Dataset Information

Estimating the duration of pertussis immunity using epidemiological signatures.

ABSTRACT: Case notifications of pertussis have shown an increase in a number of countries with high rates of routine pediatric immunization. This has led to significant public health concerns over a possible pertussis re-emergence. A leading proposed explanation for the observed increase in incidence is the loss of immunity to pertussis, which is known to occur after both natural infection and vaccination. Little is known, however, about the typical duration of immunity and its epidemiological implications. Here, we analyze a simple mathematical model, exploring specifically the inter-epidemic period and fade-out frequency. These predictions are then contrasted with detailed incidence data for England and Wales. We find model output to be most sensitive to assumptions concerning naturally acquired immunity, which allows us to estimate the average duration of immunity. Our results support a period of natural immunity that is, on average, long-lasting (at least 30 years) but inherently variable.

SUBMITTER: Wearing HJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2763266 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Estimating the duration of pertussis immunity using epidemiological signatures.

Wearing Helen J HJ Rohani Pejman P

PLoS pathogens 20091030 10

Case notifications of pertussis have shown an increase in a number of countries with high rates of routine pediatric immunization. This has led to significant public health concerns over a possible pertussis re-emergence. A leading proposed explanation for the observed increase in incidence is the loss of immunity to pertussis, which is known to occur after both natural infection and vaccination. Little is known, however, about the typical duration of immunity and its epidemiological implication ...[more]

PMID: 19876392

Similar Datasets

Project description:ImportanceThe United States has experienced a nationwide resurgence of pertussis since the mid-1970s, despite high estimated vaccine coverage. Short-lived immunity induced by diphtheria-tetanus-acellular pertussis (DTaP) vaccines in young children is widely believed to be responsible for this growing burden, but the duration of protection conferred by DTaP vaccines remains incompletely quantified.ObjectiveTo assess the duration of immunity and the effectiveness of DTaP vaccines in US children.Design, setting, and participantsA mathematical, age-structured model of pertussis transmission, previously validated empirically on incidence data in Massachusetts, was used in this simulation study to assess the duration of DTaP immunity most consistent with the empirical values of the relative increase in the odds of acquiring pertussis from recent epidemiologic studies in the United States. The study included 5 simulated cohorts of children born between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2005, followed up between the ages of 5 and 9 years (study period, January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2014). Statistical analysis was performed from May 1 to December 1, 2017.InterventionsVaccination with DTaP according to the US immunization schedule, with a range of assumptions regarding the degree of waning immunity.Main outcomes and measuresVaccine effectiveness and relative change in the odds of acquiring pertussis (odds ratio) in children aged 5 to 9 years, duration of DTaP immunity, and vaccine population-level impact.ResultsThis study found a marked association between the degree of waning immunity, vaccine effectiveness, and the odds ratio. Counterintuitively, the odds ratio was positively associated with vaccine effectiveness, as a consequence of nonlinear, age-assortative transmission dynamics. Based on the empirical odds ratios (1.33; 95% CI, 1.23-1.43), it was estimated that vaccine effectiveness exceeded 75% in children aged 5 to 9 years and that more than 65% of children remained immune to pertussis 5 years after the last DTaP dose.Conclusions and relevanceThe results of this study suggest that temporal trends in the odds of acquiring pertussis are an unreliable measure of the durability of vaccine-induced protection. They further demonstrate that DTaP vaccines confer imperfect, but long-lived protection. Control strategies should be based on the best available estimates of vaccine properties and the age structure of the transmission network.

Project description:BackgroundIn recent years, the resurgence of pertussis has posed a public health challenge in many countries. This study aimed to evaluate the immunity levels against pertussis among populations of different ages in China.MethodsWe conducted a cross-sectional serological survey in Zhejiang Province, China in 2020. Serum IgG antibodies against pertussis toxin (anti-PT), filamentous hemagglutinin (anti-FHA), and pertactin (anti-PRN) were quantitatively measured. The geometric mean concentration (GMC) of three antibodies was calculated. An anti-PT level < 5 IU/mL was considered undetectable, ≥20 IU/mL as seropositive and ≥80 IU/mL as an indicator of recent infection. Mathematical models were fitted for anti-PT concentrations over time in children after four doses of the pertussis vaccination.ResultsA total of 4459 participants aged 0-59 years were included in the analyses. The overall positivity rate of anti-PT was 29.80% with the highest (81.44%) rate in the 1-2 years old and the lowest (4.72%) in 10-14 years old. The GMCs of anti-PT, anti-FHA and anti-PRN for the whole participants were 9.67 (95%CI: 9.25-10.10),18.93 (18.24-19.67), and 8.99 (8.61-9.38) IU/mL, respectively. Over 50% of subjects aged ≥ 7 years had undetectable anti-PT IgG antibodies (<5IU/mL). The proportions of the populations with anti-PT IgG ≥ 80 IU/mL were approximately 0.9%, 0.3% and 1.1% among the 10-14, 15-29, and 40-59 years old groups, respectively. The power regression equation of the attenuation model after last dose of pertussis vaccine was y = 41.088x-1.238 (R2 = 0.935, p < 0.001). The fitted anti-PT concentrations was only 5.60 IU/mL at 5 years following the last vaccination dose.ConclusionThe prevalence of pertussis decreased during the study period in the COVID-19 pandemic; however, there was still a certain proportion of adolescents and adults with evidence of recent infection. The decline in antibody levels after pertussis vaccination was observed, and booster doses are in urgent need in China.

Dataset Information

Estimating the duration of pertussis immunity using epidemiological signatures.

Publications

Estimating the duration of pertussis immunity using epidemiological signatures.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets