Dataset Information

Modeling seasonal influenza outbreak in a closed college campus: impact of pre-season vaccination, in-season vaccination and holidays/breaks.

ABSTRACT:

Background

College and university students experience substantial morbidity from influenza and influenza-like illness, and they can benefit substantially from vaccination. Public health authorities encourage vaccination not only before the influenza season but also into and even throughout the influenza season. We conducted the present study to assess the impact of various vaccination strategies including delayed (i.e., in-season) vaccination on influenza outbreaks on a college campus.

Methods/findings

We used a Susceptible --> Infected --> Recovered (SIR) framework for our mathematical models to simulate influenza epidemics in a closed, college campus. We included both students and faculty/staff in the model and derived values for the model parameters from the published literature. The values for key model parameters were varied to assess the impact on the outbreak of various pre-season and delayed vaccination rates; one-way sensitivity analyses were conducted to test the sensitivity of the model outputs to changes in selected parameter values. In the base case, with a pre-season vaccination rate of 20%, no delayed vaccination, and 1 student index case, the total attack rate (total percent infected, TAR) was 45%. With higher pre-season vaccination rates TARs were lower. Even if vaccinations were given 30 days after outbreak onset, TARs were still lower than the TAR of 69% in the absence of vaccination. Varying the proportions of vaccinations given pre-season versus delayed until after the onset of the outbreak gave intermediate TAR values. Base case outputs were sensitive to changes in infectious contact rates and infectious periods and a holiday/break schedule.

Conclusion

Delayed vaccination and holidays/breaks can be important adjunctive measures to complement traditional pre-season influenza vaccination for controlling and preventing influenza in a closed college campus.

SUBMITTER: Nichol KL

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2832017 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Modeling seasonal influenza outbreak in a closed college campus: impact of pre-season vaccination, in-season vaccination and holidays/breaks.

Nichol Kristin L KL Tummers Kate K Hoyer-Leitzel Alanna A Marsh Jennifer J Moynihan Matt M McKelvey Steven S

PloS one 20100304 3

<h4>Background</h4>College and university students experience substantial morbidity from influenza and influenza-like illness, and they can benefit substantially from vaccination. Public health authorities encourage vaccination not only before the influenza season but also into and even throughout the influenza season. We conducted the present study to assess the impact of various vaccination strategies including delayed (i.e., in-season) vaccination on influenza outbreaks on a college campus.<h ...[more]

PMID: 20209058

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Project description:The relative importance of different attitudes in predicting vaccination among healthcare personnel (HCP) is unclear. We hypothesized that HCP who feel at risk without vaccination or say they would regret not getting vaccinated would be more likely to get vaccinated than HCP who do not expect these emotional benefits.A prospective cohort of 1544 HCP with direct patient care was enrolled from September 18 to December 18, 2010 at Scott & White Healthcare in Texas and Kaiser Permanente Northwest in Oregon and Washington. An Internet-based questionnaire assessed pre-season intention to be vaccinated and included 12 questions on attitudes about vaccination: single-item measures of perceived susceptibility and vaccine effectiveness, 5 items that were summed to form a concerns about vaccine scale, and 5 items summed to form an emotional benefits of vaccination scale. Influenza vaccination status for the 2010-2011 season and for 5 prior seasons was confirmed by medical record extraction.There were significant differences between vaccinated and unvaccinated HCP on all attitude items; 72% of vaccinated HCP agreed that they "worry less about getting the flu" if vaccinated, compared to only 26% of the unvaccinated (odds ratio=7.4, 95% confidence interval=5.8-9.5). In a multivariate model, the emotional benefits scale was the strongest predictor of 2010-2011 seasonal influenza vaccination, after adjusting for other attitude measures, prior vaccination history, and pre-season intention to be vaccinated. The predictive value of the emotional benefits scale was strongest for HCP with low pre-season intention to be vaccinated, where HCP vaccine receipt was 15% versus 83% for those with low versus high scores on the emotional benefits scale.The expected emotional benefits of vaccination strongly affect seasonal influenza vaccination among HCP, even after taking into account other attitudes, pre-season intentions, and prior vaccination history. These attitudes are promising targets for future vaccination campaigns.

Dataset Information

Modeling seasonal influenza outbreak in a closed college campus: impact of pre-season vaccination, in-season vaccination and holidays/breaks.

Background

Methods/findings

Conclusion

Publications

Modeling seasonal influenza outbreak in a closed college campus: impact of pre-season vaccination, in-season vaccination and holidays/breaks.

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