Dataset Information

Climate-driven range expansion of a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters.

ABSTRACT: Global climate change is driving rapid distribution shifts in marine ecosystems; these are well established for lower trophic levels, but are harder to quantify for migratory top predators. By analysing a 25-year sightings-based dataset, we found evidence for rapid northwards range expansion of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus in northeast Atlantic waters. A 0.6 degrees C sea surface temperature increase in the mid-1990s is interpreted as an underlying controlling factor, while simultaneous northward shifts of plankton and prey fish species suggests a strong bottom-up control. Our results have important conservation implications and provide new evidence for climate-driven regime shift in Atlantic ecosystems.

SUBMITTER: Wynn RB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2391175 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Climate-driven range expansion of a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters.

Wynn Russell B RB Josey Simon A SA Martin Adrian P AP Johns David G DG Yésou Pierre P

Biology letters 20071001 5

Global climate change is driving rapid distribution shifts in marine ecosystems; these are well established for lower trophic levels, but are harder to quantify for migratory top predators. By analysing a 25-year sightings-based dataset, we found evidence for rapid northwards range expansion of the critically endangered Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus in northeast Atlantic waters. A 0.6 degrees C sea surface temperature increase in the mid-1990s is interpreted as an underlying controll ...[more]

PMID: 17650478

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Project description:AimEurope's only globally critically endangered seabird, the Balearic shearwater (Puffinus mauretanicus), is thought to have expanded its postbreeding range northwards into UK waters, though its at sea distribution there is not yet well understood. This study aims to identify environmental factors associated with the species' presence, map the probability of presence of the species across the western English Channel and southern Celtic Sea, and estimate the number of individuals in this area.LocationThe western English Channel and southern Celtic Sea.MethodsThis study analyses strip transect data collected between 2013 and 2017 from vessel-based surveys in the western English Channel and southern Celtic Sea during the Balearic shearwater's postbreeding period. Using environmental data collected directly and from remote sensors both Generalized Additive Models and the Random Forest machine learning model were used to determine shearwater presence at different locations. Abundance was estimated separately using a density multiplication approach.ResultsBoth models indicated that oceanographic features were better predictors of shearwater presence than fish abundance. Seafloor aspect, sea surface temperature, depth, salinity, and maximum current speed were the most important predictors. The estimated number of Balearic shearwaters in the prediction area ranged from 652 birds in 2017 to 6,904 birds in 2014.Main conclusionsAreas with consistently high probabilities of shearwater presence were identified at the Celtic Sea front. Our estimates suggest that the study area in southwest Britain supports between 2% and 23% of the global population of Balearic shearwaters. Based on the timing of the surveys (mainly in October), it is probable that most of the sighted shearwaters were immatures. This study provides the most complete understanding of Balearic shearwater distribution in UK waters available to date, information that will help inform any future conservation actions concerning this endangered species.

Dataset Information

Climate-driven range expansion of a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters.

Publications

Climate-driven range expansion of a critically endangered top predator in northeast Atlantic waters.

Similar Datasets

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