Intuitions of probabilities shape expectations about the future at 12 months and beyond.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Teglas E
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2141924 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundClinical guidelines indicate that in patients with cancer-associated thrombosis (CAT), anticoagulant treatment should be continued beyond 6 months as long as the cancer is active. We aimed to analyse the safety of low-molecular-weight heparin (LMWH) beyond 12 months in patients with CAT.MethodsWe performed a post hoc analysis of consecutive CAT patients from October 2008 to December 2019. The primary outcome was the rate of clinically relevant bleeding (CRB), and we compared two periods (1-12 vs. 12-24 months). Hazard ratio (HR), competing risk analysis and sensitivity analyses were performed.ResultsOf the 588 patients included, 30.1% (n = 177) received LMWH beyond 12 months. The rate of CRB in the first 12 months compared to the 12-24 month period was 3.2 per 100 patients/month (95% CI 2.5-4.1) vs. 0.9 per 100 patients/month (95% CI 0.4-1.5), (P < 0.0001). The competing risk analysis of CRB comparing both periods showed a lower sub-distribution hazard ratio (SHR) during the period 12-24 months (SHR: 0.5, 95% CI: 0.3-0.8, P < 0.001).ConclusionIn patients with cancer-associated thrombosis under anticoagulant treatment with LMWH, the rate of clinically relevant bleeding and major bleeding were lower beyond 12 months.
| S-EPMC9727131 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Motivation and methodExisting rational expectations models cannot satisfactorily explain why political budget manipulations systematically raise re-election chances and only occur in "specific contexts". This paper offers a theoretical explanation by including unsophisticated voters into an opportunistic political cycle model; unsophisticated voters are unable to take the optimal behaviour of other agents (fully) into account, but may, nonetheless, vaguely suspect government deception.ResultsFirst, rationally expected manipulations are, on average, fruitless in equilibrium. By including unsophisticated voters we can, however, corroborate empirically found electoral effects of political budget manipulations. Second, unsophisticated voters become anxious and suspicious in an intransparent or uncertain world, but the government tries to "outperform" their scepticism by increasing budget manipulations in order to appear more competent and, ultimately, increase re-election chances. It is, therefore, not surprising that political budget cycles are observed in countries suffering from intransparencies such as developing countries or new democracies. Third and in addition, the model presented here predicts that political opportunism produces, unintentionally, a countercyclical policy effect in election years, thereby, for instance, alleviating the typical problem of policy procyclicality in developing countries.Additional contributionThe paper also offers a theoretical explanation for political distortions found in forecasts by US states. Based on overly optimistic revenue forecasts the incumbent state government can conduct expansionary fiscal policies in order to appear more competent prior to an upcoming election. Since the resulting deficit can only be observed afterwards, the government can effectively circumvent a constitutional balanced budget constraint. As a result, there are political forecast and budget cycles in the state. More generally, however, these findings may also apply to European countries where balanced budget constraints are or will be in place (for instance the debt brakes in Switzerland and Germany); similarly, they apply to the supra-national European Fiscal Compact of the European Union.
| S-EPMC6181349 | biostudies-literature
Project description:MOTIVATION: Abstract shape analysis allows efficient computation of a representative sample of low-energy foldings of an RNA molecule. More comprehensive information is obtained by computing shape probabilities, accumulating the Boltzmann probabilities of all structures within each abstract shape. Such information is superior to free energies because it is independent of sequence length and base composition. However, up to this point, computation of shape probabilities evaluates all shapes simultaneously and comes with a computation cost which is exponential in the length of the sequence. RESULTS: We device an approach called RapidShapes that computes the shapes above a specified probability threshold T by generating a list of promising shapes and constructing specialized folding programs for each shape to compute its share of Boltzmann probability. This aims at a heuristic improvement of runtime, while still computing exact probability values. CONCLUSION: Evaluating this approach and several substrategies, we find that only a small proportion of shapes have to be actually computed. For an RNA sequence of length 400, this leads, depending on the threshold, to a 10-138 fold speed-up compared with the previous complete method. Thus, probabilistic shape analysis has become feasible in medium-scale applications, such as the screening of RNA transcripts in a bacterial genome. AVAILABILITY: RapidShapes is available via http://bibiserv.cebitec.uni-bielefeld.de/rnashapes
| S-EPMC2828121 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The current study combines artificial language learning with visual world eyetracking to investigate acquisition of representations associating spoken words and visual referents using morphologically complex pseudowords. Pseudowords were constructed to consistently encode referential gender by means of suffixation for a set of imaginary figures that could be either male or female. During training, the frequency of exposure to pseudowords and their imaginary figure referents were manipulated such that a given word and its referent would be more likely to occur in either the masculine form or the feminine form, or both forms would be equally likely. Results show that these experience-based probabilities affect the formation of new representations to the extent that participants were faster at recognizing a referent whose gender was consistent with the induced expectation than a referent whose gender was inconsistent with this expectation. Disambiguating gender information available from the suffix did not mask the induced expectations. Eyetracking data provide additional evidence that such expectations surface during online lexical processing. Taken together, these findings indicate that experience-based information is accessible during the earliest stages of processing, and are consistent with the view that language comprehension depends on the activation of perceptual memory traces.
