Dataset Information

Investigating the effect of social changes on age-specific gun-related homicide rates in New York City during the 1990s.

ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES:We assessed whether New York City's gun-related homicide rates in the 1990s were associated with a range of social determinants of homicide rates. METHODS:We used cross-sectional time-series data for 74 New York City police precincts from 1990 through 1999, and we estimated Bayesian hierarchical models with a spatial error term. Homicide rates were estimated separately for victims aged 15-24 years (youths), 25-34 years (young adults), and 35 years or older (adults). RESULTS:Decreased cocaine consumption was associated with declining homicide rates in youths (posterior median [PM] = 0.25; 95% Bayesian confidence interval [BCI] = 0.07, 0.45) and adults (PM = 0.07; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.12), and declining alcohol consumption was associated with fewer homicides in young adults (PM = 0.14; 95% BCI = 0.02, 0.25). Receipt of public assistance was associated with fewer homicides for young adults (PM = -104.20; 95% BCI = -182.0, -26.14) and adults (PM = -28.76; 95% BCI = -52.65, -5.01). Misdemeanor policing was associated with fewer homicides in adults (PM = -0.01; 95% BCI = -0.02, -0.001). CONCLUSIONS:Substance use prevention policies and expansion of the social safety net may be able to cause major reductions in homicide among age groups that drive city homicide trends.

SUBMITTER: Cerda M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2866619 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Investigating the effect of social changes on age-specific gun-related homicide rates in New York City during the 1990s.

Cerdá Magdalena M Messner Steven F SF Tracy Melissa M Vlahov David D Goldmann Emily E Tardiff Kenneth J KJ Galea Sandro S

American journal of public health 20100415 6

<h4>Objectives</h4>We assessed whether New York City's gun-related homicide rates in the 1990s were associated with a range of social determinants of homicide rates.<h4>Methods</h4>We used cross-sectional time-series data for 74 New York City police precincts from 1990 through 1999, and we estimated Bayesian hierarchical models with a spatial error term. Homicide rates were estimated separately for victims aged 15-24 years (youths), 25-34 years (young adults), and 35 years or older (adults).<h4> ...[more]

PMID: 20395590

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Project description:BackgroundSexually transmitted infections spread across contact networks. Partner elicitation and notification are commonly used public health tools to identify, notify, and offer testing to persons linked in these contact networks. For HIV-1, a rapidly evolving pathogen with low per-contact transmission rates, viral genetic sequences are an additional source of data that can be used to infer or refine transmission networks.Methods and findingsThe New York City Department of Health and Mental Hygiene interviews individuals newly diagnosed with HIV and elicits names of sexual and injection drug using partners. By law, the Department of Health also receives HIV sequences when these individuals enter healthcare and their physicians order resistance testing. Our study used both HIV sequence and partner naming data from 1342 HIV-infected persons in New York City between 2006 and 2012 to infer and compare sexual/drug-use named partner and genetic transmission networks. Using these networks, we determined a range of genetic distance thresholds suitable for identifying potential transmission partners. In 48% of cases, named partners were infected with genetically closely related viruses, compatible with but not necessarily representing or implying, direct transmission. Partner pairs linked through the genetic similarity of their HIV sequences were also linked by naming in 53% of cases. Persons who reported high-risk heterosexual contact were more likely to name at least one partner with a genetically similar virus than those reporting their risk as injection drug use or men who have sex with men.ConclusionsWe analyzed an unprecedentedly large and detailed partner tracing and HIV sequence dataset and determined an empirically justified range of genetic distance thresholds for identifying potential transmission partners. We conclude that genetic linkage provides more reliable evidence for identifying potential transmission partners than partner naming, highlighting the importance and complementarity of both epidemiological and molecular genetic surveillance for characterizing regional HIV-1 epidemics.

Dataset Information

Investigating the effect of social changes on age-specific gun-related homicide rates in New York City during the 1990s.

Publications

Investigating the effect of social changes on age-specific gun-related homicide rates in New York City during the 1990s.

Similar Datasets

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