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Modelling the epidemiological impact of intermittent preventive treatment against malaria in infants.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Trials of intermittent preventive treatment against malaria in infants (IPTi) using sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) have shown a positive, albeit variable, protective efficacy against clinical malaria episodes. The impact of IPTi in different epidemiological settings and over time is unknown and predictions are hampered by the lack of knowledge about how IPTi works. We investigated mechanisms proposed for the action of IPTi and made predictions of the likely impact on morbidity and mortality. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We used a comprehensive, individual-based, stochastic model of malaria epidemiology to simulate recently published trials of IPTi using SP with site-specific characteristics as inputs. This baseline model was then modified to represent hypotheses concerning the duration of action of SP, the temporal pattern of fevers caused by individual infections, potential benefits of avoiding fevers on immunity and the effect of sub-therapeutic levels of SP on parasite dynamics. The baseline model reproduced the pattern of results reasonably well. None of the models based on alternative hypotheses improved the fit between the model predictions and observed data. Predictions suggest that IPTi would have a beneficial effect across a range of transmission intensities. IPTi was predicted to avert a greater number of episodes where IPTi coverage was higher, the health system treatment coverage lower, and for drugs which were more efficacious and had longer prophylactic periods. The predicted cumulative benefits were proportionately slightly greater for severe malaria episodes and malaria-attributable mortality than for acute episodes in the settings modelled. Modest increased susceptibility was predicted between doses and following the last dose, but these were outweighed by the cumulative benefits. The impact on transmission intensity was negligible. CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of trial results can be accounted for by differences between the trial sites together with known features of malaria epidemiology and the action of SP. Predictions suggest that IPTi would have a beneficial impact across a variety of epidemiological settings.

SUBMITTER: Ross A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2441827 | biostudies-literature | 2008

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling the epidemiological impact of intermittent preventive treatment against malaria in infants.

Ross Amanda A Penny Melissa M Maire Nicolas N Studer Alain A Carneiro Ilona I Schellenberg David D Greenwood Brian B Tanner Marcel M Smith Thomas T

PloS one 20080716 7

<h4>Background</h4>Trials of intermittent preventive treatment against malaria in infants (IPTi) using sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) have shown a positive, albeit variable, protective efficacy against clinical malaria episodes. The impact of IPTi in different epidemiological settings and over time is unknown and predictions are hampered by the lack of knowledge about how IPTi works. We investigated mechanisms proposed for the action of IPTi and made predictions of the likely impact on morbidit ...[more]

PMID: 18628828

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Project description:Intermittent preventive antimalarial treatment in infants (IPTi) is currently evaluated as a malaria control strategy. Among the factors influencing the extent of protection that is provided by IPTi are the transmission intensity, seasonality, drug resistance patterns, and the schedule of IPTi administrations. The aim of this study was to determine how far the protective efficacy of IPTi depends on spatio-temporal variations of the prevailing incidence of malaria.One thousand seventy infants were enrolled in a registered controlled trial on the efficacy of IPTi with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) in the Ashanti Region, Ghana, West Africa (ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT00206739). Stratification for the village of residence and the month of birth of study participants demonstrated that the malaria incidence was dependent on spatial (range of incidence rates in different villages 0.6-2.0 episodes/year) and temporal (range of incidence rates in children of different birth months 0.8-1.2 episodes/year) factors. The range of spatio-temporal variation allowed ecological analyses of the correlation between malaria incidence rates, anti-Plasmodium falciparum lysate IgG antibody levels and protective efficacies provided by IPTi.Protective efficacy of the first SP administration was positively correlated with malaria incidences in children living in a distinct village or born in a distinct month (R2 0.48, p < 0.04 and R2 0.63, p < 0.003, respectively). Corresponding trends were seen after the second and third study drug administration. Accordingly, IgG levels against parasite lysate increased with malaria incidence. This correlation was stronger in children who received IPTi, indicating an effect modification of the intervention.The spatial and temporal variations of malaria incidences in a geographically and meteorologically homogeneous study area exemplify the need for close monitoring of local incidence rates in all types of intervention studies. The increase of the protective efficacy of IPTi with malaria incidences may be relevant for IPTi implementation strategies and, possibly, for other malaria control measures.

Project description:BackgroundIntermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is recommended by WHO where malaria incidence in infancy is high and SP resistance is low. The current delivery strategy is via routine Expanded Program on Immunisation contacts during infancy (EPI-IPTi). However, improvements to this approach may be possible where malaria transmission is seasonal, or where the malaria burden lies mainly outside infancy.Methods and findingsA mathematical model was developed to estimate the protective efficacy (PE) of IPT against clinical malaria in children aged 2-24 months, using entomological and epidemiological data from an EPI-IPTi trial in Navrongo, Ghana to parameterise the model. The protection achieved by seasonally-targeted IPT in infants (sIPTi), seasonal IPT in children (sIPTc), and by case-management with long-acting artemisinin combination therapies (LA-ACTs) was predicted for Navrongo and for sites with different transmission intensity and seasonality. In Navrongo, the predicted PE of sIPTi was 26% by 24 months of age, compared to 16% with EPI-IPTi. sIPTc given to all children under 2 years would provide PE of 52% by 24 months of age. Seasonally-targeted IPT retained its advantages in a range of transmission patterns. Under certain circumstances, LA-ACTs for case-management may provide similar protection to EPI-IPTi. However, EPI-IPTi or sIPT combined with LA-ACTs would be substantially more protective than either strategy used alone.ConclusionDelivery of IPT to infants via the EPI is sub-optimal because individuals are not protected by IPT at the time of highest malaria risk, and because older children are not protected. Alternative delivery strategies to the EPI are needed where transmission varies seasonally or the malaria burden extends beyond infancy. Long-acting ACTs may also make important reductions in malaria incidence. However, delivery systems must be developed to ensure that both forms of chemoprevention reach the individuals who are most exposed to malaria.

