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Risk stratification in critical limb ischemia: derivation and validation of a model to predict amputation-free survival using multicenter surgical outcomes data.

ABSTRACT: Patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI) are a heterogeneous population with respect to risk for mortality and limb loss, complicating clinical decision-making. Endovascular options, compared with bypass, offer a tradeoff between reduced procedural risk and inferior durability. Risk stratified data predictive of amputation-free survival (AFS) may improve clinical decision making and allow for better assessment of new technology in the CLI population.This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from patients who underwent infrainguinal vein bypass surgery for CLI. Two datasets were used: the PREVENT III randomized trial (n = 1404) and a multicenter registry (n = 716) from three distinct vascular centers (two academic, one community-based). The PREVENT III cohort was randomly assigned to a derivation set (n = 953) and to a validation set (n = 451). The primary endpoint was AFS. Predictors of AFS identified on univariate screen (inclusion threshold, P < .20) were included in a stepwise selection Cox model. The resulting five significant predictors were assigned an integer score to stratify patients into three risk groups. The prediction rule was internally validated in the PREVENT III validation set and externally validated in the multicenter cohort.The estimated 1-year AFS in the derivation, internal validation, and external validation sets were 76.3%, 72.5%, and 77.0%, respectively. In the derivation set, dialysis (hazard ratio [HR] 2.81, P < .0001), tissue loss (HR 2.22, P =.0004), age >or=75 (HR 1.64, P = .001), hematocrit or=8 [8.8% of cohort]). Stratification of the patients, in each dataset, according to risk category yielded three significantly different Kaplan-Meier estimates for 1-year AFS (86%, 73%, and 45% for low, medium, and high risk groups, respectively). For a given risk category, the AFS estimate was consistent between the derivation and validation sets.Among patients selected to undergo surgical bypass for infrainguinal disease, this parsimonious risk stratification model reliably identified a category of CLI patients with a >50% chance of death or major amputation at 1 year. Calculation of a "PIII risk score" may be useful for surgical decision making and for clinical trial designs in the CLI population.

SUBMITTER: Schanzer A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2765219 | biostudies-literature | 2008 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk stratification in critical limb ischemia: derivation and validation of a model to predict amputation-free survival using multicenter surgical outcomes data.

Schanzer Andres A Mega Jessica J Meadows Judith J Samson Russell H RH Bandyk Dennis F DF Conte Michael S MS

Journal of vascular surgery 20081201 6

<h4>Background</h4>Patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI) are a heterogeneous population with respect to risk for mortality and limb loss, complicating clinical decision-making. Endovascular options, compared with bypass, offer a tradeoff between reduced procedural risk and inferior durability. Risk stratified data predictive of amputation-free survival (AFS) may improve clinical decision making and allow for better assessment of new technology in the CLI population.<h4>Methods</h4>This was ...[more]

PMID: 19118735

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Project description:ObjectiveOur objective was to analyze periprocedural and 1-year outcomes of peripheral endovascular intervention (PVI) for critical limb ischemia (CLI).MethodsWe reviewed 1244 patients undergoing 1414 PVIs for CLI (rest pain, 29%; tissue loss, 71%) within the Vascular Study Group of New England (VSGNE) from January 2010 to December 2011. Overall survival (OS), amputation-free survival (AFS), and freedom from major amputation at 1 year were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).ResultsThe number of arteries treated during each procedure were 1 (49%), 2 (35%), 3 (12%), and ≥4 (5%). Target arterial segments and TransAtlantic Inter-Society Consensus classifications were aortoiliac, 27% (A, 48%; B, 28%; C, 12%; and D, 12%); femoral-popliteal, 48% (A, 29%; B, 34%; C, 20%; and D, 17%); and infrapopliteal, 25% (A, 17%; B, 14%; C, 25%; D, 44%). Technical success was 92%. Complications included access site hematoma (5.0%), occlusion (0.3%), and distal embolization (2.4%). Mortality and major amputation rates were 2.8% and 2.2% at 30 days, respectively. Overall percutaneous or open reintervention rate was 8.0% during the first year. At 1-year, OS, AFS, and freedom from major amputation were 87%, 87%, and 94% for patients with rest pain and 80%, 71%, and 81% for patients with tissue loss. Independent predictors of reduced 1-year OS (C index = .74) included dialysis (HR, 3.8; 95% CI, 2.8-5.1; P < .01), emergency procedure (HR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.0-6.2; P = .05), age >80 years (HR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.7-2.8; P < .01), not living at home preoperatively (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.4-2.8; P < .01), creatinine >1.8 mg/dL (HR, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.3-2.8; P < .01), congestive heart failure (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.3-2.2; P < .01), and chronic β-blocker use (HR, 1.4; 95% CI, 1.0-1.9; P = .03), whereas independent preoperative ambulation (HR, 0.7; 95% CI, 0.6-0.9; P = .014) was protective. Independent predictors of major amputation (C index = .69) at 1 year included dialysis (HR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.6-4.5; P < .01), tissue loss (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.7; P = .02), prior major contralateral amputation (HR, 2.0; 95% CI, 1.1-3.5; P = .02), non-Caucasian race (HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.0-2.9; P = .045), and male gender (HR, 1.6; 95% CI, 1.1-2.6; P = .03), whereas smoking (HR, .60; 95% CI, 0.4-1.0; P = .042) was protective.ConclusionsSurvival and major amputation after PVI for CLI are associated with different patient characteristics. Dialysis dependence is a common predictor that portends especially poor outcomes. These data may facilitate efforts to improve patient selection and, after further validation, enable risk-adjusted outcome reporting for CLI patients undergoing PVI.

