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Early mortality and loss to follow-up in HIV-infected children starting antiretroviral therapy in Southern Africa.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:Many HIV-infected children in Southern Africa have been started on antiretroviral therapy (ART), but loss to follow up (LTFU) can be substantial. We analyzed mortality in children retained in care and in all children starting ART, taking LTFU into account. PATIENTS AND METHODS:Children who started ART before the age of 16 years in 10 ART programs in South Africa, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe were included. Risk factors for death in the first year of ART were identified in Weibull models. A meta-analytic approach was used to estimate cumulative mortality at 1 year. RESULTS:Eight thousand two hundred twenty-five children (median age 49 months, median CD4 cell percent 11.6%) were included; 391 (4.8%) died and 523 (7.0%) were LTFU in the first year. Mortality at 1 year was 4.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.8% to 7.4%] in children remaining in care, but 8.7% (5.4% to 12.1%) at the program level, after taking mortality in children and LTFU into account. Factors associated with mortality in children remaining in care included age [adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.37; 95% CI: 0.25 to 0.54 comparing > or =120 months with <18 months], CD4 cell percent (HR: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.39 to 0.78 comparing > or =20% with <10%), and clinical stage (HR: 0.12; 95% CI: 0.03 to 0.45 comparing World Health Organization stage I with III/IV). CONCLUSIONS:In children starting ART and remaining in care in Southern Africa mortality at 1 year is <5% but almost twice as high at the program level, when taking LTFU into account. Age, CD4 percentage, and clinical stage are important predictors of mortality at the individual level.

SUBMITTER: Fenner L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2925143 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Early mortality and loss to follow-up in HIV-infected children starting antiretroviral therapy in Southern Africa.

Fenner Lukas L Brinkhof Martin W G MW Keiser Olivia O Weigel Ralf R Cornell Morna M Moultrie Harry H Prozesky Hans H Technau Karl K Eley Brian B Vaz Paula P Pascoe Margaret M Giddy Janet J Van Cutsem Gilles G Wood Robin R Egger Matthias M Davies Mary-Ann MA

Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) 20100801 5

<h4>Background</h4>Many HIV-infected children in Southern Africa have been started on antiretroviral therapy (ART), but loss to follow up (LTFU) can be substantial. We analyzed mortality in children retained in care and in all children starting ART, taking LTFU into account.<h4>Patients and methods</h4>Children who started ART before the age of 16 years in 10 ART programs in South Africa, Malawi, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe were included. Risk factors for death in the first year of ART were identif ...[more]

PMID: 20588185

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Project description:BackgroundMortality in HIV-infected patients who have access to highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART) has declined in sub-Saharan Africa, but it is unclear how mortality compares to the non-HIV-infected population. We compared mortality rates observed in HIV-1-infected patients starting ART with non-HIV-related background mortality in four countries in sub-Saharan Africa.Methods and findingsPatients enrolled in antiretroviral treatment programmes in Côte d'Ivoire, Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe were included. We calculated excess mortality rates and standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Expected numbers of deaths were obtained using estimates of age-, sex-, and country-specific, HIV-unrelated, mortality rates from the Global Burden of Disease project. Among 13,249 eligible patients 1,177 deaths were recorded during 14,695 person-years of follow-up. The median age was 34 y, 8,831 (67%) patients were female, and 10,811 of 12,720 patients (85%) with information on clinical stage had advanced disease when starting ART. The excess mortality rate was 17.5 (95% CI 14.5-21.1) per 100 person-years SMR in patients who started ART with a CD4 cell count of less than 25 cells/microl and World Health Organization (WHO) stage III/IV, compared to 1.00 (0.55-1.81) per 100 person-years in patients who started with 200 cells/microl or above with WHO stage I/II. The corresponding SMRs were 47.1 (39.1-56.6) and 3.44 (1.91-6.17). Among patients who started ART with 200 cells/microl or above in WHO stage I/II and survived the first year of ART, the excess mortality rate was 0.27 (0.08-0.94) per 100 person-years and the SMR was 1.14 (0.47-2.77).ConclusionsMortality of HIV-infected patients treated with combination ART in sub-Saharan Africa continues to be higher than in the general population, but for some patients excess mortality is moderate and reaches that of the general population in the second year of ART. Much of the excess mortality might be prevented by timely initiation of ART.

