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What should vaccine developers ask? Simulation of the effectiveness of malaria vaccines.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: A number of different malaria vaccine candidates are currently in pre-clinical or clinical development. Even though they vary greatly in their characteristics, it is unlikely that any of them will provide long-lasting sterilizing immunity against the malaria parasite. There is great uncertainty about what the minimal vaccine profile should be before registration is worthwhile; how to allocate resources between different candidates with different profiles; which candidates to consider combining; and what deployment strategies to consider. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We use previously published stochastic simulation models, calibrated against extensive epidemiological data, to make quantitative predictions of the population effects of malaria vaccines on malaria transmission, morbidity and mortality. The models are fitted and simulations obtained via volunteer computing. We consider a range of endemic malaria settings with deployment of vaccines via the Expanded program on immunization (EPI), with and without additional booster doses, and also via 5-yearly mass campaigns for a range of coverages. The simulation scenarios account for the dynamic effects of natural and vaccine induced immunity, for treatment of clinical episodes, and for births, ageing and deaths in the cohort. Simulated pre-erythrocytic vaccines have greatest benefits in low endemic settings (EIR of 84) PEV may lead to increased incidence of severe disease in the long term, if efficacy is moderate to low (<70%). Blood stage vaccines (BSV) are most useful in high transmission settings, and are comparable to PEV for low transmission settings. Combinations of PEV and BSV generally perform little better than the best of the contributing components. A minimum half-life of protection of 2-3 years appears to be a precondition for substantial epidemiological effects. Herd immunity effects can be achieved with even moderately effective (>20%) malaria vaccines (either PEV or BSV) when deployed through mass campaigns targeting all age-groups as well as EPI, and especially if combined with highly efficacious transmission-blocking components. CONCLUSIONS: We present for the first time a stochastic simulation approach to compare likely effects on morbidity, mortality and transmission of a range of malaria vaccines and vaccine combinations in realistic epidemiological and health systems settings. The results raise several issues for vaccine clinical development, in particular appropriateness of vaccine types for different transmission settings; the need to assess transmission to the vector and duration of protection; and the importance of deployment additional to the EPI, which again may make the issue of number of doses required more critical. To test the validity and robustness of our conclusions there is a need for further modeling (and, of course, field research) using alternative formulations for both natural and vaccine induced immunity. Evaluation of alternative deployment strategies outside EPI needs to consider the operational implications of different approaches to mass vaccination.

SUBMITTER: Penny MA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2527129 | biostudies-literature | 2008

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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What should vaccine developers ask? Simulation of the effectiveness of malaria vaccines.

Penny Melissa A MA Maire Nicolas N Studer Alain A Schapira Allan A Smith Thomas A TA

PloS one 20080911 9

<h4>Background</h4>A number of different malaria vaccine candidates are currently in pre-clinical or clinical development. Even though they vary greatly in their characteristics, it is unlikely that any of them will provide long-lasting sterilizing immunity against the malaria parasite. There is great uncertainty about what the minimal vaccine profile should be before registration is worthwhile; how to allocate resources between different candidates with different profiles; which candidates to c ...[more]

PMID: 18784833

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Project description:BackgroundA wide range of possible malaria vaccines is being considered and there is a need to identify which vaccines should be prioritized for clinical development. An important element of the information needed for this prioritization is a prediction of the cost-effectiveness of potential vaccines in the transmission settings in which they are likely to be deployed. This analysis needs to consider a range of delivery modalities to ensure that clinical development plans can be aligned with the most appropriate deployment strategies.MethodsThe simulations are based on a previously published individual-based stochastic model for the natural history and epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Three different vaccine types: pre-erythrocytic vaccines (PEV), blood stage vaccines (BSV), mosquito-stage transmission-blocking vaccines (MSTBV), and combinations of these, are considered each delivered via a range of delivery modalities (Expanded Programme of Immunization - EPI-, EPI with booster, and mass vaccination combined with EPI). The cost-effectiveness ratios presented are calculated for four health outcomes, for assumed vaccine prices of US$ 2 or US$ 10 per dose, projected over a 10-year period.ResultsThe simulations suggest that PEV will be more cost-effective in low transmission settings, while BSV at higher transmission settings. Combinations of BSV and PEV are more efficient than PEV, especially in moderate to high transmission settings, while compared to BSV they are more cost-effective in moderate to low transmission settings. Combinations of MSTBV and PEV or PEV and BSV improve the effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness compared to PEV and BSV alone only when applied with EPI and mass vaccinations. Adding booster doses to the EPI is unlikely to be a cost-effective alternative to delivering vaccines via the EPI for any vaccine, while mass vaccination improves effectiveness, especially in low transmission settings, and is often a more efficient alternative to the EPI. However, the costs of increasing the coverage of mass vaccination over 50% often exceed the benefits.ConclusionThe simulations indicate malaria vaccines might be efficient malaria control interventions, and that both transmission setting and vaccine delivery modality are important to their cost-effectiveness. Alternative vaccine delivery modalities to the EPI may be more efficient than the EPI. Mass vaccination is predicted to provide substantial health benefits at low additional costs, although achieving high coverage rates can lead to substantial incremental costs.

