Dataset Information

The risks of malaria infection in Kenya in 2009.

ABSTRACT:

Background

To design an effective strategy for the control of malaria requires a map of infection and disease risks to select appropriate suites of interventions. Advances in model based geo-statistics and malaria parasite prevalence data assemblies provide unique opportunities to redefine national Plasmodium falciparum risk distributions. Here we present a new map of malaria risk for Kenya in 2009.

Methods

Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate data were assembled from cross-sectional community based surveys undertaken from 1975 to 2009. Details recorded for each survey included the month and year of the survey, sample size, positivity and the age ranges of sampled population. Data were corrected to a standard age-range of two to less than 10 years (PfPR2-10) and each survey location was geo-positioned using national and on-line digital settlement maps. Ecological and climate covariates were matched to each PfPR2-10 survey location and examined separately and in combination for relationships to PfPR2-10. Significant covariates were then included in a Bayesian geostatistical spatial-temporal framework to predict continuous and categorical maps of mean PfPR2-10 at a 1 x 1 km resolution across Kenya for the year 2009. Model hold-out data were used to test the predictive accuracy of the mapped surfaces and distributions of the posterior uncertainty were mapped.

Results

A total of 2,682 estimates of PfPR2-10 from surveys undertaken at 2,095 sites between 1975 and 2009 were selected for inclusion in the geo-statistical modeling. The covariates selected for prediction were urbanization; maximum temperature; precipitation; enhanced vegetation index; and distance to main water bodies. The final Bayesian geo-statistical model had a high predictive accuracy with mean error of -0.15% PfPR2-10; mean absolute error of 0.38% PfPR2-10; and linear correlation between observed and predicted PfPR2-10 of 0.81. The majority of Kenya's 2009 population (35.2 million, 86.3%) reside in areas where predicted PfPR2-10 is less than 5%; conversely in 2009 only 4.3 million people (10.6%) lived in areas where PfPR2-10 was predicted to be > or =40% and were largely located around the shores of Lake Victoria.

Conclusion

Model based geo-statistical methods can be used to interpolate malaria risks in Kenya with precision and our model shows that the majority of Kenyans live in areas of very low P. falciparum risk. As malaria interventions go to scale effectively tracking epidemiological changes of risk demands a rigorous effort to document infection prevalence in time and space to remodel risks and redefine intervention priorities over the next 10-15 years.

SUBMITTER: Noor AM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2783030 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

The risks of malaria infection in Kenya in 2009.

Noor Abdisalan M AM Gething Peter W PW Alegana Victor A VA Patil Anand P AP Hay Simon I SI Muchiri Eric E Juma Elizabeth E Snow Robert W RW

BMC infectious diseases 20091120

<h4>Background</h4>To design an effective strategy for the control of malaria requires a map of infection and disease risks to select appropriate suites of interventions. Advances in model based geo-statistics and malaria parasite prevalence data assemblies provide unique opportunities to redefine national Plasmodium falciparum risk distributions. Here we present a new map of malaria risk for Kenya in 2009.<h4>Methods</h4>Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate data were assembled from cross-section ...[more]

