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Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expensive antimalarials, in particular from the Global Fund, at present the single largest source of ACT funding. METHODS: Predictive regression models estimating the timing and rate of disbursements from the Global Fund to recipient countries for each malaria grant were derived using a repeated split-sample procedure intended to avoid over-fitting. Predictions were compared against actual disbursements in a group of validation grants, and forecasts of ACT procurement extrapolated from disbursement predictions were evaluated against actual procurement in two sub-Saharan countries. RESULTS: Quarterly forecasts were correlated highly with actual smoothed disbursement rates (r = 0.987, p < 0.0001). Additionally, predicted ACT procurement, extrapolated from forecasted disbursements, was correlated strongly with actual ACT procurement supported by two grants from the Global Fund's first (r = 0.945, p < 0.0001) and fourth (r = 0.938, p < 0.0001) funding rounds. CONCLUSION: This analysis derived predictive regression models that successfully forecasted disbursement patterning for individual Global Fund malaria grants. These results indicate the utility of this approach for demand forecasting of ACT and, potentially, for other commodities procured using funding from the Global Fund. Further validation using data from other countries in different regions and environments will be necessary to confirm its generalizability.

SUBMITTER: Cohen JM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2570684 | biostudies-literature | 2008

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies.

Cohen Justin M JM Singh Inder I O'Brien Megan E ME

Malaria journal 20081002

<h4>Background</h4>An accurate forecast of global demand is essential to stabilize the market for artemisinin-based combination therapy (ACT) and to ensure access to high-quality, life-saving medications at the lowest sustainable prices by avoiding underproduction and excessive overproduction, each of which can have negative consequences for the availability of affordable drugs. A robust forecast requires an understanding of the resources available to support procurement of these relatively expe ...[more]

PMID: 18831742

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Project description:OBJECTIVES:To compare the efficacy and safety of artemisinin combination therapies for the treatment of uncomplicated falciparum malaria in Uganda. DESIGN:Randomized single-blind controlled trial. SETTING:Tororo, Uganda, an area of high-level malaria transmission. PARTICIPANTS:Children aged one to ten years with confirmed uncomplicated P. falciparum malaria. INTERVENTIONS:Amodiaquine + artesunate or artemether-lumefantrine. OUTCOME MEASURES:Risks of recurrent symptomatic malaria and recurrent parasitemia at 28 days, unadjusted and adjusted by genotyping to distinguish recrudescences and new infections. RESULTS:Of 408 participants enrolled, 403 with unadjusted efficacy outcomes were included in the per-protocol analysis. Both treatment regimens were highly efficacious; no recrudescences occurred in patients treated with amodiaquine + artesunate, and only two occurred in those treated with artemether-lumefantrine. However, recurrent malaria due to new infections was common. The unadjusted risk of recurrent symptomatic malaria was significantly lower for participants treated with artemether-lumefantrine than for those treated with amodiaquine + artesunate (27% versus 42%, risk difference 15%, 95% CI 5.9%-24.2%). Similar results were seen for the risk of recurrent parasitemia (51% artemether-lumefantrine versus 66% amodiaquine + artesunate, risk difference 16%, 95% CI 6.2%-25.2%). Amodiaquine + artesunate and artemether-lumefantrine were both well-tolerated. Serious adverse events were uncommon with both regimens. CONCLUSIONS:Amodiaquine + artesunate and artemether-lumefantrine were both highly efficacious for treatment of uncomplicated malaria. However, in this holoendemic area, despite the excellent performance of both regimens in terms of efficacy, many patients experienced recurrent parasitemia due to new infections. Artemether-lumefantrine was superior to amodiaquine + artesunate for prevention of new infections. To maximize the benefit of artemisinin combination therapy in Africa, treatment should be integrated with strategies to prevent malaria transmission. The impact of frequent repeated therapy on the efficacy, safety, and cost-effectiveness of new artemisinin regimens should be further investigated.

Project description:BackgroundArtemisinin combination therapies (ACTs) are used worldwide as first-line treatment against confirmed or suspected Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Despite the success of ACTs at reducing the global burden of malaria, emerging resistance to artemisinin threatens these gains. Countering onset of resistance might need deliberate tactics aimed at slowing the reduction in ACT effectiveness. We assessed optimum use of ACTs at the population level, specifically focusing on a strategy of multiple first-line therapies (MFT), and comparing it with strategies of cycling or sequential use of single first-line ACTs.MethodsWith an individual-based microsimulation of regional malaria transmission, we looked at how to apply a therapy as widely as possible without accelerating reduction of efficacy by drug resistance. We compared simultaneous distribution of artemether-lumefantrine, artesunate-amodiaquine, and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (ie, MFT) against strategies in which these ACTs would be cycled or used sequentially, either on a fixed schedule or when population-level efficacy reaches the WHO threshold of 10% treatment failure. The main assessment criterion was total number of treatment failures per 100 people per year. Additionally, we analysed the benefits of including a single non-ACT therapy in an MFT strategy, and did sensitivity analyses in which we varied transmission setting, treatment coverage, partner-drug half-life, fitness cost of drug resistance, and the relation between drug concentration and resistance evolution.FindingsUse of MFT was predicted to reduce the long-term number of treatment failures compared with strategies in which a single first-line ACT is recommended. This result was robust to various epidemiological, pharmacological, and evolutionary features of malaria transmission. Inclusion of a single non-ACT therapy in an MFT strategy would have substantial benefits in reduction of pressure on artemisinin resistance evolution, delaying its emergence and slowing its spread.InterpretationAdjusting national antimalarial treatment guidelines to encourage simultaneous use of MFT is likely to extend the useful therapeutic life of available antimalarial drugs, resulting in long-term beneficial outcomes for patients.FundingWellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, Li Ka Shing Foundation.

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Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies.

Publications

Predicting Global Fund grant disbursements for procurement of artemisinin-based combination therapies.

Similar Datasets

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