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Predictors of mortality in patients with stable COPD.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES: To determine which easily available clinical factors are associated with mortality in patients with stable COPD and if health-related quality of life (HRQoL) provides additional information. DESIGN: Five-year prospective cohort study. SETTING: Five outpatient clinics of a teaching hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Six hundred stable COPD patients recruited consecutively. MEASUREMENTS: The variables were age, FEV(1%), dyspnea, previous hospital admissions and emergency department visits for COPD, pack-years of smoking, comorbidities, body mass index, and HRQoL measured by Saint George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Chronic Respiratory Questionnaire (CRQ), and Short-Form 36 (SF-36). Logistic and Cox regression models were used to assess the influence of these variables on mortality and survival. RESULTS: FEV(1%)(OR: 0.62, 95% CI 0.5 to 0.75), dyspnea (OR 1.92, 95% CI 1.2 to 3), age (OR 2.41, 95% CI 1.6 to 3.6), previous hospitalization due to COPD exacerbations (OR 1.53, 1.2 to 2) and lifetime pack-years (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.1 to 1.2) were independently related to respiratory mortality. Similarly, these factors were independently related to all-cause mortality with dyspnea having the strongest association (OR 1.54, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.2). HRQoL was an independent predictor of respiratory and all-cause mortality only when dyspnea was excluded from the models, except scores on the SGRQ were associated with all-cause mortality with dyspnea in the model. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with stable COPD, FEV(1%) was the main predictor of respiratory mortality and dyspnea of all-cause mortality. In general, HRQoL was not related to mortality when dyspnea was taken into account, and CRQ and SGRQ behaved in similar ways regarding mortality.

SUBMITTER: Esteban C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2585660 | biostudies-literature | 2008 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predictors of mortality in patients with stable COPD.

Esteban Cristóbal C Quintana José M JM Aburto Myriam M Moraza Javier J Egurrola Mikel M España Pedro Pablo PP Pérez-Izquierdo Julio J Capelastegui Alberto A

Journal of general internal medicine 20080916 11

<h4>Objectives</h4>To determine which easily available clinical factors are associated with mortality in patients with stable COPD and if health-related quality of life (HRQoL) provides additional information.<h4>Design</h4>Five-year prospective cohort study.<h4>Setting</h4>Five outpatient clinics of a teaching hospital.<h4>Participants</h4>Six hundred stable COPD patients recruited consecutively.<h4>Measurements</h4>The variables were age, FEV(1%), dyspnea, previous hospital admissions and emer ...[more]

PMID: 18795373

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Despite the frequency and negative impact of low physical activity among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), little is known about how it persists and remits over time or the factors predicting new states of low physical activity. The aim of the study was to determine the probability of a transition between states of low and nonlow physical activity in a cohort of patients with stable COPD followed for 2?years. We also investigated different potentially modifiable factors to determine whether they can predict new states of low physical activity. METHODS:We prospectively included 137 patients with stable COPD (mean age 66.9?±?8.3?years). Physical activity was measured at baseline and at 1 and 2?years of follow up. Low physical activity was defined according to energy expenditure by cut-off points from the Fried frailty model. The likelihood of annual transition towards new states and recovery was calculated. We evaluated demographic, frailty, nonrespiratory, and respiratory variables as potential predictors, using generalized estimating equations. RESULTS:At baseline, 37 patients (27%) presented with low physical activity. During the study period, a total of 179 annual transitions were identified with nonlow physical activity at the beginning of the year; 17.5% transitioned to low physical activity. In contrast, 34.3% of the 67 transitions that started with low physical activity recovered. Predictors of transition to new states of low physical activity were dyspnea ?2 (odds ratio?=?3.21; 95% confidence interval: 1.20-8.61) and poor performance on the five sit-to-stand test (odds ratio?=?4.75; 95% confidence interval: 1.30-17.47). CONCLUSIONS:The change between levels of low and nonlow physical activity is dynamic, especially for recovery. Annual transitions toward new states of low physical activity are likely among patients with dyspnea or poor performance on the five sit-to-stand test. The reviews of this paper are available via the supplemental material section.