PMID: 19930552

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Project description:BackgroundThe ABO blood groups consist of A, B, and H carbohydrate antigens, which regulate protein activities during malaria infection in humans. Understanding the interplay between the malaria parasite and blood group antigens is essential in understanding new interventions to reduce the global burden of malaria. This study assessed the burden of malaria infection among individuals with varying blood groups seeking treatment at selected hospitals in Kenya.MethodsA total of 366 samples from an ongoing malaria surveillance study were diagnosed for malaria by microscopy and further typed for blood group using ABO blood grouping. Age and sex were recorded in a data sheet, and analysed using R software version 4. Groups' proportions (blood group, malaria infection, age and sex) were compared using Pearson's Chi-square and Fischer exact tests. Wilcoxon and Kruskal-Wallis tests were performed and P-value < 0.05 was considered significant after Bonferroni correction for multiple comparisons. To understand the effect of each blood group on parasitaemia, multivariate logistic regression was used to model ABO blood group in relation to parasitaemia.ResultsOf the 366 samples analysed, 312 were malaria positive, mean age was 9.83 years (< 5 years n = 152 (48.41%), 6 to 17 years n = 101 (32.16%) and > 18 years n = 61 (19.43%)). Malaria prevalence was higher among females than males, 54.46% and 45.54%, respectively. Kisumu enrolled the highest number 109 (35%)) of malaria cases, Kombewa 108 (35%), Malindi 32 (10%), Kisii 28 (9%), Marigat 23 (7%), and Kericho 12 (4%). Blood group O+ was the most prevalent among the enrolled individuals (46.50%), A+ (27.71%), B+ (21.02%) and AB+ (4.78%) respectively. Compared to blood group O+, blood group B+ individuals were (14%) were more likely to habour Plasmodium falciparum infection as opposed to A+ and AB+ individuals, that were 7% and 20%, respectively,. Those living in malaria-endemic zones presented with higher parasite densities compared to those living in malaria-epidemic (p = 0.0061). Individuals bearing B + blood group are more likely to habour high parasitaemia compared to O + blood group bearers (OR = 4.47, CI = 1.53-13.05, p = 0.006).ConclusionIndividuals of blood group B harbour high parasitaemia compared with the blood group O, Additionally, blood group A and B present with symptoms at lower parasitaemia than blood group O. Regardles of malaria transmission zones, individuals from endemic zones showed up with high parasitaemia and among them were more individuals of blood groups A and B than individuals of blood group O. Implying that these individuals were more at risk and require additional attention and effective case management.

Project description:BackgroundMonitoring local malaria transmission intensity is essential for planning evidence-based control strategies and evaluating their impact over time. Anti-malarial antibodies provide information on cumulative exposure and have proven useful, in areas where transmission has dropped to low sustained levels, for retrospectively reconstructing the timing and magnitude of transmission reduction. It is unclear whether serological markers are also informative in high transmission settings, where interventions may reduce transmission, but to a level where considerable exposure continues.MethodsThis study was conducted through ongoing KEMRI and CDC collaboration. Asembo, in Western Kenya, is an area where intense malaria transmission was drastically reduced during a 1997-1999 community-randomized, controlled insecticide-treated net (ITN) trial. Two approaches were taken to reconstruct malaria transmission history during the period from 1994 to 2009. First, point measurements were calculated for seroprevalence, mean antibody titre, and seroconversion rate (SCR) against three Plasmodium falciparum antigens (AMA-1, MSP-119, and CSP) at five time points for comparison against traditional malaria indices (parasite prevalence and entomological inoculation rate). Second, within individual post-ITN years, age-stratified seroprevalence data were analysed retrospectively for an abrupt drop in SCR by fitting alternative reversible catalytic conversion models that allowed for change in SCR.ResultsGenerally, point measurements of seroprevalence, antibody titres and SCR produced consistent patterns indicating that a gradual but substantial drop in malaria transmission (46-70%) occurred from 1994 to 2007, followed by a marginal increase beginning in 2008 or 2009. In particular, proportionate changes in seroprevalence and SCR point estimates (relative to 1994 baseline values) for AMA-1 and CSP, but not MSP-119, correlated closely with trends in parasite prevalence throughout the entire 15-year study period. However, retrospective analyses using datasets from 2007, 2008 and 2009 failed to detect any abrupt drop in transmission coinciding with the timing of the 1997-1999 ITN trial.ConclusionsIn this highly endemic area, serological markers were useful for generating accurate point estimates of malaria transmission intensity, but not for retrospective analysis of historical changes. Further investigation, including exploration of different malaria antigens and/or alternative models of population seroconversion, may yield serological tools that are more informative in high transmission settings.