Project description:IntroductionLong-term survival of HIV patients after initiating highly active antiretroviral therapy (ART) has not been sufficiently described in Latin America and the Caribbean, as compared to other regions. The aim of this study was to describe the incidence of mortality, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and associated risk factors for patients enrolled in the Caribbean, Central and South America Network (CCASAnet).MethodsWe assessed time from ART initiation (baseline) to death or LTFU between 2000 and 2014 among ART-naïve adults (≥18 years) from sites in seven countries included in CCASAnet: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Mexico and Peru. Kaplan-Meier techniques were used to estimate the probability of mortality over time. Risk factors for death were assessed using Cox regression models stratified by site and adjusted for sex, baseline age, nadir pre-ART CD4 count, calendar year of ART initiation, clinical AIDS at baseline and type of ART regimen.ResultsA total of 16,996 ART initiators were followed for a median of 3.5 years (interquartile range (IQR): 1.6-6.2). The median age at ART initiation was 36 years (IQR: 30-44), subjects were predominantly male (63%), median CD4 count was 156 cells/µL (IQR: 60-251) and 26% of subjects had clinical AIDS prior to starting ART. Initial ART regimens were predominantly non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor based (86%). The cumulative incidence of LTFU five years after ART initiation was 18.2% (95% confidence interval (CI) 17.5-18.8%). A total of 1582 (9.3%) subjects died; the estimated probability of death one, three and five years after ART initiation was 5.4, 8.3 and 10.3%, respectively. The estimated five-year mortality probability varied substantially across sites, from 3.5 to 14.0%. Risk factors for death were clinical AIDS at baseline (adjusted hazard ratio (HR)=1.65 (95% CI 1.47-1.87); p<0.001), lower baseline CD4 (HR=1.95 (95% CI 1.63-2.32) for 50 vs. 350 cells/µL; p<0.001) and older age (HR=1.47 (95% CI 1.29-1.69) for 50 vs. 30 years at ART initiation; p<0.001).ConclusionsIn this large, long-term study of mortality among HIV-positive adults initiating ART in Latin America and the Caribbean, overall estimates of mortality were heterogeneous, generally falling between those reported in high-income countries and sub-Saharan Africa.

Project description:BackgroundThe World Health Organization estimates that in sub-Saharan Africa about 4 million HIV-infected patients had started antiretroviral therapy (ART) by the end of 2008. Loss of patients to follow-up and care is an important problem for treatment programmes in this region. As mortality is high in these patients compared to patients remaining in care, ART programmes with high rates of loss to follow-up may substantially underestimate mortality of all patients starting ART.Methods and findingsWe developed a nomogram to correct mortality estimates for loss to follow-up, based on the fact that mortality of all patients starting ART in a treatment programme is a weighted average of mortality among patients lost to follow-up and patients remaining in care. The nomogram gives a correction factor based on the percentage of patients lost to follow-up at a given point in time, and the estimated ratio of mortality between patients lost and not lost to follow-up. The mortality observed among patients retained in care is then multiplied by the correction factor to obtain an estimate of programme-level mortality that takes all deaths into account. A web calculator directly calculates the corrected, programme-level mortality with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We applied the method to 11 ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa. Patients retained in care had a mortality at 1 year of 1.4% to 12.0%; loss to follow-up ranged from 2.8% to 28.7%; and the correction factor from 1.2 to 8.0. The absolute difference between uncorrected and corrected mortality at 1 year ranged from 1.6% to 9.8%, and was above 5% in four programmes. The largest difference in mortality was in a programme with 28.7% of patients lost to follow-up at 1 year.ConclusionsThe amount of bias in mortality estimates can be large in ART programmes with substantial loss to follow-up. Programmes should routinely report mortality among patients retained in care and the proportion of patients lost. A simple nomogram can then be used to estimate mortality among all patients who started ART, for a range of plausible mortality rates among patients lost to follow-up.

Dataset Information

Early mortality and loss to follow-up in HIV-infected children starting antiretroviral therapy in Southern Africa.

Publications

Early mortality and loss to follow-up in HIV-infected children starting antiretroviral therapy in Southern Africa.

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