Project description:In South Africa (SA) universal access to treatment for HIV-infected individuals in need has yet to be achieved. Currently ~1 million receive treatment, but an additional 1.6 million are in need. It is being debated whether to use a universal 'test and treat' (T&T) strategy to try to eliminate HIV in SA; treatment reduces infectivity and hence transmission. Under a T&T strategy all HIV-infected individuals would receive treatment whether in need or not. This would require treating 5 million individuals almost immediately and providing treatment for several decades. We use a validated mathematical model to predict impact and costs of: (i) a universal T&T strategy and (ii) achieving universal access to treatment. Using modeling the WHO has predicted a universal T&T strategy in SA would eliminate HIV within a decade, and (after 40 years) cost ~$10 billion less than achieving universal access. In contrast, we predict a universal T&T strategy in SA could eliminate HIV, but take 40 years and cost ~$12 billion more than achieving universal access. We determine the difference in predictions is because the WHO has under-estimated survival time on treatment and ignored the risk of resistance. We predict, after 20 years, ~2 million individuals would need second-line regimens if a universal T&T strategy is implemented versus ~1.5 million if universal access is achieved. Costs need to be realistically estimated and multiple evaluation criteria used to compare 'treatment as prevention' with other prevention strategies. Before implementing a universal T&T strategy, which may not be sustainable, we recommend striving to achieve universal access to treatment as quickly as possible. We predict achieving universal access to treatment would be a very effective 'treatment as prevention' approach and bring the HIV epidemic in SA close to elimination, preventing ~4 million infections after 20 years and ~11 million after 40 years.
Project description:BackgroundIn high-income settings, the spectrum of morbidity and mortality experienced by Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV)-infected individuals receiving combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) has switched from predominantly AIDS-related to non-AIDS-related conditions. In the context of universal access to care, we evaluated whether that shift would apply in Brazil, a middle-income country with universal access to treatment, as compared to France.MethodsTwo hospital-based cohorts of HIV-infected individuals were used for this analysis: the ANRS CO3 Aquitaine Cohort in South Western France and the Evandro Chagas Research Institute (IPEC) Cohort of the Oswaldo Cruz Foundation in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Severe morbid events (AIDS- and non-AIDS-related) were defined as all clinical diagnoses associated with a hospitalization of ?48 hours. Trends in the incidence rate of events and their determinants were estimated while adjusting for within-subject correlation using generalized estimating equations models with an auto-regressive correlation structure and robust standard errors.ResultBetween January 2000 and December 2008, 7812 adult patients were followed for a total of 41,668 person-years (PY) of follow-up. Throughout the study period, 90% of the patients were treated with cART. The annual incidence rate of AIDS and non-AIDS events, and of deaths significantly decreased over the years, from 6.2, 21.1, and 1.9 AIDS, non-AIDS events, and deaths per 100 PY in 2000 to 4.3, 14.9, and 1.5/100 PY in 2008. The annual incidence rates of non-AIDS events surpassed that of AIDS-events during the entire study period. High CD4 cell counts were associated with a lower incidence rate of AIDS and non-AIDS events as well as with lower rates of specific non-AIDS events, such as bacterial, hepatic, viral, neurological, and cardiovascular conditions. Adjusted analysis showed that severe morbidity was associated with lower CD4 counts and higher plasma HIV RNAs but not with setting (IPEC versus Aquitaine).ConclusionsAs information on severe morbidities for HIV-infected patients remain scarce, data on hospitalizations are valuable to identify priorities for case management and to improve the quality of life of patients with a chronic disease requiring life-long treatment. Immune restoration is highly effective in reducing AIDS and non-AIDS severe morbid events irrespective of the setting.
Project description:The Brazilian AIDS epidemic is characterized by significant geographic contrasts: a reduction in incidence and mortality in the epicenter (southeast) and an increase in the northeast. HIV-1-transmitted drug resistance (TDR) and genetic diversity were investigated among 106 antiretroviral (ARV)-naive patients from Maranhão State, northeast. The HIV-1 protease (PR) and reverse transcriptase (RT) regions were sequenced; subtypes were assigned by REGA/phylogenetic analysis. TDR to the nucleoside/nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI/NNRTI) and protease inhibitor (PI) was identified by the Calibrated Population Resistance tool (Stanford). The median age was 31 years (range 18-72), with 54.7% women, 78.3% heterosexual transmission, and 17.9% men who have sex with men (MSM). Around 30% had <350 CD4(+) T cells/?l and 47.2% had plasma viral loads ?10,000 copies/ml. The TDR rate was 3.8% (4/106; CI 95%, 1.2-8.9%) (three males, two of them MSM). Only single class mutations to NRTI (M184V; T215S) or NNRTI (K103S/N) were detected. Subtype B represented 81.1% (86/106), F1 1.9% (2/106), and C 2.8% (3/106); 14.2% were mosaics: 13 BF1 and 2 BC. Surveillance of TDR and HIV-1 genetic diversity is important to improve control strategies regionally.
