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Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases.

ABSTRACT: Control of animal-born diseases is a major challenge faced by applied ecologists and public health managers. To improve cost-effectiveness, the effort required to control such pathogens needs to be predicted as accurately as possible. In this context, we reviewed the anti-rabies vaccination schemes applied around the world during the past 25 years.We contrasted predictions from classic approaches based on theoretical population ecology (which governs rabies control to date) with a newly developed individual-based model. Our spatially explicit approach allowed for the reproduction of pattern formation emerging from a pathogen's spread through its host population.We suggest that a much lower management effort could eliminate the disease than that currently in operation. This is supported by empirical evidence from historic field data. Adapting control measures to the new prediction would save one-third of resources in future control programmes.The reason for the lower prediction is the spatial structure formed by spreading infections in spatially arranged host populations. It is not the result of technical differences between models.Synthesis and applications. For diseases predominantly transmitted by neighbourhood interaction, our findings suggest that the emergence of spatial structures facilitates eradication. This may have substantial implications for the cost-effectiveness of existing disease management schemes, and suggests that when planning management strategies consideration must be given to methods that reflect the spatial nature of the pathogen-host system.

SUBMITTER: Eisinger D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2326892 | biostudies-literature | 2008 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases.

Eisinger Dirk D Thulke Hans-Hermann HH

The Journal of applied ecology 20080401 2

Control of animal-born diseases is a major challenge faced by applied ecologists and public health managers. To improve cost-effectiveness, the effort required to control such pathogens needs to be predicted as accurately as possible. In this context, we reviewed the anti-rabies vaccination schemes applied around the world during the past 25 years.We contrasted predictions from classic approaches based on theoretical population ecology (which governs rabies control to date) with a newly develope ...[more]

PMID: 18784795

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Project description:ObjectiveTo summarise the extent and quality of evidence on the association between prison cell spatial density (a measure of crowding) and infectious and communicable diseases transmission among prisoners.DesignSystematic review.Data sourcesEmbase, PubMed, Medline, Scopus, Web of Science, PsycINFO, PsycExtra, ProQuest Databases, ProQuest Dissertations and Theses Global, Index to Legal Periodicals, InformitOnline, Cochrane Library, Criminal Justice Abstracts and ICONDA were searched to 31 December 2018.Eligibility criteriaStudies that reported on the association between prison cell spatial density (measured in square feet or square metres of cell floor area per person) and infectious and communicable diseases in juvenile and adult populations incarcerated in a correctional facility.Data extraction and synthesisA review protocol was developed in consultation with an advisory panel. Two reviewers independently extracted data and used the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council's (NHMRC) checklist to critically appraise individual studies. An assessment of the overall body of the evidence was conducted using the NHMRC's Evidence Scale and Statement Form.ResultsA total of 5126 articles were initially identified with seven included in the review from Pakistan (2003), Chile (2016), Nigeria (2012, 2013) and the USA (1980s). Infectious and communicable disease outcomes included pneumococcal disease/acute pneumonia, Mycobacterium tuberculosis, latent tuberculosis infection, infectious skin conditions and contagious disease reporting to the prison clinic. Five articles reported statistically significant positive associations but were countered by associations possibly being explained by chance, bias or confounding factors. Heterogeneity prevented meta-analysis.ConclusionOverall, the body of evidence provides some support for an association between prison cell special density and infectious and communicable diseases, but care should be taken in the interpretation and transferability of the findings. Future research and policy responses should adequately consider prospective mediating factors implicated in associations between cell spatial density and health effects.

Project description:ObjectivesTo document lessons from the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) by determining factors associated with successful surveillance programme globally as well as at national and subnational levels. The process of conducting surveillance has been previously recognised in the literature as important for the success of polio surveillance activities.DesignA cross-sectional survey with closed and open-ended questions.SettingsSurvey of persons involved in the implementation of surveillance activities under the GPEI at the global level and in seven low-income and middle-income countries.ParticipantsIndividuals (n=802) with ≥12 months of experience implementing surveillance objective of the GPEI between 1988 and 2019.Main outcome measures and methodsQuantitative and qualitative analyses were conducted. Logistic regression analyses were used to assess factors associated with implementation process as a factor for successful surveillance programme. Horizontal analysis was used to analyse qualitative free-text responses on facilitators and barriers identified for conducting surveillance activities successfully.ResultsOverall, participants who reported challenges relating to GPEI programme characteristics had 50% lower odds of reporting implementation process as a factor for successful surveillance (adjusted OR (AOR): 0.50, 95% CI: 0.29 to 0.85). Challenges were mainly perceptions of external intervention source (ie, surveillance perceived as 'foreign' to local communities) and the complexity of surveillance processes (ie, surveillance required several intricate steps). Those who reported organisational challenges were almost two times more likely to report implementation process as a factor for successful surveillance (AOR: 1.89, 95% CI: 1.07 to 3.31) overall, and over threefolds (AOR: 3.32, 95% CI: 1.14 to 9.66) at the national level.ConclusionsProgramme characteristics may have impeded the process of conducting surveillance under the GPEI, while organisational characteristics may have facilitated the process. Future surveillance programmes should be designed with inputs from local communities and frontline implementers.

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Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases.

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Spatial pattern formation facilitates eradication of infectious diseases.

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