| S-EPMC4993866 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundHealth professionals need adequate competence to support breastfeeding beyond infancy. There is no established instrument to measure health professionals' competence regarding long-term breastfeeding. To respond to this shortcoming, the Long-Term Breastfeeding Competence Scale (LBCS) was developed.Research aimTo develop and pilot an instrument that measures public health nurses' competence related to breastfeeding beyond 12 months in order to provide adequate breastfeeding counseling for families.MethodsThis study was conducted as a cross-sectional online survey on public health nurses working in maternity and/or child health clinics. The relevance and clarity of the LBCS were assessed by an expert panel (N = 6). Public health nurses (N = 197) completed the LBCS, which consisted of a knowledge and skills dimension and an attitude dimension. Descriptive statistics were used to describe the characteristics of the study sample. The conceptual validity of the knowledge and skills dimension was assessed using the dichotomous Rasch analysis, and attitude dimension using the exploratory factor analysis. Internal consistency was evaluated using Cronbach's alpha. The distribution of the items was summarized by descriptive statistics.ResultsAccording to expert panel evaluations, the LBCS was found to meet the requirements for relevance and clarity (S-CVI 0.90). The internal consistency of the instrument was at a good level (α = 0.796) and met the requirements set for a new instrument.ConclusionThe LBCS is appropriate to determine public health nurses' competence related to breastfeeding beyond 12 months. The LBCS can be used to identify the need for education concerning breastfeeding beyond 12 months.
| S-EPMC11340241 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ImportanceChildren who receive a diagnosis of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder may have a characteristic facial appearance in addition to neurodevelopmental impairment. It is not well understood whether there is a gradient of facial characteristics of children who did not receive a diagnosis of fetal alcohol spectrum disorder but who were exposed to a range of common drinking patterns during pregnancy.ObjectiveTo examine the association between dose, frequency, and timing of prenatal alcohol exposure and craniofacial phenotype in 12-month-old children.Design, setting, and participantsA prospective cohort study was performed from January 1, 2011, to December 30, 2014, among mothers recruited in the first trimester of pregnancy from low-risk, public maternity clinics in metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. A total of 415 white children were included in this analysis of 3-dimensional craniofacial images taken at 12 months of age. Analysis was performed with objective, holistic craniofacial phenotyping using dense surface models of the face and head. Partial least square regression models included covariates known to affect craniofacial shape.ExposuresLow, moderate to high, or binge-level alcohol exposure in the first trimester or throughout pregnancy.Main outcomes and measuresAnatomical differences in global and regional craniofacial shape between children of women who abstained from alcohol during pregnancy and children with varying levels of prenatal alcohol exposure.ResultsOf the 415 children in the study (195 girls and 220 boys; mean [SD] age, 363.0 [8.3] days), a consistent association between craniofacial shape and prenatal alcohol exposure was observed at almost any level regardless of whether exposure occurred only in the first trimester or throughout pregnancy. Regions of difference were concentrated around the midface, nose, lips, and eyes. Directional visualization showed that these differences corresponded to general recession of the midface and superior displacement of the nose, especially the tip of the nose, indicating shortening of the nose and upturning of the nose tip. Differences were most pronounced between groups with no exposure and groups with low exposure in the first trimester (forehead), moderate to high exposure in the first trimester (eyes, midface, chin, and parietal region), and binge-level exposure in the first trimester (chin).Conclusions and relevancePrenatal alcohol exposure, even at low levels, can influence craniofacial development. Although the clinical significance of these findings is yet to be determined, they support the conclusion that for women who are or may become pregnant, avoiding alcohol is the safest option.
| S-EPMC6583660 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Humans can use an intuitive sense of statistics to make predictions about uncertain future events, a cognitive skill that underpins logical and mathematical reasoning. Recent research shows that some of these abilities for statistical inferences can emerge in preverbal infants and non-human primates such as apes and capuchins. An important question is therefore whether animals share the full complement of intuitive reasoning abilities demonstrated by humans, as well as what evolutionary contexts promote the emergence of such skills. Here, we examined whether free-ranging rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) can use probability information to infer the most likely outcome of a random lottery, in the first test of whether primates can make such inferences in the absence of direct prior experience. We developed a novel expectancy-violation looking time task, adapted from prior studies of infants, in order to assess the monkeys' expectations. In Study 1, we confirmed that monkeys (n = 20) looked similarly at different sampled items if they had no prior knowledge about the population they were drawn from. In Study 2, monkeys (n = 80) saw a dynamic 'lottery' machine containing a mix of two types of fruit outcomes, and then saw either the more common fruit (expected trial) or the relatively rare fruit (unexpected trial) fall from the machine. We found that monkeys looked longer when they witnessed the unexpected outcome. In Study 3, we confirmed that this effect depended on the causal relationship between the sample and the population, not visual mismatch: monkeys (n = 80) looked equally at both outcomes if the experimenter pulled the sampled item from her pocket. These results reveal that rhesus monkeys spontaneously use information about probability to reason about likely outcomes, and show how comparative studies of nonhumans can disentangle the evolutionary history of logical reasoning capacities.