Project description:To inform the level of attention to be given by antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs to HIV drug resistance (HIVDR), we used an individual-level model to estimate its impact on future AIDS deaths, HIV incidence, and ART program costs in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) for a range of program situations. We applied this to SSA through the Spectrum-Goals model. In a situation in which current levels of pretreatment HIVDR are over 10% (mean, 15%), 16% of AIDS deaths (890 000 deaths), 9% of new infections (450 000), and 8% ($6.5 billion) of ART program costs in SSA in 2016-2030 will be attributable to HIVDR.
Project description:Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is considered the treatment that enables people living with HIV (PLHIV) to lead a "normal life". In spite of the availability of free treatment, patients in resource-poor settings may continue to incur additional costs to realize a normal and full life. This article describes the monetary expenses and psychosocial distress people on free ART bear to live normally. We conducted in-depth interviews with 50 PLHIV on ART. We found that the demands of treatment, poverty, stigma, and health-system constraints interplay to necessitate that PLHIV bear continuous monetary and psychosocial costs to realize local values that define normal life. In the context, access to free medicines is not sufficient to enable PLHIV in resource-poor settings to normalize life. Policy makers and providers should consider proactively complementing free ART with mechanisms that empower PLHIV economically, enhance their problem-solving capacities, and provide an enabling environment if the objective of normalizing life is to be achieved.
Project description:We studied the influence of AIDS restriction genes (ARGs) CCR5-Delta32, CCR2-64I, SDF1-3'A, IL10-5'A, CX3CR1-V249I, CX3CR1-T280M, and MDR1-C3435T and haplotypes of the CCR5 P1 promoter and RANTES variants -403A, In1.1C, 3'222C, and -28G among HIV-1 infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in the Multicenter AIDS Cohort Study (MACS) and the Multicenter Hemophilia Cohort Study (MHCS). Our results indicate that several ARGs also influence therapy efficacy (ie, the success in viral suppression) and subsequent progression to AIDS while on HAART. CCR5-Delta32 decreased time to viral suppression (<200 HIV RNA copies/mL, relative hazard [RH]=1.40; P=0.008) and was protective against AIDS (RH=0.11; P=or<0.0001), whereas the CCR5 P1 haplotype was associated with delayed viral suppression (RNA<50 copies/mL, odds ratio [OR]=0.65; P=0.03) and accelerated time to AIDS (RH=2.68; P=0.02). SDF1-3'A reduced viral suppression (OR=0.61; P=0.02) and accelerated AIDS (RH=3.18; P=0.009). Accelerated AIDS progression was also observed with the RANTES haplotype carrying RANTES-IN1.1C and RANTES-3'222C (P=0.005 to 0.007). In contrast, the RANTES haplotype H1, which lacks suspected deleterious single-nucleotide polymorphisms, was protective against AIDS. CX3CR1-V249I seemed to accelerate viral suppression (RNA<50 copies/mL, OR=1.27; P=0.01). ARG influence after HAART suggests residual HIV-1 replication, and spread continues even in patients successfully suppressing detectable viral RNA.
Project description:BackgroundWe compared AIDS-related mortality rates in people living with HIV (PLHIV) starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Brazil during 2006-2015 and examined associated risk factors .MethodsData on ART use in PLHIV and AIDS mortality in Brazil was analysed with piecewise constant exponential models. Mortality rates and hazard ratios were estimated for 0-6, 6-12, 13-24, 25-36 and > 36 months of ART use and adjusted for region, age, sex, baseline CD4 cell count and calendar year of ART initiation. An additional analysis restricted to those with data on risk group was also performed.Results269,076 individuals were included in the analysis, 165,643 (62%) males and 103,433 (38%) females, with 1,783,305 person-years of follow-up time. 21,749 AIDS deaths were reported and 8898 deaths occurred in the first year of ART. The risk of death in the first six months decreased with early ART initiation; those starting treatment early with CD4 > 500 cells per μL had a hazard ratio of 0.06 (95% CI 0.05-0.07) compared with CD4 < 200 cells per μL. Older age, male sex, intravenous drug use and starting treatment in earlier calendar years were associated with higher mortality rates. People living in the North, Northeast and South of Brazil experienced significantly higher AIDS mortality rates than those in the Southeast (HR 1.44, [95% CI 1.35-1.54], 1.10 [1.05-1.16] and 1.22 [1.17-1.28] respectively).ConclusionsEarly treatment is likely to have contributed to the improved survival in PLHIV on ART, with the greatest benefits observed in women, younger age-groups and those living in the North.
