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A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic. METHOD: We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic influenza in this community and the effect on daily and final attack rates of four social distancing measures: school closure, increased case isolation, workplace non-attendance and community contact reduction. We compared the modelled results of final attack rates in the absence of any interventions and the effect of school closure as a single intervention with other published individual based models of pandemic influenza in the developed world. RESULTS: We showed that published individual based models estimate similar final attack rates over a range of values for R(0) in a pandemic where no interventions have been implemented; that multiple social distancing measures applied early and continuously can be very effective in interrupting transmission of the pandemic virus for R(0) values up to 2.5; and that different conclusions reached on the simulated benefit of school closure in published models appear to result from differences in assumptions about the timing and duration of school closure and flow-on effects on other social contacts resulting from school closure. CONCLUSION: Models of the spread and control of pandemic influenza have the potential to assist policy makers with decisions about which control strategies to adopt. However, attention needs to be given by policy makers to the assumptions underpinning both the models and the control strategies examined.

SUBMITTER: Milne GJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2602849 | biostudies-literature | 2008

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic.

Milne George J GJ Kelso Joel K JK Kelly Heath A HA Huband Simon T ST McVernon Jodie J

PloS one 20081223 12

<h4>Background</h4>In the absence of other evidence, modelling has been used extensively to help policy makers plan for a potential future influenza pandemic.<h4>Method</h4>We have constructed an individual based model of a small community in the developed world with detail down to exact household structure obtained from census collection datasets and precise simulation of household demographics, movement within the community and individual contact patterns. We modelled the spread of pandemic in ...[more]

PMID: 19104659

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Project description:BackgroundSchool environments are thought to play an important role in the community spread of infectious diseases such as influenza because of the high mixing rates of school children. The closure of schools has therefore been proposed as an efficient mitigation strategy. Such measures come however with high associated social and economic costs, making alternative, less disruptive interventions highly desirable. The recent availability of high-resolution contact network data from school environments provides an opportunity to design models of micro-interventions and compare the outcomes of alternative mitigation measures.Methods and resultsWe model mitigation measures that involve the targeted closure of school classes or grades based on readily available information such as the number of symptomatic infectious children in a class. We focus on the specific case of a primary school for which we have high-resolution data on the close-range interactions of children and teachers. We simulate the spread of an influenza-like illness in this population by using an SEIR model with asymptomatics, and compare the outcomes of different mitigation strategies. We find that targeted class closure affords strong mitigation effects: closing a class for a fixed period of time--equal to the sum of the average infectious and latent durations--whenever two infectious individuals are detected in that class decreases the attack rate by almost 70% and significantly decreases the probability of a severe outbreak. The closure of all classes of the same grade mitigates the spread almost as much as closing the whole school.ConclusionsOur model of targeted class closure strategies based on readily available information on symptomatic subjects and on limited information on mixing patterns, such as the grade structure of the school, shows that these strategies might be almost as effective as whole-school closure, at a much lower cost. This may inform public health policies for the management and mitigation of influenza-like outbreaks in the community.

Project description:PURPOSE: The rate of severe outcomes of patients with 2009 pandemic (A/H1N1) influenza (2009pI) hospitalized in non-intensive care units (ICUs) has not been defined thus far. This study aims to assess the efficacy of the management of patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) of moderate intermediate severity in an infectious diseases unit (IDU) during the first wave of 2009pI and its influence on the burden of ICUs. METHODS: All patients hospitalized from October 27, 2009, to February 5, 2010, with ILI were included in this prospective observational study. The IDU was organized and the staff was trained to provide intermediate care; patients were transferred to the ICU only if they required invasive ventilation, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or advanced cardiovascular support. Demographic data, clinical presentation, coexisting medical conditions, and laboratory and radiological findings were recorded and analyzed, as well as treatment and outcome data. RESULTS: Overall, 108 patients (median age 36 years [IQR 27-54], 57.4% males) including 66.7% with ≥ 1 risk factor for severe influenza, 47.2% with confirmed 2009pI by RT-PCR and 63.9% with pneumonia, were enrolled in the study. All subjects received intravenous fluids and 83.3% were administered oseltamivir, 96.3% antibacterials, 19.4% oxygen therapy without ventilatory support, and 10.2% non-invasive ventilation. A total of 106 (98.1%) subjects were discharged after a 6-day median hospital stay [IQR 4-9]. Two patients (1.9%) were transferred to the ICU. There were no deaths. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest that the aggressive treatment of patients with moderate intermediate severity 2009 pandemic ILI in non-ICU wards may result in a low rate of severe outcomes and brief hospitalization. IDUs, if properly organized for intermediate care, may efficiently provide correct disease management, in addition to complying with infection control requirements, thus reducing the burden of the pandemic on ICUs. Further studies are warranted to evaluate the outcome of patients with moderate intermediate 2009pI in different non-ICU settings.

Dataset Information

A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic.

Publications

A small community model for the transmission of infectious diseases: comparison of school closure as an intervention in individual-based models of an influenza pandemic.

Similar Datasets

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