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Mumps, measles, and rubella vaccine and the incidence of autism recorded by general practitioners: a time trend analysis.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:To estimate changes in the risk of autism and assess the relation of autism to the mumps, measles, and rubella (MMR) vaccine. DESIGN:Time trend analysis of data from the UK general practice research database (GPRD). SETTING:General practices in the United Kingdom. SUBJECTS:Children aged 12 years or younger diagnosed with autism 1988-99, with further analysis of boys aged 2 to 5 years born 1988-93. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES:Annual and age specific incidence for first recorded diagnoses of autism (that is, when the diagnosis of autism was first recorded) in the children aged 12 years or younger; annual, birth cohort specific risk of autism diagnosed in the 2 to 5 year old boys; coverage (prevalence) of MMR vaccination in the same birth cohorts. RESULTS:The incidence of newly diagnosed autism increased sevenfold, from 0.3 per 10 000 person years in 1988 to 2.1 per 10 000 person years in 1999. The peak incidence was among 3 and 4 year olds, and 83% (254/305) of cases were boys. In an annual birth cohort analysis of 114 boys born in 1988-93, the risk of autism in 2 to 5 year old boys increased nearly fourfold over time, from 8 (95% confidence interval 4 to 14) per 10 000 for boys born in 1988 to 29 (20 to 43) per 10 000 for boys born in 1993. For the same annual birth cohorts the prevalence of MMR vaccination was over 95%. CONCLUSIONS:Because the incidence of autism among 2 to 5 year olds increased markedly among boys born in each year separately from 1988 to 1993 while MMR vaccine coverage was over 95% for successive annual birth cohorts, the data provide evidence that no correlation exists between the prevalence of MMR vaccination and the rapid increase in the risk of autism over time. The explanation for the marked increase in risk of the diagnosis of autism in the past decade remains uncertain.

SUBMITTER: Kaye JA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC26561 | biostudies-literature | 2001 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Mumps, measles, and rubella vaccine and the incidence of autism recorded by general practitioners: a time trend analysis.

Kaye J A JA del Mar Melero-Montes M M Jick H H

BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 20010201 7284

<h4>Objective</h4>To estimate changes in the risk of autism and assess the relation of autism to the mumps, measles, and rubella (MMR) vaccine.<h4>Design</h4>Time trend analysis of data from the UK general practice research database (GPRD).<h4>Setting</h4>General practices in the United Kingdom.<h4>Subjects</h4>Children aged 12 years or younger diagnosed with autism 1988-99, with further analysis of boys aged 2 to 5 years born 1988-93.<h4>Main outcome measures</h4>Annual and age specific inciden ...[more]

PMID: 11222420

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Project description:BackgroundThe reported coverage of the measles-rubella (MR) or measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine is greater than 99.0% in Zhejiang province. However, the incidence of measles, mumps, and rubella remains high. In this study, we assessed MMR seropositivity and disease distribution by age on the basis of the current vaccination program, wherein the first dose of MR is administered at 8 months and the second dose of MMR is administered at 18-24 months.MethodsCross-sectional serological surveys of MMR antibodies were conducted by collecting epidemiological data in Zhejiang province, China in 2011. In total, 1015 participants were randomly selected from two surveillance sites. Serum MMR-specific immunoglobulin G levels were tested by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. The geometric mean titers and seroprevalence with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by age and gender. Proportions of different dose of vaccine by age by vaccine were also identified. Statistically significant differences between categories were assessed by the Chi-square test.ResultsOver 95% seroprevalence rates of measles were seen in all age groups except <7 months infants. Children aged 5-9 years were shown lower seropositivity rates of mumps while elder adolescences and young adults were presented lower rubella seroprevalence. Especially, rubella seropositivity was significantly lower in female adults than in male. Nine measles cases were unvaccinated or unknown vaccination history. Among them, 66.67% (6/9) patients were aged 20-29 years while 33.33% (3/9) were infants aged 8-12 months. In addition, 57.75% (648/1122) patients with mumps were children aged 5-9 years, and 50.54% (94/186) rubella cases were aged 15-39 years.ConclusionsA timely two-dose MMR vaccination schedule is recommended, with the first dose at 8 months and the second dose at 18-24 months. An MR vaccination speed-up campaign may be necessary for elder adolescents and young adults, particularly young females.

Dataset Information

Mumps, measles, and rubella vaccine and the incidence of autism recorded by general practitioners: a time trend analysis.

Publications

Mumps, measles, and rubella vaccine and the incidence of autism recorded by general practitioners: a time trend analysis.

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