Dataset Information

Operative mortality in colorectal cancer: prospective national study.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE: To develop a mathematical model that will predict the probability of death after surgery for colorectal cancer. DESIGN: Descriptive study using routinely collected clinical data. DATA SOURCE: The database of the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI), encompassing 8077 patients with a new diagnosis of colorectal cancer in 73 hospitals during a 12 month period. STATISTICAL ANALYSIS: A three level hierarchical logistic regression model was used to identify independent predictors of operative mortality. The model was developed on 60% of the patient population and its validity tested on the remaining 40%. RESULTS: Overall postoperative mortality was 7.5% (95% confidence interval 6.9% to 8.1%). Independent predictors of death were age, American Society of Anesthesiology (ASA) grade, Dukes's stage, urgency of the operation, and cancer excision. When tested the predictive model showed good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = (0.775) and calibration (comparison of observed with expected mortality across different procedures; Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic = 6.34, 8 df, P = 0.610). CONCLUSIONS: Clinicians can predict postoperative death by using a simple numerical table derived from the statistical model of the ACPGBI. The model can be used in everyday practice for preoperative counselling of patients and their carers as a part of multidisciplinary care. It may also be used to compare the outcomes between multidisciplinary teams for colorectal cancer.

SUBMITTER: Tekkis PP

PROVIDER: S-EPMC274053 | biostudies-literature | 2003 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Operative mortality in colorectal cancer: prospective national study.

Tekkis Paris P PP Poloniecki Jan D JD Thompson Michael R MR Stamatakis Jeffrey D JD

BMJ (Clinical research ed.) 20031101 7425

<h4>Objective</h4>To develop a mathematical model that will predict the probability of death after surgery for colorectal cancer.<h4>Design</h4>Descriptive study using routinely collected clinical data.<h4>Data source</h4>The database of the Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland (ACPGBI), encompassing 8077 patients with a new diagnosis of colorectal cancer in 73 hospitals during a 12 month period.<h4>Statistical analysis</h4>A three level hierarchical logistic regression mod ...[more]

PMID: 14630754

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Project description:BackgroundDue to their known variation by geography and economic development, we aimed to evaluate the incidence and mortality of colorectal cancer (CRC) in China over the past decades and identify factors associated with CRC among the Chinese population to provide targeted information on disease prevention.MethodsWe conducted a systemic review and meta-analysis of epidemiolocal studies on the incidence, mortality, and associated factors of CRC among the Chinese population, extracting and synthesising data from eligible studies retrieved from seven global and Chinese databases. We pooled age-standardised incidence rates (ASIRs) and mortality rates (ASMRs) for each province, subregion, and the whole of China, and applied a joinpoint regression model and annual per cent changes (APCs) to estimate the trends of CRC incidence and mortality. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses to assess the effect estimates of identified associated risk factors.ResultsWe included 493 articles; 271 provided data on CRC incidence or mortality, and 222 on associated risk factors. Overall, the ASIR of CRC in China increased from 2.75 to 19.39 (per 100 000 person-years) between 1972 and 2019 with a slowed-down growth rate (APC1 = 5.75, APC2 = 0.42), while the ASMR of CRC decreased from 12.00 to 7.95 (per 100 000 person-years) between 1974 and 2020 with a slight downward trend (APC = -0.89). We analysed 62 risk factors with synthesized data; 16 belonging to the categories of anthropometrics factors, lifestyle factors, dietary factors, personal histories and mental health conditions were graded to be associated with CRC risk among the Chinese population in the meta-analysis limited to the high-quality studies.ConclusionsWe found substantial variation of CRC burden across regions and provinces of China and identified several associated risk factors for CRC, which could help to guide the formulation of targeted disease prevention and control strategies.RegistrationPROSPERO: CRD42022346558.

Project description:BackgroundAnastomotic leakage is a serious surgical complication in rectal cancer; however, effective evaluation methods for predicting anastomotic leakage individual risk in patients are not currently available. This study aimed to develop a method to evaluate the risk of leakage during surgery.MethodsThe 163 patients with rectal cancer, who had undergone anterior resection and low-ligation procedures for Doppler sonographic hemodynamic measurement from April 2011 to January 2015 in Peking University Cancer Hospital, were prospectively recruited. A predictive model was constructed based on the associations between anastomotic leakage and alterations in the anastomotic blood supply in the patients, using both univariate and multivariate statistical analyses, as well as diagnostic methodology evaluation, including Chi-square test, logistic regression model, and receiver operating characteristic curve.ResultsThe overall anastomotic leakage incidence was 9.2% (15/163). Doppler hemodynamic parameters whose reduction was significantly associated with anastomotic leakage were peak systolic velocity, pulsatility index, and resistance index. The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve of residual rates of peak systolic velocity, pulsatility index, and resistance index in predicting anastomotic leakage were 0.703 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.552-0.854), 0.729 (95% CI: 0.579-0.879), and 0.689 (95% CI: 0.522-0.856), respectively. The predictive model revealed that the patients with severely reduced blood-flow signal exhibited a significantly higher incidence rate of anastomotic leakage than those with sufficient blood supply (19.6% vs. 3.7%, P = 0.003), particularly the patients with low rectal cancer (25.9% vs. 3.9%, P = 0.007) and those receiving neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (32.1% vs. 3.7%, P = 0.001), independent of prophylactic ileostoma. Multivariate analysis revealed that insufficient blood supply of the anastomotic bowel was an independent risk factor for anastomotic leakage (odds ratio: 10.37, 95% CI: 2.703-42.735, P = 0.001).ConclusionBased on this explorative study, Doppler sonographic hemodynamic measurement of the anastomotic bowel presented potential value in predicting anastomotic leakage.

Project description:BackgroundVenous thromboembolism (VTE) is the most common preventable cause of 30-day post-operative mortality, with many events occurring after hospital discharge. High-level evidence supports post-discharge VTE chemoprophylaxis following abdominal/pelvic cancer resection; however, some studies support a more tailored approach. Our objectives were to (1) identify risk factors associated with post-discharge VTE in a large cohort of patients undergoing colorectal cancer resection and (2) develop a post-discharge VTE risk calculator.MethodsPatients who underwent colorectal cancer resection from 2012 to 2016 were identified from ACS NSQIP colectomy and proctectomy procedure-targeted modules. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with post-discharge VTE. Incorporating pre-operative, intra-operative, and post-operative variables, a post-discharge VTE risk calculator was constructed and validated.ResultsOf 51,139 patients, 387 (0.76%) developed post-discharge VTE. Pre-operative factors associated with post-discharge VTE included BMI (e.g., morbidly obese OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.65-3.12 vs. normal BMI), and thrombocytosis (OR 1.41, 95% CI 1.03-1.92). Intra-operative factors included operative time (4-6 h OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.12-2.17; > 6 h, OR 1.85, 95% CI 1.21-2.84, vs. < 2 h), and type of operation (e.g., open partial colectomy OR 1.67, 95% CI 1.30-2.16 vs. laparoscopic partial colectomy). Post-operative factors included anastomotic leak (OR 2.05, 95% CI 1.31-3.21) and post-operative ileus (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.07-1.79). Using the risk calculator, the predicted probability of post-discharge VTE ranged from 0.04 to 10.29%. On a 10-fold cross validation, the calculator's mean C-Statistic was 0.65.ConclusionsPatient-specific factors are associated with varying rates of post-discharge VTE. We present the first post-discharge VTE risk calculator designed for use at the time of discharge following colorectal cancer resection.

Dataset Information

Operative mortality in colorectal cancer: prospective national study.

Publications

Operative mortality in colorectal cancer: prospective national study.

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