Capacity of Thailand to contain an emerging influenza pandemic.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Putthasri W
PROVIDER: S-EPMC2666290 | biostudies-literature |
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
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Project description:Antiviral drugs dispensed during the 2009 influenza pandemic generally failed to contain transmission. This poses the question of whether preparedness for a future pandemic should include plans to use antiviral drugs to mitigate transmission.Simulations using a standard transmission model that allows for infected arrivals and delayed vaccination show that attempts to contain transmission require relatively few antiviral doses. In contrast, persistent use of antiviral drugs when the reproduction number remains above 1 use very many doses and are unlikely to reduce the eventual attack rate appreciably unless the stockpile is very large. A second model, in which the community has a household structure, shows that the effectiveness of a strategy of dispensing antiviral drugs to infected households decreases rapidly with time delays in dispensing the antivirals. Using characteristics of past pandemics it is estimated that at least 80% of primary household cases must present upon show of symptoms to have a chance of containing transmission by dispensing antiviral drugs to households. To determine data needs, household outbreaks were simulated with 50% receiving antiviral drugs early and 50% receiving antiviral drugs late. A test to compare the size of household outbreaks indicates that at least 100-200 household outbreaks need to be monitored to find evidence that antiviral drugs can mitigate transmission of the newly emerged virus.Use of antiviral drugs in an early attempt to contain transmission should be part of preparedness plans for a future influenza pandemic. Data on the incidence of the first 350 cases and the eventual attack rates of the first 200 hundred household outbreaks should be used to estimate the initial reproduction number R and the effectiveness of antiviral drugs to mitigate transmission. Use of antiviral drugs to mitigate general transmission should cease if these estimates indicate that containment of transmission is unlikely.
| S-EPMC3065466 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The study was aimed at determining the prevalence of pandemic influenza (H1N1) 2009 among patients with respiratory tract diseases during July-December 2009 using real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction. Haemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay was performed to detect antibody titres against pandemic influenza in 255 medical personnel, 307 members of the general population during the second week of December 2009 in Khon Kaen province, Thailand, and in 100 stored sera collected from people of different age-groups during 2008. The results showed that the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 had occurred during July-December 2009. The results of the HI test after the wave of this outbreak showed that 123 (48%) of the 255 sera collected from the medical personnel, 109 (36%) of the 307 sera obtained from the general population, and only two of the 100 stored sera from 2008 contained antibodies (HI titres > or = 40) against pandemic influenza. Antibody against the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 was found in at least one-third of the population. In conclusion, the prevalence of virus and serological data obtained from the study can be used as the serological background level of the Thai population after the July-December pandemic. Finally, the serological data might be useful for outbreak-prevention and control strategies and for the management of vaccination for the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in Thailand.
| S-EPMC2995021 | biostudies-literature
Project description:In 2009, Thailand experienced rapid spread of the pandemic influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus. The national response came under intense public scrutiny as the number of confirmed cases and associated deaths increased. Thus, during July-December 2009, the Ministry of Public Health and the World Health Organization jointly reviewed the response efforts. The review found that the actions taken were largely appropriate and proportionate to need. However, areas needing improvement were surveillance, laboratory capacity, hospital infection control and surge capacity, coordination and monitoring of guidelines for clinical management and nonpharmaceutical interventions, risk communications, and addressing vulnerabilities of non-Thai displaced and migrant populations. The experience in Thailand may be applicable to other countries and settings, and the lessons learned may help strengthen responses to other pandemics or comparable prolonged public health emergencies.
