Dataset Information

Real-time epidemic monitoring and forecasting of H1N1-2009 using influenza-like illness from general practice and family doctor clinics in Singapore.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Reporting of influenza-like illness (ILI) from general practice/family doctor (GPFD) clinics is an accurate indicator of real-time epidemic activity and requires little effort to set up, making it suitable for developing countries currently experiencing the influenza A (H1N1-2009) pandemic or preparing for subsequent epidemic waves.

Methodology/principal findings

We established a network of GPFDs in Singapore. Participating GPFDs submitted returns via facsimile or e-mail on their work days using a simple, standard data collection format, capturing: gender; year of birth; "ethnicity"; residential status; body temperature (degrees C); and treatment (antiviral or not); for all cases with a clinical diagnosis of an acute respiratory illness (ARI). The operational definition of ILI in this study was an ARI with fever of 37.8 degrees C or more. The data were processed daily by the study co-ordinator and fed into a stochastic model of disease dynamics, which was refitted daily using particle filtering, with data and forecasts uploaded to a website which could be publicly accessed. Twenty-three GPFD clinics agreed to participate. Data collection started on 2009-06-26 and lasted for the duration of the epidemic. The epidemic appeared to have peaked around 2009-08-03 and the ILI rates had returned to baseline levels by the time of writing.

Conclusions/significance

This real-time surveillance system is able to show the progress of an epidemic and indicates when the peak is reached. The resulting information can be used to form forecasts, including how soon the epidemic wave will end and when a second wave will appear if at all.

SUBMITTER: Ong JB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2854682 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

Real-time epidemic monitoring and forecasting of H1N1-2009 using influenza-like illness from general practice and family doctor clinics in Singapore.

Ong Jimmy Boon Som JB Chen Mark I-Cheng MI Cook Alex R AR Lee Huey Chyi HC Lee Vernon J VJ Lin Raymond Tzer Pin RT Tambyah Paul Ananth PA Goh Lee Gan LG

PloS one 20100414 4

<h4>Background</h4>Reporting of influenza-like illness (ILI) from general practice/family doctor (GPFD) clinics is an accurate indicator of real-time epidemic activity and requires little effort to set up, making it suitable for developing countries currently experiencing the influenza A (H1N1-2009) pandemic or preparing for subsequent epidemic waves.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We established a network of GPFDs in Singapore. Participating GPFDs submitted returns via facsimile or e-mai ...[more]

PMID: 20418945

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Project description:Preliminary studies suggested that Aboriginal Canadians had disproportionately higher rates of infection, hospitalization, and critical illness due to pandemic Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09.We used a prospective cohort study of critically ill patients with laboratory confirmed or probable H1N1 infection in Canada between April 16 2009 and April 12 2010. Baseline characteristics, medical interventions, clinical course and outcomes were compared between Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal patients. The primary outcome was hospital mortality.Of 647 critically ill adult patients with known ethnicity, 81 (12.5%) were Aboriginal, 566 (87.5%) were non-Aboriginal. Aboriginal patients were younger (mean [SD] age 40.7[13.7] v. 49.0[14.9] years, p < 0.001) and more frequently female (64.2% v. 51.1%, p = 0.027). Rates of any co-morbid illnesses (Aboriginal v. non-Aboriginal, 92.6% v. 91.0%, p = 0.63), time from symptom onset to hospital admission (median [interquartile range] 4 [2-7] v. 4 [2-7] days, p = 0.84), time to ICU admission (5 [3-8] v.5 [3-8] days, p = 0.91), and severity of illness (mean APACHE II score (19.9 [9.6] v. 21.1 [9.9], p = 0.33) were similar. A similar proportion of Aboriginal patients received antiviral medication before ICU admission than non-Aboriginal patients (91.4% v. 93.8%, p = 0.40). Among Aboriginal versus non-Aboriginal patients, the need for mechanical ventilation (93.8% v. 88.6%, p = 0.15), ventilator-free days (14 [3-23] v. 17 [0-24], p = 0.62), durations of stay in ICU (13[7-19.5] v. 11 [5-8] days, p = 0.05), hospital (19 [12.5-33.5] v. 18 [11-35] days, p = 0.63), and hospital mortality were similar (19.8% v. 22.6%, p = 0.56). In multiple logistic regression analyses, higher APACHE II score (1.06; 1.04-1.09, p<0.001) was independently associated with an increased risk of death; antiviral treatment with a lower risk of death (0.34; 0.15 - 0.78, p = 0.01). Ethnicity was not associated with mortality.During the 2009-2010 Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal Canadians with H1N1-related critical illness had a similar risk of death, after adjusting for potential confounding factors.

Dataset Information

Real-time epidemic monitoring and forecasting of H1N1-2009 using influenza-like illness from general practice and family doctor clinics in Singapore.

Background

Methodology/principal findings

Conclusions/significance

Publications

Real-time epidemic monitoring and forecasting of H1N1-2009 using influenza-like illness from general practice and family doctor clinics in Singapore.

Similar Datasets

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