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General Cardiovascular Risk Profile identifies advanced coronary artery calcium and is improved by family history: the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis.

ABSTRACT: The General Cardiovascular Risk Profile is a multivariable model that predicts global cardiovascular disease risk. Our goal was to assess the ability of the General Cardiovascular Risk Profile to identify individuals with advanced coronary artery calcification (CAC) and determine whether identification is improved with family history.Using data from the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, 3 sex-specific models were developed with ordinal logistic regressions to relate risk factors to CAC scores. Model 1 included covariates in the General Cardiovascular Risk Profile. Then family history was added, defined as having at least 1 first-degree relative with premature coronary heart disease (model 2) or as a weak, moderate, or strong family history based on number of relatives with coronary heart disease, age at onset, and the presence of stroke or diabetes in the family (model 3). For each model, we estimated mathematical CAC risk functions, derived CAC score sheets, evaluated the ability to discriminate persons having positive CAC scores, and assessed reclassification of individuals with low, intermediate, or high probability of CAC >300. Model 1 worked well to identify women and men with positive CAC scores; c-statistics were 0.752 and 0.718 and chi(2) values were 821.2 (P<0.0001) and 730.6 (P<0.0001), respectively. Addition of family history improved discrimination and fit of model 1. However, reclassification of participants with advanced CAC was significantly improved with model 3 only.The General Cardiovascular Risk Profile identifies advanced CAC, an emerging indication for aggressive risk factor modification. Incorporation of family history, especially comprehensive familial risk stratification, provides incremental prognostic value.

SUBMITTER: Scheuner MT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2932659 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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General Cardiovascular Risk Profile identifies advanced coronary artery calcium and is improved by family history: the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis.

Scheuner Maren T MT Setodji Claude Messan CM Pankow James S JS Blumenthal Roger S RS Keeler Emmett E

Circulation. Cardiovascular genetics 20091214 1

<h4>Background</h4>The General Cardiovascular Risk Profile is a multivariable model that predicts global cardiovascular disease risk. Our goal was to assess the ability of the General Cardiovascular Risk Profile to identify individuals with advanced coronary artery calcification (CAC) and determine whether identification is improved with family history.<h4>Methods and results</h4>Using data from the Multiethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, 3 sex-specific models were developed with ordinal logistic ...[more]

PMID: 20160201

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Project description:BackgroundEarly detection of coronary atherosclerosis using coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), in addition to coronary artery calcification (CAC) scoring, may help inform prevention strategies. We used CCTA to determine the prevalence, severity, and characteristics of coronary atherosclerosis and its association with CAC scores in a general population.MethodsWe recruited 30 154 randomly invited individuals age 50 to 64 years to SCAPIS (the Swedish Cardiopulmonary Bioimage Study). The study includes individuals without known coronary heart disease (ie, no previous myocardial infarctions or cardiac procedures) and with high-quality results from CCTA and CAC imaging performed using dedicated dual-source CT scanners. Noncontrast images were scored for CAC. CCTA images were visually read and scored for coronary atherosclerosis per segment (defined as no atherosclerosis, 1% to 49% stenosis, or ≥50% stenosis). External validity of prevalence estimates was evaluated using inverse probability for participation weighting and Swedish register data.ResultsIn total, 25 182 individuals without known coronary heart disease were included (50.6% women). Any CCTA-detected atherosclerosis was found in 42.1%; any significant stenosis (≥50%) in 5.2%; left main, proximal left anterior descending artery, or 3-vessel disease in 1.9%; and any noncalcified plaques in 8.3% of this population. Onset of atherosclerosis was delayed on average by 10 years in women. Atherosclerosis was more prevalent in older individuals and predominantly found in the proximal left anterior descending artery. Prevalence of CCTA-detected atherosclerosis increased with increasing CAC scores. Among those with a CAC score >400, all had atherosclerosis and 45.7% had significant stenosis. In those with 0 CAC, 5.5% had atherosclerosis and 0.4% had significant stenosis. In participants with 0 CAC and intermediate 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease according to the pooled cohort equation, 9.2% had CCTA-verified atherosclerosis. Prevalence estimates had excellent external validity and changed marginally when adjusted to the age-matched Swedish background population.ConclusionsUsing CCTA in a large, random sample of the general population without established disease, we showed that silent coronary atherosclerosis is common in this population. High CAC scores convey a significant probability of substantial stenosis, and 0 CAC does not exclude atherosclerosis, particularly in those at higher baseline risk.

Project description:This study sought to determine if coronary artery calcium (CAC) is associated with incident noncardiovascular disease.CAC is considered a measure of vascular aging, associated with increased risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. The relationship with noncardiovascular disease is not well defined.A total of 6,814 participants from 6 MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) field centers were followed for a median of 10.2 years. Modified Cox proportional hazards ratios accounting for the competing risk of fatal coronary heart disease were calculated for new diagnoses of cancer, pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), deep vein thrombosis/pulmonary embolism, hip fracture, and dementia. Analyses were adjusted for age; sex; race; socioeconomic status; health insurance status; body mass index; physical activity; diet; tobacco use; number of medications used; systolic and diastolic blood pressure; total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; antihypertensive, aspirin, and cholesterol medication; and diabetes. The outcome was first incident noncardiovascular disease diagnosis.Compared with those with CAC = 0, those with CAC >400 had an increased hazard of cancer (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.18 to 1.99), CKD (HR: 1.70; 95% CI: 1.21 to 2.39), pneumonia (HR: 1.97; 95% CI: 1.37 to 2.82), COPD (HR: 2.71; 95% CI: 1.60 to 4.57), and hip fracture (HR: 4.29; 95% CI: 1.47 to 12.50). CAC >400 was not associated with dementia or deep vein thrombosis/pulmonary embolism. Those with CAC = 0 had decreased risk of cancer (HR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.92), CKD (HR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.60 to 0.98), COPD (HR: 0.61; 95% CI: 0.40 to 0.91), and hip fracture (HR: 0.31; 95% CI: 0.14 to 0.70) compared to those with CAC >0. CAC = 0 was not associated with less pneumonia, dementia, or deep vein thrombosis/pulmonary embolism. The results were attenuated, but remained significant, after removing participants developing interim nonfatal coronary heart disease.Participants with elevated CAC were at increased risk of cancer, CKD, COPD, and hip fractures. Those with CAC = 0 are less likely to develop common age-related comorbid conditions, and represent a unique population of "healthy agers."

Dataset Information

General Cardiovascular Risk Profile identifies advanced coronary artery calcium and is improved by family history: the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis.

Publications

General Cardiovascular Risk Profile identifies advanced coronary artery calcium and is improved by family history: the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis.

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