| S-EPMC3376790 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The 2009 H1N1 influenza A virus that has targeted not only those with chronic medical illness, the very young and old, but also a large segment of the patient population that has previously been afforded relative protection - those who are young, generally healthy, and immune naive. The illness is mild in most, but results in hospitalization and severe ARDS in an important minority. Among those who become critically ill, 20-40% will die, predominantly of severe hypoxic respiratory failure. However, and potentially in part due to the young age of those affected, intensive care with aggressive oxygenation support will allow most people to recover. The volume of patients infected and with critical illness placed substantial strain on the capacity of the health care system and critical care most specifically. Despite this, the 2009 pandemic has engaged our specialty and highlighted its importance like no other. Thus far, the national and global critical care response has been brisk, collaborative and helpful - not only for this pandemic, but for subsequent challenges in years ahead.
| S-EPMC3256529 | biostudies-other
Project description:A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially biased and originating from multiple sources. This seriously challenges the capacity for real-time monitoring. Here, we assess the feasibility of real-time inference based on such data by constructing an analytic tool combining an age-stratified SEIR transmission model with various observation models describing the data generation mechanisms. As batches of data become available, a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm is developed to synthesise multiple imperfect data streams, iterate epidemic inferences and assess model adequacy amidst a rapidly evolving epidemic environment, substantially reducing computation time in comparison to standard MCMC, to ensure timely delivery of real-time epidemic assessments. In application to simulated data designed to mimic the 2009 A/H1N1 epidemic, SMC is shown to have additional benefits in terms of assessing predictive performance and coping with parameter nonidentifiability.
| S-EPMC7612182 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The present study conducted serosurveillance for the presence of antibody to pandemic influenza A (H1N1) 2009 virus (H1N1pdm virus) in archival serum samples collected between 2009 and 2013 from 317 domestic elephants living in 19 provinces situated in various parts of Thailand. To obtain the most accurate data, hemagglutination-inhibition (HI) assay was employed as the screening test; and sera with HI antibody titers ≥20 were further confirmed by other methods, including cytopathic effect/hemagglutination based-microneutralization (microNT) and Western blot (WB) assays using H1N1pdm matrix 1 (M1) or hemagglutinin (HA) recombinant protein as the test antigen. Conclusively, the appropriate assays using HI in conjunction with WB assays for HA antibody revealed an overall seropositive rate of 8.5% (27 of 317). The prevalence of antibody to H1N1pdm virus was 2% (4/172) in 2009, 32% (17/53) in 2010, 9% (2/22) in 2011, 12% (1/8) in 2012, and 5% (3/62) in 2013. Notably, these positive serum samples were collected from elephants living in 7 tourist provinces of Thailand. The highest seropositive rate was obtained from elephants in Phuket, a popular tourist beach city. Young elephants had higher seropositive rate than older elephants. The source of H1N1pdm viral infection in these elephants was not explored, but most likely came from close contact with the infected mahouts or from the infected tourists who engaged in activities such as elephant riding and feeding. Nevertheless, it could not be excluded that elephant-to-elephant transmission did occur.
| S-EPMC5658122 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Vaccines will be an important element in mitigating the impact of an influenza pandemic. While research towards developing universal influenza vaccines is ongoing, the current strategy for vaccine supply in a pandemic relies on seasonal influenza vaccine production to be switched over to pandemic vaccines. Understanding how much vaccine could be produced, in which regions of the world and in what timeframe is critical to informing influenza pandemic preparedness. Through the Global Action Plan for Influenza Vaccines, 2006-2016, WHO promoted an increase in vaccine production capacity and monitors the landscape through periodically surveying influenza vaccine manufacturers. This study compares global capacity for production of influenza vaccines in 2019 with estimates from previous surveys; provides an overview of countries with established production facilities; presents vaccine production by type and manufacturing process; and discusses limitations to these estimates. Results of the current survey show that estimated annual seasonal influenza vaccine production capacity changed little since 2015 increasing from 1.47 billion to 1.48 billion doses with potential maximum annual influenza pandemic vaccine production capacity increasing from 6.37 billion to 8.31 billion doses. However, this figure should be interpreted with caution as it presents a best-case scenario with several assumptions which may impact supply. Further, pandemic vaccines would not be immediately available and could take four to six months for first supplies with several more months needed to reach maximum capacity. A moderate-case scenario is also presented of 4.15 billion doses of pandemic vaccine in 12 months. It is important to note that two doses of pandemic vaccine are likely to be required to elicit an adequate immune response. Continued efforts are needed to ensure the sustainability of this production and to conduct research for vaccines that are faster to produce and more broadly protective taking into account lessons learned from COVID-19 vaccine development.
