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Genomic epidemiology of a dengue virus epidemic in urban Singapore.

ABSTRACT: Dengue is one of the most important emerging diseases of humans, with no preventative vaccines or antiviral cures available at present. Although one-third of the world's population live at risk of infection, little is known about the pattern and dynamics of dengue virus (DENV) within outbreak situations. By exploiting genomic data from an intensively studied major outbreak, we are able to describe the molecular epidemiology of DENV at a uniquely fine-scaled temporal and spatial resolution. Two DENV serotypes (DENV-1 and DENV-3), and multiple component genotypes, spread concurrently and with similar epidemiological and evolutionary profiles during the initial outbreak phase of a major dengue epidemic that took place in Singapore during 2005. Although DENV-1 and DENV-3 differed in viremia and clinical outcome, there was no evidence for adaptive evolution before, during, or after the outbreak, indicating that ecological or immunological rather than virological factors were the key determinants of epidemic dynamics.

SUBMITTER: Schreiber MJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2668455 | biostudies-literature | 2009 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Genomic epidemiology of a dengue virus epidemic in urban Singapore.

Schreiber Mark J MJ Holmes Edward C EC Ong Swee Hoe SH Soh Harold S H HS Liu Wei W Tanner Lukas L Aw Pauline P K PP Tan Hwee Cheng HC Ng Lee Ching LC Leo Yee Sin YS Low Jenny G H JG Ong Adrian A Ooi Eng Eong EE Vasudevan Subhash G SG Hibberd Martin L ML

Journal of virology 20090211 9

Dengue is one of the most important emerging diseases of humans, with no preventative vaccines or antiviral cures available at present. Although one-third of the world's population live at risk of infection, little is known about the pattern and dynamics of dengue virus (DENV) within outbreak situations. By exploiting genomic data from an intensively studied major outbreak, we are able to describe the molecular epidemiology of DENV at a uniquely fine-scaled temporal and spatial resolution. Two D ...[more]

PMID: 19211734

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Project description:BackgroundDengue is one of the most important re-emerging viral diseases and the most common human arthropod-borne viral infection worldwide. Any of the four Dengue virus serotypes (DENV-1 to 4) can cause asymptomatic infections or clinical manifestations that range in severity from a mild, self-limited illness, to a severe disease characterized by a shock syndrome that can lead to death. Paraguay suffers periodic epidemic outbreaks of dengue since 1988 when the DENV-1 was introduced in the country. Epidemics caused by all four serotypes have been reported and the country. Although dengue is endemic in Paraguay, few studies have described the molecular epidemiology of DENV in the country, which is important to understand the local and global spread, as well as the evolution of this pathogen.MethodsThis was a cross-sectional study of a convenience sample. Suspected dengue patients of any age were recruited from the Emergency Laboratory of the Central Hospital of the Institute of Social Welfare, Asuncion, Paraguay, from February to June of 2011. A DENV antigen test was used to confirm the infection. The protein E gene sequences of isolated viruses were sequenced for phylogenetic analysis.ResultsDengue was confirmed in 55.1% of the participants (n = 98/178). The most frequent clinical findings were fever, headache, and myalgia. Identity analyses of the protein E gene sequence of 56 viruses isolated showed the circulation of DENV-1 (n = 45) and DENV-2 (n = 11) in the Asuncion metropolitan area in 2011. Molecular epidemiology analyses suggest that DENV-1 was introduced into Paraguay from Argentina, while the DENV-2 from Brazil, replacing previous virus lineages.ConclusionsWe have analyzed the molecular epidemiology of DENV-1 and DENV-2 isolated in Paraguay in 2011. We found strong evidence that DENV-1 was introduced into Paraguay from Argentina, while the DENV-2 from Brazil, replacing previous virus lineages. Molecular epidemiology studies are of great interest to analyze the dynamic of DENV spread, which are useful for early implementation of containment measures to reduce the risk of explosive epidemics caused by this virus.

Project description:BACKGROUND: Dengue infection spread in naive populations occurs in an explosive and widespread fashion primarily due to the absence of population herd immunity, the population dynamics and dispersal of Ae. aegypti, and the movement of individuals within the urban space. Knowledge on the relative contribution of such factors to the spatial dimension of dengue virus spread has been limited. In the present study we analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern of a large dengue virus-2 (DENV-2) outbreak that affected the Australian city of Cairns (north Queensland) in 2003, quantified the relationship between dengue transmission and distance to the epidemic's index case (IC), evaluated the effects of indoor residual spraying (IRS) on the odds of dengue infection, and generated recommendations for city-wide dengue surveillance and control. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We retrospectively analyzed data from 383 DENV-2 confirmed cases and 1,163 IRS applications performed during the 25-week epidemic period. Spatial (local k-function, angular wavelets) and space-time (Knox test) analyses quantified the intensity and directionality of clustering of dengue cases, whereas a semi-parametric Bayesian space-time regression assessed the impact of IRS and spatial autocorrelation in the odds of weekly dengue infection. About 63% of the cases clustered up to 800 m around the IC's house. Most cases were distributed in the NW-SE axis as a consequence of the spatial arrangement of blocks within the city and, possibly, the prevailing winds. Space-time analysis showed that DENV-2 infection spread rapidly, generating 18 clusters (comprising 65% of all cases), and that these clusters varied in extent as a function of their distance to the IC's residence. IRS applications had a significant protective effect in the further occurrence of dengue cases, but only when they reached coverage of 60% or more of the neighboring premises of a house. CONCLUSION: By applying sound statistical analysis to a very detailed dataset from one of the largest outbreaks that affected the city of Cairns in recent times, we not only described the spread of dengue virus with high detail but also quantified the spatio-temporal dimension of dengue virus transmission within this complex urban environment. In areas susceptible to non-periodic dengue epidemics, effective disease prevention and control would depend on the prompt response to introduced cases. We foresee that some of the results and recommendations derived from our study may also be applicable to other areas currently affected or potentially subject to dengue epidemics.

Project description:BackgroundDengue, a vector-borne infectious disease caused by the dengue virus, has spread through tropical and subtropical regions of the world. All four serotypes of dengue viruses are endemic in the equatorial city state of Singapore, and frequent localised outbreaks occur, sometimes leading to national epidemics. Vector control remains the primary and most effective measure for dengue control and prevention. The objective of this study is to develop a novel framework for producing a spatio-temporal dengue forecast at a neighbourhood level spatial resolution that can be routinely used by Singapore's government agencies for planning of vector control for best efficiency.MethodsThe forecasting algorithm uses a mixture of purely spatial, purely temporal and spatio-temporal data to derive dynamic risk maps for dengue transmission. LASSO-based regression was used for the prediction models and separate sub-models were constructed for each forecast window. Data were divided into training and testing sets for out-of-sample validation. Neighbourhoods were categorised as high or low risk based on the forecast number of cases within the cell. The predictive accuracy of the categorisation was measured.ResultsClose concordance between the projections and the eventual incidence of dengue were observed. The average Matthew's correlation coefficient for a classification of the upper risk decile (operational capacity) is similar to the predictive performance at the optimal 30% cut-off. The quality of the spatial predictive algorithm as a classifier shows areas under the curve at all forecast windows being above 0.75 and above 0.80 within the next month.ConclusionsSpatially resolved forecasts of geographically structured diseases like dengue can be obtained at a neighbourhood level in highly urban environments at a precision that is suitable for guiding control efforts. The same method can be adapted to other urban and even rural areas, with appropriate adjustment to the grid size and shape.

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Genomic epidemiology of a dengue virus epidemic in urban Singapore.

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Genomic epidemiology of a dengue virus epidemic in urban Singapore.

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