Dataset Information

The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960-2006.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Malaria remains a serious problem in Colombia. The number of malaria cases is governed by multiple climatic and non-climatic factors. Malaria control policies, and climate controls such as rainfall and temperature variations associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been associated with malaria case numbers. Using historical climate data and annual malaria case number data from 1960 to 2006, statistical models are developed to isolate the effects of climate in each of Colombia's five contrasting geographical regions. METHODS: Because year to year climate variability associated with ENSO causes interannual variability in malaria case numbers, while changes in population and institutional control policy result in more gradual trends, the chosen predictors in the models are annual indices of the ENSO state (sea surface temperature [SST] in the tropical Pacific Ocean) and time reference indices keyed to two major malaria trends during the study period. Two models were used: a Poisson and a Negative Binomial regression model. Two ENSO indices, two time reference indices, and one dummy variable are chosen as candidate predictors. The analysis was conducted using the five geographical regions to match the similar aggregation used by the National Institute of Health for its official reports. RESULTS: The Negative Binomial regression model is found better suited to the malaria cases in Colombia. Both the trend variables and the ENSO measures are significant predictors of malaria case numbers in Colombia as a whole, and in two of the five regions. A one degree Celsius change in SST (indicating a weak to moderate ENSO event) is seen to translate to an approximate 20% increase in malaria cases, holding other variables constant. CONCLUSION: Regional differentiation in the role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden during 1960-2006 was found, constituting a new approach to use ENSO as a significant predictor of the malaria cases in Colombia. These results naturally point to additional needed work: (1) refining the regional and seasonal dependence of climate on the ENSO state, and of malaria on the climate variables; (2) incorporating ENSO-related climate variability into dynamic malaria models.

SUBMITTER: Mantilla G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2661091 | biostudies-literature | 2009

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960-2006.

Mantilla Gilma G Oliveros Hugo H Barnston Anthony G AG

Malaria journal 20090108

<h4>Background</h4>Malaria remains a serious problem in Colombia. The number of malaria cases is governed by multiple climatic and non-climatic factors. Malaria control policies, and climate controls such as rainfall and temperature variations associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), have been associated with malaria case numbers. Using historical climate data and annual malaria case number data from 1960 to 2006, statistical models are developed to isolate the effects of climate ...[more]

PMID: 19133152

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Project description:BackgroundCervical cancer (CC) promotion and prevention (P&P) programmes' challenge lies in guaranteeing that follow-up strategies have a real impact on reducing CC-related mortality rates. CC P&P programme compliance and coverage rates are relevant indicators for evaluating their success and good performance; however, such indicators' frequency rates are considerably lower among women living in rural and border areas. This study was aimed at identifying factors associated with CC screening programme attendance for women living in Colombia's Amazon region.MethodsThis study (qualitative and quantitative phases) was carried out between September 2015 and November 2016; women residing in the border towns of Leticia and Puerto Nariño participated in it. The first phase (qualitative) involved interviews and focus group discussions; this led to establishing factors related to CC P&P programme attendance which were used in the quantitative phase for designing a survey for determining the strength of association in a logistic regression model. The terms attendance and compliance were considered to apply to women who had followed the 1-1-3 scheme throughout their lives, i.e. a cytology examination every 3 years after receiving two consecutive negative annual cytology results.ResultsInclusion criteria were met by 309 women (≥18-year-olds having an active sexual life, having resided in the target community for at least one year); 15.2% had suitable P&P programme follow-up. Screening programme attendance was positively associated with first intercourse after becoming 20 years-old (aOR: 3.87; 1.03-9.50 95%CI; p = 0.045), frequent contraceptive use (aOR: 3.11; 1.16-8.33 95%CI; p = 0.023), awareness of the age to participate in P&P programmes (aOR: 2.69; 1.08-6.68 95%CI; p = 0.032), awareness of cytology's usefulness in identifying cervical abnormalities (aOR: 2.43; 1.02-5.77 95%CI; p = 0.043) and considering cytology important (aOR: 2.64; 1.12-6.19 95%CI; p = 0.025). Women living in rural areas had a lower probability (aOR 0.43: 0.24-0.79 95%CI; p = 0.006) of adhering to CC P&P programmes.ConclusionsThis study's findings suggested the need for including novel strategies in screening programmes which will promote CC P&P activities going beyond hospital outpatient attendance to reach the most remote or widely scattered communities, having the same guarantees regarding access, opportunity and quality. Including education-related activities and stimulating the population's awareness regarding knowledge about CC prevention could be one of the main tools for furthering the impact of attendance at and compliance with P&P programmes.

Project description:Although drug-based treatment is the primary intervention for malaria control and elimination, optimal use of targeted treatments remains unclear. From 2008 to 2016, three targeted programs on treatment were undertaken in Kachin Special Region II (KR2), Myanmar. Program I (2008-2011) treated all confirmed, clinical and suspected cases; program II (2012-2013) treated confirmed and clinical cases; and program III (2014-2016) targeted confirmed cases only. This study aims to evaluate the impacts of the three programs on malaria burden individually based on the annual parasite incidence (API), slide positivity rate (SPR) and their relative values. The API is calculated from original collected data and the incidence rate ratio (IRR) for each year is calculated by using the first-year API as a reference in each program phase across the KR2. Same method is applied to calculate SPR and risk ratio (RR) at the sentinel hospital too. During program I (2008-2011), malaria burden was reduced by 61% (95%CI: 58%-74%) and the actual API decreased from 9.8 (95%CI: 9.6-10.1) per 100 person-years in 2008 to 3.8 (3.6-4.1) per 100 person-years in 2011. Amid program II (2012-2013), the malaria burden increased by 33% (95%CI: 22%-46%) and the actual API increased from 2.1(95%CI: 2.0-2.3) per 100 person-years in 2012 to 2.8 (95%CI: 2.7-2.9) per 100 person-years in 2013. During program III (2014-2016) the malaria burden increased furtherly by 60% (95%CI: 51% - 69%) and the actual API increased from 3.2(95%CI: 3.0-3.3) per 100 person-years in 2014 to 5.1 (95%CI: 4.9-5.2) per 100 person-years in 2016. Results of the slide positivity of the sentinel hospital also confirm these results. Resurgence of malaria was mainly due to Plasmodium vivax during program II and III. This study indicates that strategy adopted in program I (2008-2011) should be more appropriate for the KR2. Quality-assured treatment of all confirmed, clinical and suspected malaria cases may be helpful for the reduction of malaria burden.

Dataset Information

The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960-2006.

Publications

The role of ENSO in understanding changes in Colombia's annual malaria burden by region, 1960-2006.

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