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Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing staff absenteeism during pandemic influenza.

ABSTRACT: We used a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) meta-population model, together with scenario, sensitivity, and simulation analyses, to determine stockpiling strategies for neuraminidase inhibitors that would minimize absenteeism among healthcare workers. A pandemic with a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.5 resulted in peak absenteeism of 10%. Treatment decreased peak absenteeism to 8%, while 8 weeks' prophylaxis reduced it to 2%. For pandemics with higher R0, peak absenteeism exceeded 20% occasionally and 6 weeks' prophylaxis reduced peak absenteeism by 75%. Insufficient duration of prophylaxis increased peak absenteeism compared with treatment only. Earlier pandemic detection and initiation of prophylaxis may render shorter prophylaxis durations ineffective. Eight weeks' prophylaxis substantially reduced peak absenteeism under a broad range of assumptions for severe pandemics (peak absenteeism > 10%). Small investments in treatment and prophylaxis, if adequate and timely, can reduce absenteeism among essential staff.

SUBMITTER: Lee VJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2725890 | biostudies-literature | 2007 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing staff absenteeism during pandemic influenza.

Lee Vernon J VJ Chen Mark I MI

Emerging infectious diseases 20070301 3

We used a deterministic SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-removed) meta-population model, together with scenario, sensitivity, and simulation analyses, to determine stockpiling strategies for neuraminidase inhibitors that would minimize absenteeism among healthcare workers. A pandemic with a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.5 resulted in peak absenteeism of 10%. Treatment decreased peak absenteeism to 8%, while 8 weeks' prophylaxis reduced it to 2%. For pandemics with higher R0, peak absen ...[more]

PMID: 17552099

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Neuraminidase inhibitors (NAIs) effectively treat influenza. The clinical effectiveness of four NAIs (oseltamivir, zanamivir, laninamivir, and peramivir) was evaluated against influenza A/H1N1pdm09, A/H3N2, and B viruses. Additionally, fever duration in patients infected with oseltamivir-resistant influenza A/H1N1pdm09 with the H275Y mutation was evaluated. METHODS:Patients aged <20 years who visited outpatient clinics in Japan with influenza-like illnesses were enrolled during 4 influenza seasons from 2012/2013 to 2015/2016. After obtaining informed consent, patients who tested positive for influenza with rapid tests received one of the four NAIs. Patients recorded their body temperature daily for 8 days from the first visit. The influenza strain was identified using real-time polymerase chain reaction. Univariate and multivariable analyses were used to evaluate factors influencing fever duration. In children aged ?5 years treated with oseltamivir, fever duration in oseltamivir-resistant A/H1N1pdm09-infected patients was compared to that in oseltamivir-sensitive A/H1N1pdm09-infected patients. RESULTS:Of the 1,368 patients analyzed, 297 (21.7%), 683 (49.9%), and 388 (28.4%) were infected with influenza A/H1N1pdm09, A/H3N2, and B, respectively. In multivariable analysis factors associated with significantly prolonged fever duration included: treatment with laninamivir (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.78, p = 0.006, compared to oseltamivir), influenza B (HR: 0.58, p<0.001, compared to influenza A/H1N1pdm09), and a higher body temperature at the clinic visit (HR: 0.87 per degree Celsius, p<0.001). Increasing age was associated with a significantly shorter duration of fever (HR: 1.31 for 6-9 years old, p<0.001; and HR: 1.65 for 10-19 years old, p<0.001, respectively, compared to 0-5 years old). Following treatment with oseltamivir, fever duration was significantly longer for oseltamivir-resistant A/H1N1pdm09-infected patients (n = 5) than for oseltamivir-sensitive A/H1N1pdm09 infected patients (n = 111) (mean, 89 versus 40 hours, p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Our results revealed characteristic information on the effectiveness of the four NAIs and also on oseltamivir-resistant viruses that may affect patients' clinical care.

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Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing staff absenteeism during pandemic influenza.

Publications

Effectiveness of neuraminidase inhibitors for preventing staff absenteeism during pandemic influenza.

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