Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kriegler E
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2657590 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Mar
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system.
Kriegler Elmar E Hall Jim W JW Held Hermann H Dawson Richard R Schellnhuber Hans Joachim HJ
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20090316 13
Major restructuring of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and ENSO, are a source of concern for climate policy. We have elicited subjective probability intervals for the occurrence of such major changes under global warming from 43 scientists. Although the expert estimates highlight large uncertainty, they allocate significant probability to some of the events listed above. We deduce conservative lower bounds for th ...[more]
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