Dataset Information

Drivers of inequality in Millennium Development Goal progress: a statistical analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Many low- and middle-income countries are not on track to reach the public health targets set out in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We evaluated whether differential progress towards health MDGs was associated with economic development, public health funding (both overall and as percentage of available domestic funds), or health system infrastructure. We also examined the impact of joint epidemics of HIV/AIDS and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which may limit the ability of households to address child mortality and increase risks of infectious diseases.

Methods and findings

We calculated each country's distance from its MDG goals for HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and infant and child mortality targets for the year 2005 using the United Nations MDG database for 227 countries from 1990 to the present. We studied the association of economic development (gross domestic product [GDP] per capita in purchasing-power-parity), the relative priority placed on health (health spending as a percentage of GDP), real health spending (health system expenditures in purchasing-power-parity), HIV/AIDS burden (prevalence rates among ages 15-49 y), and NCD burden (age-standardised chronic disease mortality rates), with measures of distance from attainment of health MDGs. To avoid spurious correlations that may exist simply because countries with high disease burdens would be expected to have low MDG progress, and to adjust for potential confounding arising from differences in countries' initial disease burdens, we analysed the variations in rates of change in MDG progress versus expected rates for each country. While economic development, health priority, health spending, and health infrastructure did not explain more than one-fifth of the differences in progress to health MDGs among countries, burdens of HIV and NCDs explained more than half of between-country inequalities in child mortality progress (R(2)-infant mortality = 0.57, R(2)-under 5 mortality = 0.54). HIV/AIDS and NCD burdens were also the strongest correlates of unequal progress towards tuberculosis goals (R(2) = 0.57), with NCDs having an effect independent of HIV/AIDS, consistent with micro-level studies of the influence of tobacco and diabetes on tuberculosis risks. Even after correcting for health system variables, initial child mortality, and tuberculosis diseases, we found that lower burdens of HIV/AIDS and NCDs were associated with much greater progress towards attainment of child mortality and tuberculosis MDGs than were gains in GDP. An estimated 1% lower HIV prevalence or 10% lower mortality rate from NCDs would have a similar impact on progress towards the tuberculosis MDG as an 80% or greater rise in GDP, corresponding to at least a decade of economic growth in low-income countries.

Conclusions

Unequal progress in health MDGs in low-income countries appears significantly related to burdens of HIV and NCDs in a population, after correcting for potentially confounding socioeconomic, disease burden, political, and health system variables. The common separation between NCDs, child mortality, and infectious syndromes among development programs may obscure interrelationships of illness affecting those living in poor households--whether economic (e.g., as money spent on tobacco is lost from child health expenditures) or biological (e.g., as diabetes or HIV enhance the risk of tuberculosis).

SUBMITTER: Stuckler D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2830449 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Drivers of inequality in Millennium Development Goal progress: a statistical analysis.

Stuckler David D Basu Sanjay S McKee Martin M

PLoS medicine 20100302 3

<h4>Background</h4>Many low- and middle-income countries are not on track to reach the public health targets set out in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). We evaluated whether differential progress towards health MDGs was associated with economic development, public health funding (both overall and as percentage of available domestic funds), or health system infrastructure. We also examined the impact of joint epidemics of HIV/AIDS and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), which may limit the a ...[more]

PMID: 20209000

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Project description:IntroductionMillennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 calls for reducing mortality of children under-five years by two-thirds by 2015. Indonesia is on track to officially meet the MDG 4 targets by 2015 but progress has been far from universal. It has been argued that national level statistics, on which MDG 4 relies, obscure persistent health inequities within the country. Particularly inequities in child health are a major global public health challenge both for achieving MDG 4 in 2015 and beyond. This review aims to map out the situation of MDG 4 with respect to disadvantaged populations in Indonesia applying the Social Determinants of Health (SDH) framework. The specific objectives are to answer: Who are the disadvantaged populations? Where do they live? And why and how is the inequitable distribution of health explained in terms of the SDH framework?Methods and findingsWe retrieved studies through a systematic review of peer-reviewed and gray literature published in 1995-2014. The PRISMA-Equity 2012 statement was adapted to guide the methods of this review. The dependent variables were MDG 4-related indicators; the independent variable "disadvantaged populations" was defined by different categories of social differentiation using PROGRESS. Included texts were analyzed following the guidelines for deductive content analysis operationalized on the basis of the SDH framework. We identified 83 studies establishing evidence on more than 40 different determinants hindering an equitable distribution of child health in Indonesia. The most prominent determinants arise from the shortcomings within the rural health care system, the repercussions of food poverty coupled with low health literacy among parents, the impact of low household decision-making power of mothers, and the consequences of high persistent use of traditional birth attendants among ethnic minorities.ConclusionThis review calls for enhanced understanding of the determinants and pathways that create, detain, and overcome inequities in child health in resource constraint settings like Indonesia and the promotion of actionable health policy recommendations and tailored investments.

