Dataset Information

Do-not-resuscitate orders and predictive models after intracerebral hemorrhage.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To quantify the accuracy of commonly used intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) predictive models in ICH patients with and without early do-not-resuscitate orders (DNR).

Methods

Spontaneous ICH cases (n = 487) from the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi study (2000-2003) and the University of California, San Francisco (June 2001-May 2004) were included. Three models (the ICH Score, the Cincinnati model, and the ICH grading scale [ICH-GS]) were compared to observed 30-day mortality with a chi(2) goodness-of-fit test first overall and then stratified by early DNR orders.

Results

Median age was 71 years, 49% were female, median Glasgow Coma Scale score was 12, median ICH volume was 13 cm(3), and 35% had early DNR orders. Overall observed 30-day mortality was 42.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] 38.3-47.1), with the average model-predicted 30-day mortality for the ICH Score, Cincinnati model, and ICH-GS at 39.9% (p = 0.005), 40.4% (p = 0.007), and 53.9% (p < 0.001). However, for patients with early DNR orders, the observed 30-day mortality was 83.5% (95% CI 78.0-89.1), with the models predicting mortality of 64.8% (p < 0.001), 57.2% (p < 0.001), and 77.8% (p = 0.02). For patients without early DNR orders, the observed 30-day mortality was 20.8% (95% CI 16.5-25.7), with the models predicting mortality of 26.6% (p = 0.05), 31.4% (p < 0.001), and 41.1% (p < 0.001).

Conclusions

ICH prognostic model performance is substantially impacted when stratifying by early DNR status, possibly giving a false sense of model accuracy when DNR status is not considered. Clinicians should be cautious when applying these predictive models to individual patients.

SUBMITTER: Zahuranec DB

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2931769 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Do-not-resuscitate orders and predictive models after intracerebral hemorrhage.

Zahuranec D B DB Morgenstern L B LB Sánchez B N BN Resnicow K K White D B DB Hemphill J C JC

Neurology 20100707 7

<h4>Objective</h4>To quantify the accuracy of commonly used intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) predictive models in ICH patients with and without early do-not-resuscitate orders (DNR).<h4>Methods</h4>Spontaneous ICH cases (n = 487) from the Brain Attack Surveillance in Corpus Christi study (2000-2003) and the University of California, San Francisco (June 2001-May 2004) were included. Three models (the ICH Score, the Cincinnati model, and the ICH grading scale [ICH-GS]) were compared to observed 30-d ...[more]

PMID: 20610832

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Project description:Statistical models predicting outcome after intraparenchymal hemorrhage include patients irrespective of do-not-attempt-resuscitation orders. We built a model to explore how the inclusion of patients with do-not-attempt-resuscitation orders affects intraparenchymal hemorrhage prognostic models.Retrospective, observational cohort study from May 2001 until September 2003.University-affiliated tertiary referral hospital in Seattle, WA.Four hundred twenty-four consecutive patients with spontaneous intraparenchymal hemorrhage.We retrospectively abstracted information from medical records of intraparenchymal hemorrhage patients admitted to a single hospital. Using multivariate logistic regression of presenting clinical characteristics, but not do-not-attempt-resuscitation status, we generated a prognostic score for favorable outcome (defined as moderate disability or better at discharge). We compared observed probability of favorable outcome with that predicted, stratified by do-not-attempt-resuscitation status. We then generated a modified prognostic score using only non-do-not-attempt-resuscitation patients. Records of 424 patients were reviewed: 44% had favorable outcome, 43% had a do-not-attempt-resuscitation order, and 38% died in hospital. The observed and predicted probability of favorable outcome agreed well with all patients taken together. The observed probability of favorable outcome was significantly higher than predicted in non-do-not-attempt-resuscitation patients and significantly lower in do-not-attempt-resuscitation patients. Results were similar when applying a previously published and validated prognostic score. Our modified prognostic score was no longer pessimistic in non-do-not-attempt-resuscitation patients but remained overly optimistic in do-not-attempt-resuscitation patients.Although our prognostic model was well-calibrated when assessing all intraparenchymal hemorrhage patients, predictions were significantly pessimistic in patients without and optimistic in those with do-not-attempt-resuscitation orders. Such pessimism may drive decisions not to attempt resuscitation in patients in whom a favorable outcome may have been possible, thereby creating a self-fulfilling prophecy. To be most useful in clinical decision making, intraparenchymal hemorrhage prognostic models should be calibrated to large intraparenchymal hemorrhage cohorts in whom do-not-attempt-resuscitation orders were not used.

