with CH4 and N2O emitted from the Chinese agroecosystem in 2005. The saved irrigation water for three crops compared to 2012 reaches the total water use of 17.9 ± 4.9-21.8 ± 5.9 million people in 2015. More N fertilizer, irrigation-water, and GHG can be reduced, if the PSF ratio is increased to 50% together with potato yield improves to the optimal level. Our results implied that the PSF policy is worth doing not only because of the healthier diets, but also to mitigate resource inputs and GHG emissions and it also supports agricultural structure adjustments in the areas of irrigated wheat on the North China Plain and early rice across China, designed to increase the adaptability to climate change.

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Panaceas and diversification of environmental policy.

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Panaceas and diversification of environmental policy.

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