| S-EPMC7814984 | biostudies-literature
Project description:A global shortage and inequitable access to influenza vaccines has been cause for concern for developing countries who face dire consequences in the event of a pandemic. The Global Action Plan for Influenza Vaccines (GAP) was launched in 2006 to increase global capacity for influenza vaccine production to address these concerns. It is widely recognized that well-developed infrastructure to produce seasonal influenza vaccines leads to increased capacity to produce pandemic influenza vaccines. This article summarizes the results of a survey administered to 44 manufacturers to assess their production capacity for seasonal influenza and pandemic influenza vaccine production. When the GAP was launched in 2006, global production capacity for seasonal and pandemic vaccines was estimated to be 500million and 1.5billion doses respectively. Since 2006 there has been a significant increase in capacity, with the 2013 survey estimating global capacity at 1.5billion seasonal and 6.2billion pandemic doses. Results of the current survey showed that global seasonal influenza vaccine production capacity has decreased since 2013 from 1.504billion doses to 1.467billion doses. However, notwithstanding the overall global decrease in seasonal vaccine capacity there were notable positive changes in the distribution of production capacity with increases noted in South East Asia (SEAR) and the Western Pacific (WPR) regions, albeit on a small scale. Despite a decrease in seasonal capacity, there has been a global increase of pandemic influenza vaccine production capacity from 6.2 billion doses in 2013 to 6.4 billion doses in 2015. This growth can be attributed to a shift towards more quadrivalent vaccine production and also to increased use of adjuvants. Pandemic influenza vaccine production capacity is at its highest recorded levels however challenges remain in maintaining this capacity and in ensuring access in the event of a pandemic to underserved regions.
| S-EPMC5357707 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The recent outbreaks of influenza A/H5N1 and 'swine influenza' A/H1N1 have caused global concern over the potential for a new influenza pandemic. Although it is impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur, appropriate planning is still needed to maximize efficient use of resources and to minimize loss of life and productivity. Many tools now exist to assist countries in evaluating their plans but there is little to aid in writing of the plans. This study discusses the process of drafting a pandemic influenza preparedness plan for developing countries that conforms to the International Health Regulations of 2005 and recommendations of the World Health Organization. Stakeholders from many sectors should be involved in drafting a comprehensive pandemic influenza plan that addresses all levels of preparedness.
| S-EPMC4634685 | biostudies-other
Project description:BackgroundResearch has shown the value of conducting a macroeconomic analysis of the impact of influenza pandemics. However, previous modelling applications focus on high-income countries, and there is a lack of evidence concerning the potential impact of an influenza pandemic on lower- and middle-income countries.ObjectivesTo estimate the macroeconomic impact of pandemic influenza in Thailand, South Africa and Uganda with particular reference to pandemic (H1N1) 2009.MethodsA single-country whole-economy Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was set up for each of the three countries in question and used to estimate the economic impact of declines in labour attributable to morbidity, mortality and school closure.ResultsOverall GDP impacts were less than 1% of GDP for all countries and scenarios. Uganda's losses were proportionally larger than those of Thailand and South Africa. Labour-intensive sectors suffer the largest losses.ConclusionThe economic cost of unavoidable absence in the event of an influenza pandemic could be proportionally larger for low-income countries. The cost of mild pandemics, such as pandemic (H1N1) 2009, appears to be small, but could increase for more severe pandemics and/or pandemics with greater behavioural change and avoidable absence.
| S-EPMC5909395 | biostudies-literature