Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Majumder SR
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2630077 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Jan
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Majumder Saikat Ray SR Diermeier Daniel D Rietz Thomas A TA Amaral Luís A Nunes LA
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20090101 3
Prediction markets, in which contract prices are used to forecast future events, are increasingly applied to various domains ranging from political contests to scientific breakthroughs. However, the dynamics of such markets are not well understood. Here, we study the return dynamics of the oldest, most data-rich prediction markets, the Iowa Electronic Presidential Election "winner-takes-all" markets. As with other financial markets, we find uncorrelated returns, power-law decaying volatility cor ...[more]