Project description:BackgroundChronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of mortality. Patients with advanced disease often have a poor quality of life, such that guidelines recommend providing palliative care in their last year of life. Uptake and use of palliative care in advanced COPD is low; difficulty in predicting 1-year mortality is thought to be a major contributing factor.MethodsWe identified two primary care COPD cohorts using UK electronic healthcare records (Clinical Practice Research Datalink). The first cohort was randomised equally into training and test sets. An external dataset was drawn from a second cohort. A risk model to predict mortality within 12 months was derived from the training set using backwards elimination Cox regression. The model was given the acronym BARC based on putative prognostic factors including body mass index and blood results (B), age (A), respiratory variables (airflow obstruction, exacerbations, smoking) (R) and comorbidities (C). The BARC index predictive performance was validated in the test set and external dataset by assessing calibration and discrimination. The observed and expected probabilities of death were assessed for increasing quartiles of mortality risk (very low risk, low risk, moderate risk, high risk). The BARC index was compared to the established index scores body mass index, obstructive, dyspnoea and exacerbations (BODEx), dyspnoea, obstruction, smoking and exacerbations (DOSE) and age, dyspnoea and obstruction (ADO).ResultsFifty-four thousand nine hundred ninety patients were eligible from the first cohort and 4931 from the second cohort. Eighteen variables were included in the BARC, including age, airflow obstruction, body mass index, smoking, exacerbations and comorbidities. The risk model had acceptable predictive performance (test set: C-index = 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.81, D-statistic = 1.87, 95% CI 1.77-1.96, calibration slope = 0.95, 95% CI 0.9-0.99; external dataset: C-index = 0.67, 95% CI 0.65-0.7, D-statistic = 0.98, 95% CI 0.8-1.2, calibration slope = 0.54, 95% CI 0.45-0.64) and acceptable accuracy predicting the probability of death (probability of death in 1 year, n high-risk group, test set: expected = 0.31, observed = 0.30; external dataset: expected = 0.22, observed = 0.27). The BARC compared favourably to existing index scores that can also be applied without specialist respiratory variables (area under the curve: BARC = 0.78, 95% CI 0.76-0.79; BODEx = 0.48, 95% CI 0.45-0.51; DOSE = 0.60, 95% CI 0.57-0.61; ADO = 0.68, 95% CI 0.66-0.69, external dataset: BARC = 0.70, 95% CI 0.67-0.72; BODEx = 0.41, 95% CI 0.38-0.45; DOSE = 0.52, 95% CI 0.49-0.55; ADO = 0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.60).ConclusionThe BARC index performed better than existing tools in predicting 1-year mortality. Critically, the risk score only requires routinely collected non-specialist information which, therefore, could help identify patients seen in primary care that may benefit from palliative care.

Project description:ObjectiveTo develop a practicable nomogram aimed at predicting the risk of severe exacerbations in COPD patients at three and five years.MethodsCOPD patients with prospective follow-up data were extracted from Subpopulations and Intermediate Outcome Measures in COPD Study (SPIROMICS) obtained from National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) Biologic Specimen and Data Repository Information Coordinating Center. We comprehensively considered the demographic characteristics, clinical data and inflammation marker of disease severity. Cox proportional hazard regression was performed to identify the best combination of predictors on the basis of the smallest Akaike Information Criterion. A nomogram was developed and evaluated on discrimination, calibration, and clinical efficacy by the concordance index (C-index), calibration plot and decision curve analysis, respectively. Internal validation of the nomogram was assessed by the calibration plot with 1000 bootstrapped resamples.ResultsAmong 1711 COPD patients, 523 (30.6%) suffered from at least one severe exacerbation during follow-up. After stepwise regression analysis, six variables were determined including BMI, severe exacerbations in the prior year, comorbidity index, post-bronchodilator FEV1% predicted, and white blood cells. Nomogram to estimate patients' likelihood of severe exacerbations at three and five years was established. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.74 (95%CI: 0.71-0.76), outperforming ADO, BODE and DOSE risk score. Besides, the calibration plot of three and five years showed great agreement between nomogram predicted possibility and actual risk. Decision curve analysis indicated that implementation of the nomogram in clinical practice would be beneficial and better than aforementioned risk scores.ConclusionOur new nomogram was a useful tool to assess the probability of severe exacerbations at three and five years for COPD patients and could facilitate clinicians in stratifying patients and providing optimal therapies.

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Predictors of mortality in patients with stable COPD.

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Predictors of mortality in patients with stable COPD.

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