Project description:BackgroundMalaria transmission has recently fallen in many parts of Africa, but systematic descriptions of infection and disease across all age groups are rare. Here, an epidemiological investigation of parasite prevalence, the incidence of fevers associated with infection, severe hospitalized disease and mortality among children older than 6 months and adults on the Kenyan coast is presented.MethodsA prospective fever surveillance was undertaken at 6 out-patients (OPD) health-facilities between March 2018 and February 2019. Four community-based, cross sectional surveys of fever history and infection prevalence were completed among randomly selected homestead members from the same communities. Paediatric and adult malaria at Kilifi county hospital was obtained for the 12 months period. Rapid Diagnostic Tests (CareStart™ RDT) to detect HRP2-specific to Plasmodium falciparum was used in the community and the OPD, and microscopy in the hospital. Crude and age-specific incidence rates were computed using Poisson regression.ResultsParasite prevalence gradually increased from childhood, reaching 12% by 9 years of age then declining through adolescence into adulthood. The incidence rate of RDT positivity in the OPD followed a similar trend to that of infection prevalence in the community. The incidence of hospitalized malaria from the same community was concentrated among children aged 6 months to 4 years (i.e. 64% and 70% of all hospitalized and severe malaria during the 12 months of surveillance, respectively). Only 3.7% (12/316) of deaths were directly attributable to malaria. Malaria mortality was highest among children aged 6 months-4 years at 0.57 per 1000 person-years (95% CI 0.2, 1.2). Severe malaria and death from malaria was negligible above 15 years of age.ConclusionUnder conditions of low transmission intensity, immunity to disease and the fatal consequences of infection appear to continue to be acquired in childhood and faster than anti-parasitic immunity. There was no evidence of an emerging significant burden of severe malaria or malaria mortality among adults. This is contrary to current modelled approaches to disease burden estimation in Africa and has important implications for the targeting of infection prevention strategies based on chemoprevention or vector control.

Project description:BackgroundIn Plasmodium falciparum infection, clinical conditions such as anaemia, thrombocytopenia and leukocytosis are common. Mutation in haemoglobin sub-unit beta gene (HBB) may be a genetic factor responsible for these haematological changes during infection. However, the contributions of the carriage of different HBB genotypes on these changes remain largely unknown.MethodologyIn this cross-sectional study, we evaluated haematological abnormalities in P. falciparum-infected children (n = 217, aged 1-192 months) with different haemoglobin sub-unit beta (HBB) genotypes (HbAA, HbAS and HbSS). Children with acute febrile conditions were recruited at Jaramogi Oginga Odinga Teaching and Referral Hospital at the outpatient clinic. Haematological parameters were determined using Beckman Coulter counter ACTdiff2™ while HBB genotyping was done using TaqMan® SNP genotyping assay. Chi-square (χ2) was used to determine differences between proportions. Differences in haematological parameters were compared across groups using Kruskal Wallis test and between groups using Mann Whitney U test. Partial correlation test was used to determine correlation between haematological parameters and sickle cell genotypes while controlling for age and sex.ResultsHaemoglobin (Hb), [median (IQR); 7.3 (1.3), P = 0.001], haematocrit (HCT), [median (IQR); 26.4 (4.4), P = 0.009], red blood cells (RBC), [median (IQR); 3.2 (1.7), P = 0.048] were markedly reduced in HbSS, however, red cell distribution with (RDW) [median (IQR); 14.9 (3.3), P = 0.030] was increased in malaria infected children with HbSS. Severe anaemia was highest in HbSS (23.1%) followed by HbAA (8.6%) and HbAS (7.1%). There were no differences in platelet count (P = 0.399) hence no severe thrombocytopeania across the genotypes. Leukocytosis was highest in HbSS (69.2%), 42% in HbAS and 31% in HbAA. The RBC, HCT and Hb had negative correlation with RDW in HbSS in malarial-infected children (r = - 0.725, P = 0.008), (r = - 0.718, P = 0.009) and (r = - 0.792, P = 0.002), respectively.ConclusionOur study reveals that anaemia is the most common abnormality in malaria-infected children with carriage of HbSS. The RBC, HCT and Hb concentration decrease with increase in RDW levels in infected children with carriage of HbSS compared to other HBB genotypes. Therefore, carriage of HbSS genotype is correlated with severity of haematological abnormalities.

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Dataset Information

The risks of malaria infection in Kenya in 2009.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

The risks of malaria infection in Kenya in 2009.

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