Project description:'Universal' access to antiretroviral treatment (ART) has become the global standard for treating people living with HIV and achieving epidemic control; yet, findings from numerous 'test and treat' trials and implementation studies in sub-Saharan Africa suggest that bringing 'universal' access to ART to scale is more complex than anticipated. Using South Africa as a case example, we describe the research priorities and foci in the literature on expanded ART access. To do so, we adapted Arksey and O'Malley's six-stage scoping review framework to describe the peer-reviewed literature and opinion pieces on expanding access to ART in South Africa between 2000 and 2017. Data collection included systematic searches of two databases and hand-searching of a sub-sample of reference lists. We used an adapted socio-ecological thematic framework to categorize data according to where it located the challenges and opportunities of expanded ART eligibility: individual/client, health worker-client relationship, clinic/community context, health systems infrastructure and/or policy context. We included 194 research articles and 23 opinion pieces, of 1512 identified, addressing expanded ART access in South Africa. The peer-reviewed literature focused on the individual and health systems infrastructure; opinion pieces focused on changing roles of individuals, communities and health services implementers. We contextualized our findings through a consultative process with a group of researchers, HIV clinicians and programme managers to consider critical knowledge gaps. Unlike the published literature, the consultative process offered particular insights into the importance of researching and intervening in the relational aspects of HIV service delivery as South Africa's HIV programme expands. An overwhelming focus on individual and health systems infrastructure factors in the published literature on expanded ART access in South Africa may skew understanding of HIV programme shortfalls away from the relational aspects of HIV services delivery and delay progress with finding ways to leverage non-medical modalities for achieving HIV epidemic control.
Project description:Treatment options and therapeutic guidelines have evolved substantially since highly active antiretroviral treatment (HAART) became the standard of HIV care in 1996. We conducted the present population-based analysis to characterize the determinants of direct costs of HAART over time in British Columbia, Canada.We considered individuals ever receiving HAART in British Columbia from 1996 to 2011. Linear mixed-effects regression models were constructed to determine the effects of demographic indicators, clinical stage, and treatment characteristics on quarterly costs of HAART (in 2010$CDN) among individuals initiating in different temporal periods. The least-square mean values were estimated by CD4 category and over time for each temporal cohort.Longitudinal data on HAART recipients (N = 9601, 17.6% female, mean age at initiation = 40.5) were analyzed. Multiple regression analyses identified demographics, treatment adherence, and pharmacological class to be independently associated with quarterly HAART costs. Higher CD4 cell counts were associated with modestly lower costs among pre-HAART initiators [least-square means (95% confidence interval), CD4 >?500: 4674 (4632-4716); CD4: 350-499: 4765 (4721-4809) CD4: 200-349: 4826 (4780-4871); CD4 <200: 4809 (4759-4859)]; however these differences were not significant among post-2003 HAART initiators. Population-level mean costs increased through 2006 and stabilized post-2003 HAART initiators incurred quarterly costs up to 23% lower than pre-2000 HAART initiators in 2010.Our results highlight the magnitude of the temporal changes in HAART costs, and disparities between recent and pre-HAART initiators. This methodology can improve the precision of economic modeling efforts by using detailed cost functions for annual, population-level medication costs according to the distribution of clients by clinical stage and era of treatment initiation.
Project description:BackgroundBrazil became the first developing country to guarantee free and universal access to HIV/AIDS treatment, with antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) being delivered to nearly 190,000 patients. The analysis of ARV price evolution and market dynamics in Brazil can help anticipate issues soon to afflict other developing countries, as the 2010 revision of the World Health Organization guidelines shifts demand towards more expensive treatments, and, at the same time, current evolution of international legislation and trade agreements on intellectual property rights may reduce availability of generic drugs for HIV care.Methods and findingsOur analyses are based on effective prices paid for ARV procurement in Brazil between 1996 and 2009. Data panel structure was exploited to gather ex-ante and ex-post information and address various sources of statistical bias. In-difference estimation offered in-depth information on ARV market characteristics which significantly influence prices. Although overall ARV prices follow a declining trend, changing characteristics in the generic segment help explain recent increase in generic ARV prices. Our results show that generic suppliers are more likely to respond to factors influencing demand size and market competition, while originator suppliers tend to set prices strategically to offset compulsory licensing threats and generic competition.SignificanceIn order to guarantee the long term sustainability of access to antiretroviral treatment, our findings highlight the importance of preserving and stimulating generic market dynamics to sustain developing countries' bargaining power in price negotiations undertaken with originator companies.