Project description:BackgroundIntermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) is a new malaria control tool. However, it is uncertain whether IPTi works mainly through chemoprophylaxis or treatment of existing infections. Understanding the mechanism is essential for development of replacements for sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) where it is no longer effective. This study investigated how protection against malaria given by SP, chlorproguanil-dapsone (CD) and mefloquine (MQ), varied with time since administration of IPTi.Methods and findingsA secondary analysis of data from a randomised, placebo-controlled trial in an area of high antifolate resistance in Tanzania was conducted. IPTi using SP, CD, MQ or placebo was given to 1280 infants at 2, 3 and 9 months of age. Poisson regression with random effects to adjust for potential clustering of malaria episodes within children was used to calculate incidence rate ratios for clinical malaria in defined time strata following IPTi. The short-acting antimalarial CD gave no protection against clinical malaria, whereas long-acting MQ gave two months of substantial protection (protective efficacy (PE) 73.1% (95% CI: 23.9, 90.5) and 73.3% (95% CI: 0, 92.9) in the first and second month respectively). SP gave some protection in the first month after treatment (PE 64.5% (95% CI: 10.6, 85.9)) although it did not reduce the incidence of malaria up to 12 months of age. There was no evidence of either long-term protection or increased risk of malaria for any of the regimens.ConclusionPost-treatment chemoprophylaxis appears to be the main mechanism by which IPTi protects children against malaria. Long-acting antimalarials are therefore likely to be the most effective drugs for IPTi, but as monotherapies could be vulnerable to development of drug resistance. Due to concerns about tolerability, the mefloquine formulation used in this study is not suitable for IPTi. Further investigation of combinations of long-acting antimalarials for IPTi is needed.Trial registrationClinicaltrials.gov NCT00158574.

Project description:Malaria during pregnancy results in adverse outcomes for mothers and infants. Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) is the primary intervention aimed at reducing malaria infection during pregnancy. Although submicroscopic infection is common during pregnancy and at delivery, its impact throughout pregnancy on the development of placental malaria and adverse pregnancy outcomes has not been clearly established.Quantitative PCR was used to detect submicroscopic infections in pregnant women enrolled in an observational study in Blantyre, Malawi to determine their effect on maternal, foetal and placental outcomes. The ability of SP to treat and prevent submicroscopic infections was also assessed.2,681 samples from 448 women were analysed and 95 submicroscopic infections were detected in 68 women, a rate of 0.6 episodes per person-year of follow-up. Submicroscopic infections were most often detected at enrolment. The majority of women with submicroscopic infections did not have a microscopically detectable infection detected during pregnancy. Submicroscopic infection was associated with placental malaria even after controlling for microscopically detectable infection and was associated with decreased maternal haemoglobin at the time of detection. However, submicroscopic infection was not associated with adverse maternal or foetal outcomes at delivery. One-third of women with evidence of placental malaria did not have documented peripheral infection during pregnancy. SP was moderately effective in treating submicroscopic infections, but did not prevent the development of new submicroscopic infections in the month after administration.Submicroscopic malaria infection is common and occurs early in pregnancy. SP-IPT can clear some submicroscopic infections but does not prevent new infections after administration. To effectively control pregnancy-associated malaria, new interventions are required to target women prior to their first antenatal care visit and to effectively treat and prevent all malaria infections.