Project description:BackgroundPrognostic tools for intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) patients are potentially useful for ascertaining prognosis and recommended in guidelines to facilitate streamline assessment and communication between providers. In this systematic review with meta-analysis we identified and characterized all existing prognostic tools for this population, performed a methodological evaluation of the conducting and reporting of such studies and compared different methods of prognostic tool derivation in terms of discrimination for mortality and functional outcome prediction.MethodsPubMed, ISI, Scopus and CENTRAL were searched up to 15th September 2016, with additional studies identified using reference check. Two reviewers independently extracted data regarding the population studied, process of tool derivation, included predictors and discrimination (c statistic) using a predesignated spreadsheet based in the CHARMS checklist. Disagreements were solved by consensus. C statistics were pooled using robust variance estimation and meta-regression was applied for group comparisons using random effect models.ResultsFifty nine studies were retrieved, including 48,133 patients and reporting on the derivation of 72 prognostic tools. Data on discrimination (c statistic) was available for 53 tools, 38 focusing on mortality and 15 focusing on functional outcome. Discrimination was high for both outcomes, with a pooled c statistic of 0.88 for mortality and 0.87 for functional outcome. Forty three tools were regression based and nine tools were derived using machine learning algorithms, with no differences found between the two methods in terms of discrimination (p?=?0.490). Several methodological issues however were identified, relating to handling of missing data, low number of events per variable, insufficient length of follow-up, absence of blinding, infrequent use of internal validation, and underreporting of important model performance measures.ConclusionsPrognostic tools for ICH discriminated well for mortality and functional outcome in derivation studies but methodological issues require confirmation of these findings in validation studies. Logistic regression based risk scores are particularly promising given their good performance and ease of application.

Project description:Background and aimsThe apolipoprotein B (apoB)/apolipoprotein A1 (apoA1) ratio is a key indicator in predicting future cardiovascular outcomes. However, it is still unclear whether the ratio of apoB/apoA1 is a better predictor of the outcomes after intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH). Therefore, we aimed to assess the relationships between the ratio of apoB/apoA1 and functional outcomes, all-cause mortality, and stroke recurrence in ICH patients.MethodsTwo hundred and sixteen Chinese ICH patients participated in this study from December 2018 to December 2019. Laboratory routine tests including hematology analysis, coagulation tests, and lipid levels were examined. The clinical outcomes included functional outcomes evaluated by the modified Rankin Scale score (mRS), all-cause death, and stroke recurrence 1 year after discharge. Associations between the apoB/apoA1 ratio and the outcomes were evaluated using logistic regression analysis. Based on multivariate analysis, we constructed a nomogram. Univariate survival analysis was performed by the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test. All the patients were classified into two groups by the median value of the apoB/apoA1 ratio: B1 < 0.8 and B2 ≥ 0.8.ResultsOf the 216 patients, 107 had an apoB/apoA1 ratio ≥ 0.8. Eighty-five patients had poor functional outcomes (mRS ≥ 3), and 32 patients had severe functional outcomes (mRS ≥ 4). During the 1-year follow-up, a total of 18 patients died, and 13 patients had apoB/apoA1 ratio levels ≥0.8 during the 1-year follow-up period. Moreover, 16 recurrent strokes were recorded. Adjustments for age, sex, smoking, alcohol, body mass index, lipid levels, and hematoma site and volume showed that a high apoB/apoA1 ratio was significantly related to adverse functional outcomes and all-cause mortality. The ORs for B2 versus B1 were 3.76 (95% CI: 1.37 to 10.40, p = 0.010), 22.74 (95% CI: 1.08 to 474.65, p = 0.044), and 7.23 (95% CI: 1.28 to 40.88, p = 0.025) for poor functional outcomes with mRS ≥ 3, mRS ≥ 4, and all-cause mortality, respectively.ConclusionAn increased apoB/apoA1 ratio at admission was independently related to poor functional outcome and all-cause mortality in ICH patients at the 1-year follow-up.

Project description:Although do-not-resuscitate orders only prohibit cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the case of cardiac arrest, the common initiation of this code status in the context of end-of-life care may lead providers to draw premature conclusions about other goals of care. The aim of this study is to identify concerns regarding care quality in the setting of do-not-resuscitate orders within the Department of Defense and compare differences in perceptions between members of the critical care team.DesignA cross sectional observational study was conducted.SettingThis study took place in the setting of critical care within the Department of Defense.SubjectsAll members of the Uniformed Services Section of the Society of Critical Care Medicine were invited to participate.InterventionsA validated 31-question survey exploring the perceptions of care quality in the setting of do-not-resuscitate status was distributed.Measurements and main resultsExploratory factor analysis was used to categorically group survey questions, and average factor scores were compared between respondent groups using t tests. Responses to individual questions were also analyzed between comparison groups using Fisher exact tests. Factor analysis revealed no significant differences between respondents of different training backgrounds; however, those with do-not-resuscitate training were more likely to agree that active treatment would be pursued (p = 0.024) and that trust and communication would be maintained (p = 0.005). Although 38% of all respondents worry that quality of care will decrease, 93% agree that life-prolonging treatments should be offered. About a third of providers wrongly believed that a do-not-resuscitate order must be reversed prior to an operation.ConclusionsAlthough providers across training backgrounds held similar concerns about decreased care quality in the ICU, there is wide belief that the routine and noninvasive interventions are offered as indicated. Those with do-not-resuscitate training were more likely to believe that standards of care continued to be met after code status change.

Dataset Information

Do-not-resuscitate orders and predictive models after intracerebral hemorrhage.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Do-not-resuscitate orders and predictive models after intracerebral hemorrhage.

Similar Datasets

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