Dataset Information

Environmental signatures associated with cholera epidemics.

ABSTRACT: The causative agent of cholera, Vibrio cholerae, has been shown to be autochthonous to riverine, estuarine, and coastal waters along with its host, the copepod, a significant member of the zooplankton community. Temperature, salinity, rainfall and plankton have proven to be important factors in the ecology of V. cholerae, influencing the transmission of the disease in those regions of the world where the human population relies on untreated water as a source of drinking water. In this study, the pattern of cholera outbreaks during 1998-2006 in Kolkata, India, and Matlab, Bangladesh, and the earth observation data were analyzed with the objective of developing a prediction model for cholera. Satellite sensors were used to measure chlorophyll a concentration (CHL) and sea surface temperature (SST). In addition, rainfall data were obtained from both satellite and in situ gauge measurements. From the analyses, a statistically significant relationship between the time series for cholera in Kolkata, India, and CHL and rainfall anomalies was determined. A statistically significant one month lag was observed between CHL anomaly and number of cholera cases in Matlab, Bangladesh. From the results of the study, it is concluded that ocean and climate patterns are useful predictors of cholera epidemics, with the dynamics of endemic cholera being related to climate and/or changes in the aquatic ecosystem. When the ecology of V. cholerae is considered in predictive models, a robust early warning system for cholera in endemic regions of the world can be developed for public health planning and decision making.

SUBMITTER: Constantin de Magny G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2584748 | biostudies-literature | 2008 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Environmental signatures associated with cholera epidemics.

Constantin de Magny Guillaume G Murtugudde Raghu R Sapiano Mathew R P MR Nizam Azhar A Brown Christopher W CW Busalacchi Antonio J AJ Yunus Mohammad M Nair G Balakrish GB Gil Ana I AI Lanata Claudio F CF Calkins John J Manna Byomkesh B Rajendran Krishnan K Bhattacharya Mihir Kumar MK Huq Anwar A Sack R Bradley RB Colwell Rita R RR

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20081110 46

The causative agent of cholera, Vibrio cholerae, has been shown to be autochthonous to riverine, estuarine, and coastal waters along with its host, the copepod, a significant member of the zooplankton community. Temperature, salinity, rainfall and plankton have proven to be important factors in the ecology of V. cholerae, influencing the transmission of the disease in those regions of the world where the human population relies on untreated water as a source of drinking water. In this study, the ...[more]

PMID: 19001267

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Planning interventions to respond to cholera epidemics requires an understanding of the major transmission routes. Interrupting short-cycle (household, foodborne) transmission may require different approaches as compared long-cycle (environmentally-mediated/waterborne) transmission. However, differentiating the relative contribution of short- and long-cycle routes has remained difficult, and most cholera outbreak control efforts focus on interrupting long-cycle transmission. Here we use high-resolution epidemiological and municipal infrastructure data from a cholera outbreak in 1853 Copenhagen to explore the relative contribution of short- and long-cycle transmission routes during a major urban epidemic. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We fit a spatially explicit time-series meta-population model to 6,552 physician-reported cholera cases from Copenhagen in 1853. We estimated the contribution of long-cycle waterborne transmission between neighborhoods using historical municipal water infrastructure data, fitting the force of infection from hydraulic flow, then comparing model performance. We found the epidemic was characterized by considerable transmission heterogeneity. Some neighborhoods acted as localized transmission hotspots, while other neighborhoods were less affected or important in driving the epidemic. We found little evidence to support long-cycle transmission between hydrologically-connected neighborhoods. Collectively, these findings suggest short-cycle transmission was significant. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE:Spatially targeted cholera interventions, such as reactive vaccination or sanitation/hygiene campaigns in hotspot neighborhoods, would likely have been more effective in this epidemic than control measures aimed at interrupting long-cycle transmission, such as improving municipal water quality. We recommend public health planners consider programs aimed at interrupting short-cycle transmission as essential tools in the cholera control arsenal.

Dataset Information

Environmental signatures associated with cholera epidemics.

Publications

Environmental signatures associated with cholera epidemics.

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