Dataset Information

The impact of realistic age structure in simple models of tuberculosis transmission.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Mathematical models of tuberculosis (TB) transmission have been used to characterize disease dynamics, investigate the potential effects of public health interventions, and prioritize control measures. While previous work has addressed the mathematical description of TB natural history, the impact of demography on the behaviour of TB models has not been assessed.

Methods

A simple model of TB transmission, with alternative assumptions about survivorship, is used to explore the effect of age structure on the prevalence of infection, disease, basic reproductive ratio and the projected impact of control interventions. We focus our analytic arguments on the differences between constant and exponentially distributed lifespans and use an individual-based model to investigate the range of behaviour arising from realistic distributions of survivorship.

Results

The choice of age structure and natural (non-disease related) mortality strongly affects steady-state dynamics, parameter estimation and predictions about the effectiveness of control interventions. Since most individuals infected with TB develop an asymptomatic latent infection and never progress to active disease, we find that assuming a constant mortality rate results in a larger reproductive ratio and an overestimation of the effort required for disease control in comparison to using more realistic age-specific mortality rates.

Conclusions

Demographic modelling assumptions should be considered in the interpretation of models of chronic infectious diseases such as TB. For simple models, we find that assuming constant lifetimes, rather than exponential lifetimes, produces dynamics more representative of models with realistic age structure.

SUBMITTER: Brooks-Pollock E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2797602 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

The impact of realistic age structure in simple models of tuberculosis transmission.

Brooks-Pollock Ellen E Cohen Ted T Murray Megan M

PloS one 20100107 1

<h4>Background</h4>Mathematical models of tuberculosis (TB) transmission have been used to characterize disease dynamics, investigate the potential effects of public health interventions, and prioritize control measures. While previous work has addressed the mathematical description of TB natural history, the impact of demography on the behaviour of TB models has not been assessed.<h4>Methods</h4>A simple model of TB transmission, with alternative assumptions about survivorship, is used to explo ...[more]

PMID: 20062531

Similar Datasets

Project description:BACKGROUND:Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24, and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown. METHODS:We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB, and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and used literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure. RESULTS:The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged <5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years. CONCLUSION:The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients are the key determinants of the age-structure of TB notification rates in Cape Town.

Project description:PURPOSE:This work aims to develop a simple, anatomically and haptically realistic vascular phantom, compatible with intravascular and intracardiac ultrasound. The low-cost, dual-layered phantom bridges the gap between traditional wall-only and wall-less phantoms by showing both the vessel wall and surrounding tissue in ultrasound imaging. This phantom can better assist clinical tool training, testing of intravascular devices, blood flow studies, and validation of algorithms for intravascular and intracardiac surgical systems. METHODS:Polyvinyl alcohol cryogel (PVA-c) incorporating a scattering agent was used to obtain vessel and tissue-mimicking materials. Our specific design targeted the inferior vena cava and renal bifurcations which were modelled using CAD software. A custom mould and container were 3D-printed for shaping the desired vessel wall. Three phantoms were prepared by varying both the concentrations of scattering agent as well as the number of freeze-thaw cycles to which the phantom layers were subjected during the manufacturing process. Each phantom was evaluated using ultrasound imaging using the Foresight™ ICE probe. Geometrical validation was provided by comparing CAD design to a CT scan of the phantom. RESULTS:The desired vascular phantom was constructed using 2.5% and 0.05% scattering agent concentration in the vessel and tissue-mimicking layers, respectively. Imaging of the three phantoms showed that increasing the number of freeze-thaw cycles did not significantly enhance the image contrast. Comparison of the US images with their CT equivalents resulted in an average error of 0.9[Formula: see text] for the lumen diameter. CONCLUSION:The phantom is anatomically realistic when imaged with intracardiac ultrasound and provides a smooth lumen for the ultrasound probe and catheter to manoeuvre. The vascular phantom enables validation of intravascular and intracardiac image guidance systems. The simple construction technique also provides a workflow for designing complex, multi-layered arterial phantoms.

Project description:BackgroundNeisseria meningitidis (Nm) is a pathogen of multiple serogroups that is highly prevalent in many populations. Serogroups associated with invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in Canada, for example, include A, B, C, W-135, X and Y. IMD is a rare but serious outcome of Nm infection, and can be prevented with vaccines that target certain serogroups. This has stimulated the development of dynamic models to evaluate vaccine impact. However, these models typically aggregate the various Nm serogroups into a small number of combined groups, instead of modelling each serogroup individually. The impact of aggregation on dynamic Nm model predictions is poorly understood. Our objective was to explore the impact of aggregation on dynamic model predictions.MethodsWe developed two age-structured agent-based models--a 2-strain model and a 4-strain model--to simulate vaccination programs in the Canadian setting. The 2-strain model was used to explore two different groupings: C, versus all other serogroups combined; and B, versus all other serogroups combined. The 4-strain model used the four groupings: C, B, Neisseria lactamica, versus all other serogroups combined. We compared the predicted impact of monovalent C vaccine, quadrivalent ACWY vaccine (MCV-4), and monovalent B vaccine (4CMenB) on the prevalence of serogroup carriage under these different models.ResultsThe 2-strain and 4-strain models predicted similar overall impacts of vaccines on carriage prevalence, especially with respect to the vaccine-targeted serogroups. However, there were some significant quantitative and qualitative differences. Declines in vaccine-targeted serogroups were more rapid in the 2-strain model than the 4-strain model, for both the C and the 4CMenB vaccines. Sustained oscillations, and evidence for multiple attractors (i.e., different types of dynamics for the same model parameters but different initial conditions), occurred in the 4-strain model but not the 2-strain model. Strain replacement was also more pronounced in the 4-strain model, on account of the 4-strain model spreading prevalence more thinly across groups and thus enhancing competitive interactions.ConclusionsSimplifying assumptions like aggregation of serogroups can have significant impacts on dynamic model predictions. Modellers should carefully weigh the advantages and disadvantages of aggregation when formulating models for multi-strain pathogens.

Dataset Information

The impact of realistic age structure in simple models of tuberculosis transmission.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

The impact of realistic age structure in simple models of tuberculosis transmission.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets