Accuracy of models for the 2001 foot-and-mouth epidemic.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Tildesley MJ
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2376304 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Similar Datasets
Project description:ObjectivesTo understand the health and social consequences of the 2001 foot and mouth disease epidemic for a rural population.DesignLongitudinal qualitative analysis.SettingNorth Cumbria, the worst affected area in Britain.SamplePurposive sample of 54 respondents divided in six demographically balanced rural occupational and population groups.Main outcome measures3071 weekly diaries contributed over 18 months; 72 semistructured interviews (with the 54 diarists and 18 others); 12 group discussions with diaristsResultsThe disease epidemic was a human tragedy, not just an animal one. Respondents' reports showed that life after the foot and mouth disease epidemic was accompanied by distress, feelings of bereavement, fear of a new disaster, loss of trust in authority and systems of control, and the undermining of the value of local knowledge. Distress was experienced across diverse groups well beyond the farming community. Many of these effects continued to feature in the diaries throughout the 18 month period.ConclusionsThe use of a rural citizens' panel allowed data capture from a wide spectrum of the rural population and showed that a greater number of workers and residents had traumatic experiences than has previously been reported. Recommendations for future disaster management include joint service reviews of what counts as a disaster, regular NHS and voluntary sector sharing of intelligence, debriefing and peer support for front line workers, increased community involvement in disposal site or disaster management, and wider, more flexible access to regeneration funding and rural health outreach work.
| S-EPMC1289318 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A case-control study of the factors associated with the risk of a bovine tuberculosis (TB) breakdown in cattle herds was undertaken within the randomized badger culling trial (RBCT). TB breakdowns occurring prior to the 2001 foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in three RBCT triplets were eligible to be cases; controls were selected from the same RBCT area. Data from 151 case farms and 117 control farms were analysed using logistic regression. The strongest factors associated with an increased TB risk were movement of cattle onto the farm from markets or farm sales, operating a farm over multiple premises and the use of either covered yard or 'other' housing types. Spreading artificial fertilizers or farmyard manure on grazing land were both associated with decreased risk. These first case-control results from the RBCT will be followed by similar analyses as more data become available.
| S-EPMC1629052 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Enterovirus (EV) infections are a major threat to global public health, and are responsible for mild respiratory illness, hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD), acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis, aseptic meningitis, myocarditis, severe neonatal sepsis-like disease, and acute flaccid paralysis epidemic. Among them, HFMD is a common pediatric infectious disease caused by EVs of the family Picornaviridae including EV-A71, coxsackieviruses (CV)-A2, CV-A6, CV-A10, and CV-A16. Due to lack of vaccines and specific antiviral therapeutics, millions of children still suffer from HFMD. Innate immune system detects foreign invaders by means of a relatively limited number of sensors, such as pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) [e.g., retinoic acid-inducible gene I (RIG-I)-like receptors (RLRs), Toll-like receptors (TLRs), and NOD-like receptors (NLRs)] and even some secreted functional proteins. However, a range of research, highlighted in this review, suggest that EV-associated with HFMD have evolved different strategies to avoid detection by innate immunity via different proteases (e.g., 2A, 3C, 2C, and 3D). Ongoing efforts to better understand virus-host interactions that control innate immunity and then distill how that influences HFMD development promises to have real-world significance. In this review, we address this complex topic in nine sections including multiple proteins associated with PRR and type I interferon (IFN) signaling. Recognizing how EVs linked to HFMD evade host innate immune system, we also describe the interactions between them and, finally, suggest future directions to better inform drug development and public health.
| S-EPMC6186807 | biostudies-other
Project description:An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease caused by serotype O virus occurred in cattle and pigs in South Korea during November 2010-April 2011. The highest rates of case and virus detection were observed 44 days after the first case was detected. Detection rates declined rapidly after culling and completion of a national vaccination program.
