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Global sea level linked to global temperature.

ABSTRACT: We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880-2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report, the relationship projects a sea-level rise ranging from 75 to 190 cm for the period 1990-2100.

SUBMITTER: Vermeer M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2789754 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Global sea level linked to global temperature.

Vermeer Martin M Rahmstorf Stefan S

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20091207 51

We propose a simple relationship linking global sea-level variations on time scales of decades to centuries to global mean temperature. This relationship is tested on synthetic data from a global climate model for the past millennium and the next century. When applied to observed data of sea level and temperature for 1880-2000, and taking into account known anthropogenic hydrologic contributions to sea level, the correlation is >0.99, explaining 98% of the variance. For future global temperature ...[more]

PMID: 19995972

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