| S-EPMC6738956 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background: There is ongoing debate regarding the optimal antiplatelet strategy beyond 12 months in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) who undergo successful percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). This study therefore aimed to investigate the clinical outcomes of single (SAPT) vs. dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) beyond 12 months in patients with stable AMI and second-generation drug-eluting stent (DES) implantation. Methods: Of 13,104 patients from the Korea Acute Myocardial Infarction Registry-National Institutes of Health database, we selected 4,604 patients who underwent PCI with second-generation DES and exhibited no adverse clinical events within 12 months; they were classified into SAPT (aspirin or clopidogrel) or DAPT (aspirin and clopidogrel) groups. The primary endpoints were major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCE), including the composite of all-cause death, myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke between 12 and 36 months. Results: The SAPT group (n = 1,862) was associated with a significantly lower risk of MACCE between 12 and 36 months [4.2 vs. 8.5%, hazard ratio (HR): 0.47, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.37-0.61; p < 0.001] than the DAPT group (n = 2,742). The results were consistent after adjusting for confounders through multivariable and propensity score matching analysis. Moreover, in patients with complex features (defined as an unprotected left main PCI, implanted stent length of ≥38 mm, multivessel PCI, or ≥3 stents per patients), the SAPT group (n = 678) also demonstrated a significantly lower risk of MACCE between 12 and 36 months (4.9 vs. 9.9%, HR: 0.46, CI: 0.31-0.68, p < 0.001) than the DAPT group (n = 1,167). Conclusions: In patients with AMI who underwent successful PCI with second-generation DES and exhibited no adverse clinical events within 12 months, the use of SAPT was associated with a significantly lower MACCE between 12 and 36 months compared with the use of DAPT.
| S-EPMC8652119 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectivesTo provide valid estimates of the 12-month prevalence of passive suicidal ideation among older adults, without conditioning on depression status, using the Health and Retirement Study (HRS).MethodsData come from the 2012 HRS (n = 17,434) and 2004/5 Baltimore Epidemiologic Catchment Area (ECA) Study (n = 755). In the HRS, passive suicidal ideation (i.e., thought a lot about death-your own, someone else's, or death in general) is only assessed on respondents who reported dysphoria/anhedonia; in the ECA, ideation is assessed on all respondents, regardless of depression. We compare two approaches to estimating the 12-month prevalence of passive suicidal ideation in the HRS without conditioning on depression symptoms: 1) a probit selection model within the HRS, and 2) a prediction model developed using appended ECA data applied to the HRS.ResultsUsing observed data alone on those who screened positive for depression, 6% of older adults reported passive suicidal ideation in the past year. Depending on the approach used, between 5.4% and 9.2% of HRS respondents who screened negative for depression would have reported passive suicidal ideation had they been assessed. Correcting for this selection bias, between 10.9% and 13.4% of U.S. adults over age 50 experienced passive suicidal ideation in 2012.ConclusionsPopulation surveillance of suicidal ideation among older adults is biased by survey approaches that only assess ideation in the context of depression.
| S-EPMC6842696 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BACKGROUND:Within Population Health Management (PHM) initiatives, stakeholders from various sectors apply PHM strategies, via which services are reorganised and integrated in order to improve population health and quality of care while reducing cost growth. This study unravelled how stakeholders' expectations and prior experiences influenced stakeholders intended PHM strategies. METHODS:This study used realist principles. Nine Dutch PHM initiatives participated. Seventy stakeholders (mainly executive level) from seven different stakeholder groups (healthcare insurers, hospitals, primary care groups, municipalities, patient representative organisations, regional businesses and program managers of the PHM initiatives) were interviewed. Associations between expectations, prior experiences and intended strategies of the various stakeholder groups were identified through analyses of the interviews. RESULTS:Stakeholders' expectations, their underlying explanations and intended strategies could be categorized into four themes: 1. Regional collaboration; 2. Governance structures and stakeholder roles; 3. Regional learning environments, and 4. Financial and regulative conditions. Stakeholders agreed on the long-term expectations of PHM development. Differences in short- and middle-term expectations, and prior experiences were identified between stakeholder groups and within the stakeholder group healthcare insurers. These differences influenced stakeholders' intended strategies. For instance, healthcare insurers that intended to stay close to the business of care had encountered barriers in pushing PHM e.g. lack of data insight, and expected that staying in control of the purchasing process was the best way to achieve value for money. Healthcare insurers that were more keen to invest in experiments with data-technology, new forms of payment and accountability had encountered positive experiences in establishing regional responsibility and expected this to be a strong driver for establishing improvements in regional health and a vital and economic competitive region. CONCLUSION:This is the first study that revealed insight into the differences and similarities between stakeholder groups' expectations, experiences and intended strategies. These insights can be used to improve the pivotal cooperation within and between stakeholder groups for PHM.
| S-EPMC6815420 | biostudies-literature