| S-EPMC3647416 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The objective of this study was to quantify the extent to which the genetic diversity of foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) arising over the course of infection of an individual animal becomes fixed, is transmitted to other animals, and thereby accumulates over the course of an outbreak. Complete consensus sequences of 23 genomes (each of 8,200 nucleotides) of FMDV were recovered directly from epithelium tissue acquired from 21 farms infected over a nearly 7-month period during the 2001 FMDV outbreak in the United Kingdom. An analysis of these consensus sequences revealed very few apparently ambiguous sites but clear evidence of 197 nucleotide substitutions at 191 different sites. We estimated the rate of nucleotide substitution to be 2.26 x 10(-5) per site per day (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.75 x 10(-5) to 2.80 x 10(-5)) and nucleotide substitutions to accrue in the consensus sequence at an average rate of 1.5 substitutions per farm infection. This is a sufficiently high rate showing that detailed histories of the transmission pathways can be reliably reconstructed. Coalescent methods indicated that the date at which FMDV first infected livestock in the United Kingdom was 7 February 2001 (95% CI, 20 January to 19 February 2001), which was identical to estimates obtained on the basis of purely clinical evidence. Nucleotide changes appeared to have occurred evenly across the genome, and within the open reading frame, the ratio of nonsynonymous-to-synonymous change was 0.09. The ability to recover particular transmission pathways of acutely acting RNA pathogens from genetic data will help resolve uncertainties about how virus is spread and could help in the control of future epidemics.
| S-EPMC1642183 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Hand, foot and mouth (HFM) disease is a common childhood illness. The paper aims to capture the spatiotemporal characters, and investigate the influence factors of the HFM epidemic in 15 regions of Xinjiang province from 2008 to 2017, China. Descriptive statistical analysis shows that the children aged 0-5 years have a higher HFM incidence, mostly boys. The male-female ratio is 1.5:1. Through the scanning method, we obtain the first cluster high-risk areas. The cluster time is usually from May to August every year. A spatiotemporal model is proposed to analyze the impact of meteorological factors on HFM disease. Comparing with the spatial model, the model is more effective in terms of R2, AIC, deviation, and mean-square error. Among meteorological factors, the number of HFM cases generally increases with the intensity of rainfall. As the temperature increases, there are more HFM patients. Some regions are mostly influenced by wind speed. Further, another spatiotemporal model is introduced to investigate the relationship between HFM disease and socioeconomic factors. The results show that socioeconomic factors have significant influence on the disease. In most areas, the risk of HFM disease tends to rise with the increase of the gross domestic product, the ratios of urban population and tertiary industry. The incidence is closely related to the number of beds and population density in some regions. The higher the ratio of primary school, the lower the number of HFM cases. Based on the above analysis, it is the key measure to prevent and control the spread of the HFM epidemic in high-risk areas, and influence factors should not be ignored.
| S-EPMC8384200 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) threatens animal health and leads to considerable economic losses worldwide. Progress towards minimizing both veterinary and financial impact of the disease will be made with targeted disease control policies. To move towards targeted control, specific targets and detailed control strategies must be defined. One approach for identifying targets is to use mathematical and simulation models quantified with accurate and fine-scale data to design and evaluate alternative control policies. Nevertheless, published models of FMDV vary in modelling techniques and resolution of data incorporated. In order to determine which models and data sources contain enough detail to represent realistic control policy alternatives, we performed a systematic literature review of all FMDV dynamical models that use host data, disease data or both data types. For the purpose of evaluating modelling methodology, we classified models by control strategy represented, resolution of models and data, and location modelled. We found that modelling methodology has been well developed to the point where multiple methods are available to represent detailed and contact-specific transmission and targeted control. However, detailed host and disease data needed to quantify these models are only available from a few outbreaks. To address existing challenges in data collection, novel data sources should be considered and integrated into models of FMDV transmission and control. We suggest modelling multiple endemic areas to advance local control and global control and better understand FMDV transmission dynamics. With incorporation of additional data, models can assist with both the design of targeted control and identification of transmission drivers across geographic boundaries.