Project description:BackgroundEfforts to develop malaria vaccines show promise. Mathematical model-based estimates of the potential demand, public health impact, and cost and financing requirements can be used to inform investment and adoption decisions by vaccine developers and policymakers on the use of malaria vaccines as complements to existing interventions. However, the complexity of such models may make their outputs inaccessible to non-modeling specialists. This paper describes a Malaria Vaccine Model (MVM) developed to address the specific needs of developers and policymakers, who need to access sophisticated modeling results and to test various scenarios in a user-friendly interface. The model's functionality is demonstrated through a hypothetical vaccine.MethodsThe MVM has three modules: supply and demand forecast; public health impact; and implementation cost and financing requirements. These modules include pre-entered reference data and also allow for user-defined inputs. The model includes an integrated sensitivity analysis function. Model functionality was demonstrated by estimating the public health impact of a hypothetical pre-erythrocytic malaria vaccine with 85% efficacy against uncomplicated disease and a vaccine efficacy decay rate of four years, based on internationally-established targets. Demand for this hypothetical vaccine was estimated based on historical vaccine implementation rates for routine infant immunization in 40 African countries over a 10-year period. Assumed purchase price was $5 per dose and injection equipment and delivery costs were $0.40 per dose.ResultsThe model projects the number of doses needed, uncomplicated and severe cases averted, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted, and cost to avert each. In the demonstration scenario, based on a projected demand of 532 million doses, the MVM estimated that 150 million uncomplicated cases of malaria and 1.1 million deaths would be averted over 10 years. This is equivalent to 943 uncomplicated cases and 7 deaths averted per 1,000 vaccinees. In discounted 2011 US dollars, this represents $11 per uncomplicated case averted and $1,482 per death averted. If vaccine efficacy were reduced to 75%, the estimated uncomplicated cases and deaths averted over 10 years would decrease by 14% and 19%, respectively.ConclusionsThe MVM can provide valuable information to assist decision-making by vaccine developers and policymakers, information which will be refined and strengthened as field studies progress allowing further validation of modeling assumptions.

Project description:The impact of influenza vaccination is largely measured by estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE), which vary in different seasons. Strain mutations and waning immunity present two key mechanisms affecting VE. We sought to quantify the relative effect of these mechanisms by projecting VE and the reduction of illness due to vaccination. We developed a stochastic age-structured agent-based simulation model of influenza transmission dynamics to encapsulate intraseason waning of immunity post-vaccination, and mutation-induced antigenic distance between circulating strains and vaccine strains. Parameterizing the model with published estimates, we projected the temporal and overall VE during an epidemic season, and estimated the reduction of infection for high (70%) and low (30%) vaccine efficacies to reflect the levels of vaccine-induced protection in randomized control trials. Both temporal and overall VE decreased as the attack rate increased, with lower median values for epidemics starting with strains that were antigenically more distant from vaccine strains. We observed a higher rate of temporal decline with considerably lower median values of the overall VE in the presence of intraseason waning of immunity compared with only the antigenic distance effect. The highest benefit of vaccination in preventing influenza infection was achieved at moderate attack rates in the range of 6%-15%. The results show that even when VE is relatively low in the population and almost negligible for older age groups (i.e., 50+ years), vaccination can still prevent significant illness in high-risk individuals; thereby reducing healthcare resource utilization and economic burden. Our study indicates that early vaccination remains an important strategy for alleviating the burden of seasonal influenza. Policy discussions on optimal timing of vaccination to reduce the effect of intraseason waning of immunity should be considered in the context of strain mutations within the epidemic course.

Project description:In 2013 there were an estimated 584,000 deaths and 198 million clinical illnesses due to malaria, the majority in sub-Saharan Africa. Vaccines would be the ideal addition to the existing armamentarium of anti-malaria tools. However, malaria is caused by parasites, and parasites are much more complex in terms of their biology than the viruses and bacteria for which we have vaccines, passing through multiple stages of development in the human host, each stage expressing hundreds of unique antigens. This complexity makes it more difficult to develop a vaccine for parasites than for viruses and bacteria, since an immune response targeting one stage may not offer protection against a later stage, because different antigens are the targets of protective immunity at different stages. Furthermore, depending on the life cycle stage and whether the parasite is extra- or intra-cellular, antibody and/or cellular immune responses provide protection. It is thus not surprising that there is no vaccine on the market for prevention of malaria, or any human parasitic infection. In fact, no vaccine for any disease with this breadth of targets and immune responses exists. In this limited review, we focus on four approaches to malaria vaccines, (1) a recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccine aimed at Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) pre-erythrocytic stages of the parasite cycle (RTS,S/AS01), (2) whole sporozoite vaccines aimed at Pf pre-erythrocytic stages (PfSPZ Vaccine and PfSPZ-CVac), (3) prime boost vaccines that include recombinant DNA, viruses and bacteria, and protein with adjuvant aimed primarily at Pf pre-erythrocytic, but also asexual erythrocytic stages, and (4) recombinant protein with adjuvant vaccines aimed at Pf and Plasmodium vivax sexual erythrocytic and mosquito stages. We recognize that we are not covering all approaches to malaria vaccine development, or most of the critically important work on development of vaccines against P. vivax, the second most important cause of malaria. Progress during the last few years has been significant, and a first generation malaria candidate vaccine, RTS,S/AS01, is under review by the European Medicines Agency (EMA) for its quality, safety and efficacy under article 58, which allows the EMA to give a scientific opinion about products intended exclusively for markets outside of the European Union. However, much work is in progress to optimize malaria vaccines in regard to magnitude and durability of protective efficacy and the financing and practicality of delivery. Thus, we are hopeful that anti-malaria vaccines will soon be important tools in the battle against malaria.

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What should vaccine developers ask? Simulation of the effectiveness of malaria vaccines.

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What should vaccine developers ask? Simulation of the effectiveness of malaria vaccines.

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