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Transmissibility and geographic spread of the 1889 influenza pandemic.

ABSTRACT: Until now, mortality and spreading mechanisms of influenza pandemics have been studied only for the 1918, 1957, and 1968 pandemics; none have concerned the 19th century. Herein, we examined the 1889 "Russian" pandemic. Clinical attack rates were retrieved for 408 geographic entities in 14 European countries and in the United States. Case fatality ratios were estimated from datasets in the French, British and German armies, and morbidity and mortality records of Swiss cities. Weekly all-cause mortality was analyzed in 96 European and American cities. The pandemic spread rapidly, taking only 4 months to circumnavigate the planet, peaking in the United States 70 days after the original peak in St. Petersburg. The median and interquartile range of clinical attack rates was 60% (45-70%). The case fatality ratios ranged from 0.1% to 0.28%, which is comparable to those of 1957 and 1968, and 10-fold lower than in 1918. The median basic reproduction number (R(0)) was 2.1, which is comparable to the values found for the other pandemics, despite the different viruses and contact networks. R(0) values varied widely from one city to another, and only a small minority of those values was within the range in which modelers' mitigation scenarios predicted effectiveness. The 1889 and 1918 R(0) correlated for the subset of cities for which both values were available. Social and geographic factors probably shape the local R(0) , and they could be identified to design optimal mitigation scenarios tailored to each city.

SUBMITTER: Valleron AJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2889325 | biostudies-literature | 2010 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Transmissibility and geographic spread of the 1889 influenza pandemic.

Valleron Alain-Jacques AJ Cori Anne A Valtat Sophie S Meurisse Sofia S Carrat Fabrice F Boëlle Pierre-Yves PY

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20100426 19

Until now, mortality and spreading mechanisms of influenza pandemics have been studied only for the 1918, 1957, and 1968 pandemics; none have concerned the 19th century. Herein, we examined the 1889 "Russian" pandemic. Clinical attack rates were retrieved for 408 geographic entities in 14 European countries and in the United States. Case fatality ratios were estimated from datasets in the French, British and German armies, and morbidity and mortality records of Swiss cities. Weekly all-cause mor ...[more]

PMID: 20421481

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Project description:The neuraminidase (NA) inhibitor oseltamivir offers an important immediate option for the control of influenza, and its clinical use has increased substantially during the recent H1N1 pandemic. In view of the high prevalence of oseltamivir-resistant seasonal H1N1 influenza viruses in 2007-2008, there is an urgent need to characterize the transmissibility and fitness of oseltamivir-resistant H1N1/2009 viruses, although resistant variants have been isolated at a low rate. Here we studied the transmissibility of a closely matched pair of pandemic H1N1/2009 clinical isolates, one oseltamivir-sensitive and one resistant, in the ferret model. The resistant H275Y mutant was derived from a patient on oseltamivir prophylaxis and was the first oseltamivir-resistant isolate of the pandemic virus. Full genome sequencing revealed that the pair of viruses differed only at NA amino acid position 275. We found that the oseltamivir-resistant H1N1/2009 virus was not transmitted efficiently in ferrets via respiratory droplets (0/2), while it retained efficient transmission via direct contact (2/2). The sensitive H1N1/2009 virus was efficiently transmitted via both routes (2/2 and 1/2, respectively). The wild-type H1N1/2009 and the resistant mutant appeared to cause a similar disease course in ferrets without apparent attenuation of clinical signs. We compared viral fitness within the host by co-infecting a ferret with oseltamivir-sensitive and -resistant H1N1/2009 viruses and found that the resistant virus showed less growth capability (fitness). The NA of the resistant virus showed reduced substrate-binding affinity and catalytic activity in vitro and delayed initial growth in MDCK and MDCK-SIAT1 cells. These findings may in part explain its less efficient transmission. The fact that the oseltamivir-resistant H1N1/2009 virus retained efficient transmission through direct contact underlines the necessity of continuous monitoring of drug resistance and characterization of possible evolving viral proteins during the pandemic.

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Transmissibility and geographic spread of the 1889 influenza pandemic.

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Transmissibility and geographic spread of the 1889 influenza pandemic.

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