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Genetic diversity in the SIR model of pathogen evolution.

ABSTRACT: We introduce a model for assessing the levels and patterns of genetic diversity in pathogen populations, whose epidemiology follows a susceptible-infected-recovered model (SIR). We model the population of pathogens as a metapopulation composed of subpopulations (infected hosts), where pathogens replicate and mutate. Hosts transmit pathogens to uninfected hosts. We show that the level of pathogen variation is well predicted by analytical expressions, such that pathogen neutral molecular variation is bounded by the level of infection and increases with the duration of infection. We then introduce selection in the model and study the invasion probability of a new pathogenic strain whose fitness (R(0)(1+s)) is higher than the fitness of the resident strain (R(0)). We show that this invasion probability is given by the relative increment in R(0) of the new pathogen (s). By analyzing the patterns of genetic diversity in this framework, we identify the molecular signatures during the replacement and compare these with those observed in sequences of influenza A.

SUBMITTER: Gordo I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2653725 | biostudies-literature | 2009

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Genetic diversity in the SIR model of pathogen evolution.

Gordo Isabel I Gomes M Gabriela M MG Reis Daniel G DG Campos Paulo R A PR

PloS one 20090316 3

We introduce a model for assessing the levels and patterns of genetic diversity in pathogen populations, whose epidemiology follows a susceptible-infected-recovered model (SIR). We model the population of pathogens as a metapopulation composed of subpopulations (infected hosts), where pathogens replicate and mutate. Hosts transmit pathogens to uninfected hosts. We show that the level of pathogen variation is well predicted by analytical expressions, such that pathogen neutral molecular variation ...[more]

PMID: 19287490

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Project description:Flavobacterium psychrophilum, the etiological agent of rainbow trout fry syndrome and bacterial cold-water disease in salmonid fish, is currently one of the main bacterial pathogens hampering the productivity of salmonid farming worldwide. In this study, the genomic diversity of the F. psychrophilum species is analyzed using a set of 41 genomes, including 30 newly sequenced isolates. These were selected on the basis of available MLST data with the two-fold objective of maximizing the coverage of the species diversity and of allowing a focus on the main clonal complex (CC-ST10) infecting farmed rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) worldwide. The results reveal a bacterial species harboring a limited genomic diversity both in terms of nucleotide diversity, with ~0.3% nucleotide divergence inside CDSs in pairwise genome comparisons, and in terms of gene repertoire, with the core genome accounting for ~80% of the genes in each genome. The pan-genome seems nevertheless "open" according to the scaling exponent of a power-law fitted on the rate of new gene discovery when genomes are added one-by-one. Recombination is a key component of the evolutionary process of the species as seen in the high level of apparent homoplasy in the core genome. Using a Hidden Markov Model to delineate recombination tracts in pairs of closely related genomes, the average recombination tract length was estimated to ~4.0 Kbp and the typical ratio of the contributions of recombination and mutations to nucleotide-level differentiation (r/m) was estimated to ~13. Within CC-ST10, evolutionary distances computed on non-recombined regions and comparisons between 22 isolates sampled up to 27 years apart suggest a most recent common ancestor in the second half of the nineteenth century in North America with subsequent diversification and transmission of this clonal complex coinciding with the worldwide expansion of rainbow trout farming. With the goal to promote the development of tools for the genetic manipulation of F. psychrophilum, a particular attention was also paid to plasmids. Their extraction and sequencing to completion revealed plasmid diversity that remained hidden to classical plasmid profiling due to size similarities.

Dataset Information

Genetic diversity in the SIR model of pathogen evolution.

Publications

Genetic diversity in the SIR model of pathogen evolution.

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