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Comfort in big numbers: Does over-estimation of doping prevalence in others indicate self-involvement?

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:The 'False Consensus Effect' (FCE), by which people perceive their own actions as relatively common behaviour, might be exploited to gauge whether a person engages in controversial behaviour, such as performance enhancing drug (PED) use. HYPOTHESIS:It is assumed that people's own behaviour, owing to the FCE, affects their estimation of the prevalence of that behaviour. It is further hypothesised that a person's estimate of PED population use is a reliable indicator of the doping behaviour of that person, in lieu of self-reports. TESTING THE HYPOTHESIS:Over- or underestimation is calculated from investigating known groups (i.e. users vs. non-users), using a short questionnaire, and a known prevalence rate from official reports or sample evidence. It is proposed that sample evidence from self-reported behaviour should be verified using objective biochemical analyses.In order to find proofs of concept for the existence of false consensus, a pilot study was conducted. Data were collected among competitive UK student-athletes (n = 124) using a web-based anonymous questionnaire. User (n = 9) vs. non-user (n = 76) groups were established using self-reported information on doping use and intention to use PEDs in hypothetical situations. Observed differences in the mean estimation of doping made by the user group exceeded the estimation made by the non-user group (35.11% vs. 15.34% for general doping and 34.25% vs. 26.30% in hypothetical situations, respectively), thus providing preliminary evidence in support of the FCE concept in relation to doping. IMPLICATIONS OF THE HYPOTHESIS:The presence of the FCE in estimating doping prevalence or behaviour in others suggests that the FCE based approach may be an avenue for developing an indirect self-report mechanism for PED use behaviour. The method may be successfully adapted to the estimation of prevalence of behaviours where direct self-reports are assumed to be distorted by socially desirable responding. Thus this method can enhance available information on socially undesirable, health compromising behaviour (i.e. PED use) for policy makers and healthcare professionals. The importance of the method lies in its usefulness in epidemiological studies, not in individual assessments.

SUBMITTER: Petroczi A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2553062 | biostudies-literature | 2008 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Comfort in big numbers: Does over-estimation of doping prevalence in others indicate self-involvement?

Petróczi Andrea A Mazanov Jason J Nepusz Tamás T Backhouse Susan H SH Naughton Declan P DP

Journal of occupational medicine and toxicology (London, England) 20080905

<h4>Background</h4>The 'False Consensus Effect' (FCE), by which people perceive their own actions as relatively common behaviour, might be exploited to gauge whether a person engages in controversial behaviour, such as performance enhancing drug (PED) use.<h4>Hypothesis</h4>It is assumed that people's own behaviour, owing to the FCE, affects their estimation of the prevalence of that behaviour. It is further hypothesised that a person's estimate of PED population use is a reliable indicator of t ...[more]

PMID: 18775068

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Project description:BACKGROUND/AIMS:In the coming two decades significant increases in the burden of blindness are anticipated unless concerted efforts are made to improve eye care in developing countries. Evidence of changing prevalence rates or numbers of blind people are few. The change in blindness prevalence and the number of blind people in an adult population of Malawi was measured over a 16 year period. METHODS:In 1999 a population based survey of blindness in adults (age 50+) was conducted in Chikwawa district of Malawi. Visual acuity and cause of vision loss were recorded for each eye independently. Blindness was defined as presenting better eye vision of <6/60. Findings from a 1983 survey of blindness in the same district (using similar methods) were re-analysed to be comparable with the survey conducted in 1999. RESULTS:Among 1630 enumerated adults 89% were examined. The age adjusted prevalence of blindness in the adult population was 5.4% and more common in women than men. In each age group the prevalence of blindness was lower in 1999 than in 1983; the overall reduction in blindness was 31%. During this period the 50+ population in Malawi increased almost twofold. Extrapolating the Chikwawa district data to the Malawi population reveals that the number of blind people has increased by 24%; the increase is primarily because of the large increase in the size of the most elderly group, aged 70 and above. CONCLUSION:The majority of blind people in Chikwawa (1983 and 1999) are in the age group 70 and over. This group has had the largest proportional increase in population size in this time. Services in this population have improved in the intervening 16 years and yet there was still an increase in the number of blind people. There was little change in excess blindness in women, suggesting that the same barriers that prevented utilisation of services in 1983 probably persist in 1999. Efforts to reach the most elderly and to reach women are needed to lead to a reduction in blind people in settings such as rural Malawi.

Project description:Numerical categories such as parity, i.e., being odd or even, have frequently been shown to influence how particular numbers are processed. Mathematically, number parity is defined categorically. So far, cognitive, and psychological accounts have followed the mathematical definition and defined parity as a categorical psychological representation as well. In this manuscript, we wish to test the alternative account that cognitively, parity is represented in a more gradual manner such that some numbers are represented as "more odd" or "more even" than other odd or even numbers, respectively. Specifically, parity processing might be influenced by more specific properties such as whether a number is a prime, a square number, a power of 2, part of a multiplication table, divisible by 4 or by 5, and many others. We suggest that these properties can influence the psychologically represented parity of a number, making it more or less prototypical for odd- or evenness. In the present study, we tested the influence of these numerical properties in a bimanual parity judgment task with auditorily presented two-digit numbers. Additionally, we further investigated the interaction of these numerical properties with linguistic factors in three language groups (English, German, and Polish). Results show significant effects on reaction times of the congruity of parity status between decade and unit digits, even if numerical magnitude and word frequency are controlled. We also observed other effects of the above specific numerical properties, such as multiplication attributes, which facilitated or interfered with the speed of parity judgment. Based on these effects of specific numerical properties we proposed and elaborated a parity continuum account. However, our cross-lingual study also suggests that parity representation and/or access seem to depend on the linguistic properties of the respective language or education and culture. Overall, the results suggest that the "perceived" parity is not the same as objective parity, and some numbers are more prototypical exemplars of their categories.

Project description:PurposeTwo months after its first COVID-19 case, Italy counted more than 190,000 confirmed positive cases. From the beginning of April 2020, the nationwide lockdown started to show early effects by reducing the total cumulative incidence reached by the epidemic wave. Here we provide the reproduction number estimation both in space and in time from February 24 to April 24, 2020 over 2 months into the epidemic.MethodsThe aim of the present work was to provide a systematical mapping of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics spread to all regions of Italy. To do so, we estimated the basic reproduction number (R 0 ), by using the maximum likelihood estimation method in the early stage of the epidemic. In addition, we determined time evolution of this parameter across the 2 months of the observational period. Finally, we linked R t , with two indices, the first representing the number of contagious people and the latter the density of susceptibiltiy to infection of people in a region as recorded on April 24, 2020.ResultsOur estimates suggest a basic reproduction number averaged over all the regions of 3.29. Based on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics reported here, we gave a quantitative evaluation of the efficiency of the government measures to lower the reproduction number below 1 (control regime). We estimated that the worst-hit regions in Italy reached the control regime level (R t < 1) in about a month.ConclusionOur work was carried out in the period between April and July,2020. We found that the mean value of time to reach the control regime across the whole country was about 31 days from February 24, 2020. Moreover, we highlighted the interplay between the reproduction number and two epidemiological/demographic indices to evaluate the "state of activity" of the epidemic, potentially helping in challenging decisions to continue, ease, or tighten restrictions.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10389-021-01567-1.

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Comfort in big numbers: Does over-estimation of doping prevalence in others indicate self-involvement?

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Comfort in big numbers: Does over-estimation of doping prevalence in others indicate self-involvement?

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