Project description:Intermittent Preventive Treatment for malaria control in infants (IPTi) consists of the administration of a treatment dose of an anti-malarial drug, usually sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine, at scheduled intervals, regardless of the presence of Plasmodium falciparum infection. A pooled analysis of individually randomized trials reported that IPTi reduced clinical episodes by 30%. This study evaluated the effect of IPTi on child survival in the context of a five-district implementation project in southern Tanzania. [clinicaltrials.gov NCT00152204].After baseline household and health facility surveys in 2004, five districts comprising 24 divisions were randomly assigned either to receive IPTi (n = 12) or not (n = 12). Implementation started in March 2005, led by routine health services with support from the research team. In 2007, a large household survey was undertaken to assess the impact of IPTi on survival in infants aged two-11 months through birth history interviews with all women aged 13-49 years. The analysis is based on an "intention-to-treat" ecological design, with survival outcomes analysed according to the cluster in which the mothers lived.Survival in infants aged two-11 months was comparable in IPTi and comparison areas at baseline. In intervention areas in 2007, 48% of children aged 12-23 months had documented evidence of receiving three doses of IPTi, compared to 2% in comparison areas (P < 0.0001). Over the three years of the study there was a marked improvement in survival in both groups. Between 2001-4 and 2005-7, mortality rates in two-11 month olds fell from 34.1 to 23.6 per 1,000 person-years in intervention areas and from 32.3 to 20.7 in comparison areas. In 2007, divisions implementing IPTi had a 14% (95% CI -12%, 49%) higher mortality rate in two-11 month olds in comparison with non-implementing divisions (P = 0.31).The lack of evidence of an effect of IPTi on survival could be a false negative result due to a lack of power or imbalance of unmeasured confounders. Alternatively, there could be no mortality impact of IPTi due to low coverage, late administration, drug resistance, decreased malaria transmission or improvements in vector control and case management. This study raises important questions for programme evaluation design.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) has been shown to decrease clinical malaria by approximately 30% in the first year of life and is a promising malaria control strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa which can be delivered alongside the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI). To date, there have been limited data on the cost-effectiveness of this strategy using sulfadoxine pyrimethamine (SP) and no published data on cost-effectiveness using other antimalarials. METHODS: We analysed data from 5 countries in sub-Saharan Africa using a total of 5 different IPTi drug regimens; SP, mefloquine (MQ), 3 days of chlorproguanil-dapsone (CD), SP plus 3 days of artesunate (SP-AS3) and 3 days of amodiaquine-artesunate (AQ3-AS3).The cost per malaria episode averted and cost per Disability-Adjusted Life-Year (DALY) averted were modeled using both trial specific protective efficacy (PE) for all IPTi drugs and a pooled PE for IPTi with SP, malaria incidence, an estimated malaria case fatality rate of 1.57%, IPTi delivery costs and country specific provider and household malaria treatment costs. FINDINGS: In sites where IPTi had a significant effect on reducing malaria, the cost per episode averted for IPTi-SP was very low, USD 1.36-4.03 based on trial specific data and USD 0.68-2.27 based on the pooled analysis. For IPTi using alternative antimalarials, the lowest cost per case averted was for AQ3-AS3 in western Kenya (USD 4.62) and the highest was for MQ in Korowge, Tanzania (USD 18.56). Where efficacious, based only on intervention costs, IPTi was shown to be cost effective in all the sites and highly cost-effective in all but one of the sites, ranging from USD 2.90 (Ifakara, Tanzania with SP) to USD 39.63 (Korogwe, Tanzania with MQ) per DALY averted. In addition, IPTi reduced health system costs and showed significant savings to households from malaria cases averted. A threshold analysis showed that there is room for the IPTi-efficacy to fall and still remain highly cost effective in all sites where IPTi had a statistically significant effect on clinical malaria. CONCLUSIONS: IPTi delivered alongside the EPI is a highly cost effective intervention against clinical malaria with a range of drugs in a range of malaria transmission settings. Where IPTi did not have a statistically significant impact on malaria, generally in low transmission sites, it was not cost effective.

Project description:BackgroundTreatment of asymptomatic individuals, regardless of their malaria infection status, with regularly spaced therapeutic doses of antimalarial drugs has been proposed as a method for reducing malaria morbidity and mortality. This strategy, called intermittent preventive treatment (IPT), is currently employed for pregnant women and is being studied for infants (IPTi) as well. As with any drug-based intervention strategy, it is important to understand how implementation may affect the spread of drug-resistant parasites. This is a difficult issue to address experimentally because of the limited size and duration of IPTi trials as well as the intractability of distinguishing the spread of resistance due to conventional treatment of malaria episodes versus that due to IPTi when the same drug is used in both contexts.Methods and findingsUsing a mathematical model, we evaluated the possible impact of treating individuals with antimalarial drugs at regular intervals regardless of their infection status. We translated individual treatment strategies and drug pharmacokinetics into parasite population dynamic effects and show that immunity, treatment rate, drug decay kinetics, and presumptive treatment rate are important factors in the spread of drug-resistant parasites. Our model predicts that partially resistant parasites are more likely to spread in low-transmission areas, but fully resistant parasites are more likely to spread under conditions of high transmission, which is consistent with some epidemiological observations. We were also able to distinguish between spread of resistance due to treatment of symptomatic infections and that due to IPTi. We showed that IPTi could accelerate the spread of resistant parasites, but this effect was only likely to be significant in areas of low or unstable transmission.ConclusionsThe results presented here demonstrate the importance of considering both the half-life of a drug and the existing level of resistance when choosing a drug for IPTi. Drugs to which little or no resistance exists are not advisable for IPT in high-transmission areas, but IPTi is not likely to significantly impact the spread of highly resistant parasites in areas where partial resistance is already established. IPTi is more likely to accelerate the spread of resistance in high-transmission areas than is IPT in adults (i.e., pregnant women).

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Modelling the epidemiological impact of intermittent preventive treatment against malaria in infants.

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Modelling the epidemiological impact of intermittent preventive treatment against malaria in infants.

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