Project description:Background3 years before the 2015 deadline, Ethiopia achieved Millennium Development Goal 4. The under-5 mortality decreased 69%, from 205 deaths per 1000 livebirths in 1990 to 64 deaths per 1000 livebirths in 2013. To understand the underlying factors that contributed to the success in achieving MDG4, Ethiopia was selected as a Countdown to 2015 case study.MethodsWe used a set of complementary methods to analyse progress in child health in Ethiopia between 1990 and 2014. We used Demographic Health Surveys to analyse trends in coverage and equity of key reproductive, maternal health, and child health indicators. Standardised tools developed by the Countdown Health Systems and Policies working group were used to understand the timing and content of health and non-health policies. We assessed longitudinal trends in health-system investment through a financial analysis of National Health Accounts, and we used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to assess the contribution of interventions towards reducing under-5 mortality.FindingsThe annual rate of reduction in under-5 mortality increased from 3·3% in 1990-2005 to 7·8% in 2005-13. The prevalence of stunting decreased from 60% in 2000 to 40% in 2014. Overall levels of coverage of reproductive, maternal health, and child health indicators remained low, with disparities between the lowest and highest wealth quintiles despite improvement in coverage for essential health interventions. Coverage of child immunisation increased the most (21% of children in 2000 vs 80% of children in 2014), followed by coverage of satisfied demand for family planning by women of reproductive age (19% vs 63%). Provision of antenatal care increased from 10% of women in 2000 to 32% of women in 2014, but only 15% of women delivered with a skilled birth attendant by 2014. A large upturn occurred after 2005, bolstered by a rapid increase in health funding that facilitated the accelerated expansion of health infrastructure and workforce through an innovative community-based delivery system. The LiST model could explain almost 50% of the observed reduction in child mortality between 2000 and 2011; and changes in nutritional status were responsible for about 50% of the 469 000 lives saved between 2000 and 2011. These developments occurred within a multisectoral policy platform, integrating child survival and stunting goals within macro-level policies and programmes for reducing poverty and improving agricultural productivity, food security, water supply, and sanitation.InterpretationThe reduction of under-5 mortality in Ethiopia was the result of combined activities in health, nutrition, and non-health sectors. However, Ethiopia still has high neonatal and maternal morbidity and mortality from preventable causes and an unfinished agenda in reducing inequalities, improving coverage of effective interventions, and strengthening multisectoral partnerships for further progress.FundingBill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Government of Canada.

Project description:BackgroundMeasles vaccine (MV) administered as the last vaccine after the third dose of diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis (DTP) may be associated with better child survival unrelated to prevention of measles infection. Other studies have shown that MV administered after DTP was more beneficial and was associated with lower mortality compared with DTP administered after MV or DTP administered simultaneously with MV. We compared the difference in mortality between measles vaccinated after DTP3 and measles-unvaccinated children in Navrongo, Ghana.MethodsThis was a follow-up study involving annual cohort of children aged 9-23?months from 1996 to 2012. We assessed survival in relation to the measles vaccination status within the first 12?months from interview date and until 5?years of age using Cox proportional hazards models.ResultsIn all, 38,333 children were included in the study. The proportion of children vaccinated with MV-after-DTP3 increased from 45% in 1996 to 95% in 2012. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for measles unvaccinated compared with MV-after-DTP3 vaccinated children was 1.38 (1.15-1.66) in the first 12?months after assessment of vaccination status and 1.22 (1.05-1.41) with follow-up to 5?years of age. The national immunization days campaigns with oral polio vaccine or MV might have reduced the effect of being MV-after-DTP3 vaccinated vs MV-unvaccinated. For 12?months of follow-up, the HR before a campaign for MV-unvaccinated children was 1.63 (1.23-2.17) compared to those who received MV-after-DTP3. After the campaign, the HR reduced to 1.23 (0.97-1.54). Stratifying the analysis by sex, measles-unvaccinated boys had a HR of 1.69 (1.33-2.61) compared to measles-unvaccinated girls who had a HR 1.06 (0.79-1.40) during 1-year follow-up. In 1989, only 7% of children in the area had received MV-after-DTP3; the increase in MV-after-DTP3 coverage from 1989 to 2012 may have lowered mortality rate among children aged 9?months to 3?years by 24%.ConclusionThough an observational study, our findings suggest that measles vaccination, administered in the recommended sequence, is associated with improved child survival and may have contributed importantly to the mortality decline toward the achievement of Millennium Development Goal 4.

Dataset Information

Drivers of inequality in Millennium Development Goal progress: a statistical analysis.

Background

Methods and findings

Conclusions

Publications

Drivers of inequality in Millennium Development Goal progress: a statistical analysis.

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