| S-EPMC5205574 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In the event of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) incursion, response strategies are required to control, contain, and eradicate the pathogen as efficiently as possible. Infectious disease simulation models are widely used tools that mimic disease dispersion in a population and that can be useful in the design and support of prevention and mitigation activities. However, there are often gaps in evidence-based research to supply models with quantities that are necessary to accurately reflect the system of interest. The objective of this study was to quantify values associated with the duration of the stages of FMD infection (latent period, subclinical period, incubation period, and duration of infection), probability of transmission (within-herd and between-herd via spatial spread), and diagnosis of a vesicular disease within a herd using a meta-analysis of the peer-reviewed literature and expert opinion. The latent period ranged from 1 to 7 days and incubation period ranged from 1 to 9 days; both were influenced by strain. In contrast, the subclinical period ranged from 0 to 6 days and was influenced by sampling method only. The duration of infection ranged from 1 to 10 days. The probability of spatial spread between an infected and fully susceptible swine farm was estimated as greatest within 5 km of the infected farm, highlighting the importance of possible long-range transmission through the movement of infected animals. Finally, while most swine practitioners are confident in their ability to detect a vesicular disease in an average sized swine herd, a small proportion expect that up to half of the herd would need to show clinical signs before detection via passive surveillance would occur. The results of this study will be useful in within- and between-herd simulation models to develop efficient response strategies in the event an FMD in swine populations of disease-free countries or regions.
| S-EPMC4887472 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Outbreaks of hand, foot and mouth disease have been documented in Japan since 1963. This disease is primarily caused by the two closely related serotypes of Enterovirus A71 (EV-A71) and Coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16). Here, we analyse Japanese virologic and syndromic surveillance time-series data from 1982 to 2015. As in some other countries in the Asia Pacific region, EV-A71 in Japan has a 3 year cyclical component, whereas CV-A16 is predominantly annual. We observe empirical signatures of an inhibitory interaction between the serotypes; virologic lines of evidence suggest they may indeed interact immunologically. We fit the time series to mechanistic epidemiological models: as a first-order effect, we find the data consistent with single-serotype susceptible-infected-recovered dynamics. We then extend the modelling to incorporate an inhibitory interaction between serotypes. Our results suggest the existence of a transient cross-protection and possible asymmetry in its strength such that CV-A16 serves as a stronger forcing on EV-A71. Allowing for asymmetry yields accurate out-of-sample predictions and the directionality of this effect is consistent with the virologic literature. Confirmation of these hypothesized interactions would have important implications for understanding enterovirus epidemiology and informing vaccine development. Our results highlight the general implication that even subtle interactions could have qualitative impacts on epidemic dynamics and predictability.
| S-EPMC6170776 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The structure of contact networks affects the likelihood of disease spread at the population scale and the risk of infection at any given node. Though this has been well characterized for both theoretical and empirical networks for the spread of epidemics on completely susceptible networks, the long-term impact of network structure on risk of infection with an endemic pathogen, where nodes can be infected more than once, has been less well characterized. Here, we analyze detailed records of the transportation of cattle among farms in Turkey to characterize the global and local attributes of the directed-weighted shipments network between 2007-2012. We then study the correlations between network properties and the likelihood of infection with, or exposure to, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) over the same time period using recorded outbreaks. The shipments network shows a complex combination of features (local and global) that have not been previously reported in other networks of shipments; i.e. small-worldness, scale-freeness, modular structure, among others. We find that nodes that were either infected or at high risk of infection with FMD (within one link from an infected farm) had disproportionately higher degree, were more central (eigenvector centrality and coreness), and were more likely to be net recipients of shipments compared to those that were always more than 2 links away from an infected farm. High in-degree (i.e. many shipments received) was the best univariate predictor of infection. Low in-coreness (i.e. peripheral nodes) was the best univariate predictor of nodes always more than 2 links away from an infected farm. These results are robust across the three different serotypes of FMD observed in Turkey and during periods of low-endemic prevalence and high-prevalence outbreaks.
| S-EPMC9432692 | biostudies-literature