Project description:BackgroundCritical limb ischemia remains a difficult disease to treat, with limited level one data. The BEST-CLI trial (Best Endovascular vs Best Open Surgical Therapy in Patients with Critical Limb Ischemia) is attempting to answer whether initial treatment with open surgical bypass or endovascular therapy improves outcomes, although it remains in enrollment. This study aims to compare amputation-free survival and reintervention rates in patients treated with initial open surgical bypass or endovascular intervention for ischemic ulcers of the lower extremities.Methods and resultsUsing California nonfederal hospital data linked to statewide death data, all patients with lower extremity ulcers and a diagnosis of peripheral artery disease who underwent a revascularization procedure from 2005 to 2013 were identified. Propensity scores were formulated from baseline patient characteristics. Inverse probability weighting was used with Kaplan-Meier analysis to determine amputation-free survival and time to reintervention for open versus endovascular treatment. Mixed-effects Cox proportional hazards modeling was used to adjust for patient ability to manage their disease and hospital revascularization volume. A total of 16 800 patients were identified. Open surgical bypass was the initial treatment in 5970 (36%) while 10 830 (64%) underwent endovascular interventions. Patients in the endovascular group were slightly younger compared with the open group (70 versus 71 years, ±12 years; P<0.001). Endovascular-first patients were more likely to have comorbid renal failure (36% versus 24%), coronary artery disease (34% versus 32%), congestive heart failure (19% versus 15%), and diabetes mellitus (65% versus 58%; all P values <0.05). After inverse propensity weighting as well as adjustment for patient ability to manage their disease and hospital revascularization experience, open surgery first was associated with a worse amputation-free survival (hazard ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.13-1.20) with no difference in mortality (hazard ratio, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.89-1.11). Endovascular first was associated with higher rates of reintervention (hazard ratio, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.14-1.23).ConclusionsPatients with critical limb ischemia have multiple comorbidities, and initial surgical bypass is associated with poorer amputation-free survival compared with an endovascular-first approach, perhaps due to increased severity of wounds at the time of presentation.

Project description:The purpose of this Phase I open label nonrandomized trial was to assess the safety and efficacy of autologous bone marrow mononuclear cell (ABMNC) therapy in promoting amputation-free survival (AFS) in patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI).Between September 2005 and March 2009, 29 patients (30 limbs), with a median age of 66 years (range, 23-84 years; 14 male, 15 female) with CLI were enrolled. Twenty-one limbs presented with rest pain (RP), six with RP and ulceration, and three with ulcer only. All patients were not candidates for surgical bypass due to absence of a patent artery below the knee and/or endovascular approaches to improving perfusion was not possible as determined by an independent vascular surgeon. Patients were treated with an average dose of 1.7 ± 0.7 × 10(9) ABMNC injected intramuscularly in the index limb distal to the anterior tibial tuberosity. The primary safety end point was accumulation of serious adverse events, and the primary efficacy end point was AFS at 1 year. Secondary end points at 12 weeks posttreatment were changes in first toe pressure (FTP), toe-brachial index (TBI), ankle-brachial index (ABI), and transcutaneous oxygen measurements (TcPO(2)). Perfusion of the index limb was measured with positron emission tomography-computed tomography (PET-CT) with intra-arterial infusion of H(2)O(15). RP, using a 10-cm visual analogue scale, quality of life using the VascuQuol questionnaire, and ulcer healing were assessed at each follow-up interval. Subpopulations of endothelial progenitor cells were quantified prior to ABMNC administration using immunocytochemistry and fluorescent-activated cell sorting.There were two serious adverse events; however, there were no procedure-related deaths. Amputation-free survival at 1 year was 86.3%. There was a significant increase in FTP (10.2 ± 6.2 mm Hg; P = .02) and TBI (0.10 ± 0.05;P = .02) and a trend in improvement in ABI (0.08 ± 0.04; P = .73). Perfusion index by PET-CT H(2)O(15) increased by 19.3 ± 3.1, and RP decreased significantly by 2.2 ± 0.6 cm (P = .02). The VascuQol questionnaire demonstrated significant improvement in quality of life, and three of nine ulcers (33%) healed completely. KDR(+) but not CD34(+) or CD133(+) subpopulations of ABMNC were associated with improvement in limb perfusion.This Phase I study has demonstrated safety, and the AFS rates suggest efficacy of ABMNC in promoting limb salvage in "no option" CLI. Based on these results, we plan to test the concept that ABMNCs improve AFS at 1 year in a Phase III randomized, double-blinded, multicenter trial.

Dataset Information

Risk stratification in critical limb ischemia: derivation and validation of a model to predict amputation-free survival using multicenter surgical outcomes data.

Publications

Risk stratification in critical limb ischemia: derivation and validation of a model to predict amputation-free survival using multicenter surgical outcomes data.

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