Dataset Information

Estimating the impact of plasma HIV-1 RNA reductions on heterosexual HIV-1 transmission risk.

ABSTRACT: The risk of sexual transmission of HIV-1 is strongly associated with the level of HIV-1 RNA in plasma making reduction in HIV-1 plasma levels an important target for HIV-1 prevention interventions. A quantitative understanding of the relationship of plasma HIV-1 RNA and HIV-1 transmission risk could help predict the impact of candidate HIV-1 prevention interventions that operate by reducing plasma HIV-1 levels, such as antiretroviral therapy (ART), therapeutic vaccines, and other non-ART interventions.We use prospective data collected from 2004 to 2008 in East and Southern African HIV-1 serodiscordant couples to model the relationship of plasma HIV-1 RNA levels and heterosexual transmission risk with confirmation of HIV-1 transmission events by HIV-1 sequencing. The model is based on follow-up of 3381 HIV-1 serodiscordant couples over 5017 person-years encompassing 108 genetically-linked HIV-1 transmission events. HIV-1 transmission risk was 2.27 per 100 person-years with a log-linear relationship to log(10) plasma HIV-1 RNA. The model predicts that a decrease in average plasma HIV-1 RNA of 0.74 log(10) copies/mL (95% CI 0.60 to 0.97) reduces heterosexual transmission risk by 50%, regardless of the average starting plasma HIV-1 level in the population and independent of other HIV-1-related population characteristics. In a simulated population with a similar plasma HIV-1 RNA distribution the model estimates that 90% of overall HIV-1 infections averted by a 0.74 copies/mL reduction in plasma HIV-1 RNA could be achieved by targeting this reduction to the 58% of the cohort with plasma HIV-1 levels ?4 log(10) copies/mL.This log-linear model of plasma HIV-1 levels and risk of sexual HIV-1 transmission may help estimate the impact on HIV-1 transmission and infections averted from candidate interventions that reduce plasma HIV-1 RNA levels.

SUBMITTER: Lingappa JR

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2938354 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimating the impact of plasma HIV-1 RNA reductions on heterosexual HIV-1 transmission risk.

Lingappa Jairam R JR Hughes James P JP Wang Richard S RS Baeten Jared M JM Celum Connie C Gray Glenda E GE Stevens Wendy S WS Donnell Deborah D Campbell Mary S MS Farquhar Carey C Essex M M Mullins James I JI Coombs Robert W RW Rees Helen H Corey Lawrence L Wald Anna A

PloS one 20100913 9

<h4>Background</h4>The risk of sexual transmission of HIV-1 is strongly associated with the level of HIV-1 RNA in plasma making reduction in HIV-1 plasma levels an important target for HIV-1 prevention interventions. A quantitative understanding of the relationship of plasma HIV-1 RNA and HIV-1 transmission risk could help predict the impact of candidate HIV-1 prevention interventions that operate by reducing plasma HIV-1 levels, such as antiretroviral therapy (ART), therapeutic vaccines, and ot ...[more]

PMID: 20856886

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Project description:BackgroundTargeted interventions (TIs) have been a major strategy for HIV prevention in India. We evaluated the impact of TIs on HIV prevalence in high HIV prevalence southern states (Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra).MethodsA quasi-experimental approach was used to retrospectively compare changes in HIV prevalence according to the intensity of targeted intervention implementation. Condom gap (number of condoms required minus condoms supplied by TIs) was used as an indicator of TI intensity. Annual average number of commercial sex acts per female sex worker (FSW) reported in Behavioral Surveillance Survey was multiplied by the estimated number of FSWs in each district to calculate annual requirement of condoms in the district. Data of condoms supplied by TIs from 1995 to 2008 was obtained from program records. Districts in each state were ranked into quartiles based on the TI intensity. Primary data of HIV Sentinel Surveillance was analyzed to calculate HIV prevalence reductions in each successive year taking 2001 as reference year according to the quartiles of TI intensity districts using generalized linear model with logit link and binomial distribution after adjusting for age, education, and place of residence (urban or rural).ResultsIn the high HIV prevalence southern states, the number of TI projects for FSWs increased from 5 to 310 between 1995 and 2008. In high TI intensity quartile districts (n = 30), 186 condoms per FSW/year were distributed through TIs as compared to 45 condoms/FSW/year in the low TI intensity districts (n = 29). Behavioral surveillance indicated significant rise in condom use from 2001 to 2009. Among FSWs consistent condom use with last paying clients increased from 58.6% to 83.7% (p < 0.001), and among men of reproductive age, the condom use during sex with non-regular partner increased from 51.7% to 68.6% (p < 0.001). A significant decline in HIV and syphilis prevalence has occurred in high prevalence southern states among FSWs and young antenatal women. Among young (15-24 years) antenatal clinic attendees significant decline was observed in HIV prevalence from 2001 to 2008 (OR = 0.42, 95% CI 0.28-0.62) in high TI intensity districts whereas in low TI intensity districts the change was not significant (OR = 1.01, 95% CI 0.67-1.5).ConclusionTargeted interventions are associated with HIV prevalence decline.

Project description:BackgroundThe core-group theory of sexually transmitted infections suggests that targeting prevention to high-risk groups (HRG) could be very effective. We aimed to quantify the contribution of heterosexual HRGs and the potential impact of focused interventions to HIV transmission in the wider community.MethodsWe systematically identified studies published between 1980 and 2011. Studies were included if they used dynamical models of heterosexual HIV transmission, incorporated behavioural heterogeneity in risk, and provided at least one of the following primary estimates in the wider community (a) the population attributable fraction (PAF) of HIV infections due to HRGs, or (b) the number per capita or fraction of HIV infections averted, or change in HIV prevalence/incidence due to focused interventions.FindingsOf 267 selected articles, 22 were included. Four studies measured the PAF, and 20 studies measured intervention impact across 265 scenarios. In low-prevalence epidemics (≤5% HIV prevalence), the estimated impact of sex-worker interventions in the absence of risk compensation included: 6-100% infections averted; 0.9-6.2 HIV infections averted per 100,000 adults; 11-94% and 4-47% relative reduction in prevalence and incidence respectively. In high-prevalence epidemics (>5% HIV prevalence), sex-worker interventions were estimated to avert 6.8-40% of HIV infections and up to 564 HIV infections per 100,000 adults, and reduce HIV prevalence and incidence by 13-27% and 2-14% respectively. In both types of epidemics, greater heterogeneity in HIV risk was associated with a larger impact on the fraction of HIV infections averted and relative reduction in HIV incidence.ConclusionFocused interventions, as estimated by mathematical models, have the potential to reduce HIV transmission in the wider community across low- and high-prevalence regions. However, considerable variability exists in estimated impact, suggesting that a targeted approach to HIV prevention should be tailored to local epidemiological context.

Project description:BackgroundStudies have demonstrated the role of ulcerative and non-ulcerative sexually transmitted infections (STI) in HIV transmission/acquisition risk; less is understood about the role of non-specific inflammatory genital abnormalities.MethodsHIV-discordant heterosexual Zambian couples were enrolled into longitudinal follow-up (1994-2012). Multivariable models estimated the effect of genital ulcers and inflammation in both partners on time-to-HIV transmission within the couple. Population-attributable fractions (PAFs) were calculated.ResultsA total of 207 linked infections in women occurred over 2756 couple-years (7.5/100 CY) and 171 in men over 3216 CY (5.3/100 CY). Incident HIV among women was associated with a woman's non-STI genital inflammation (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.55; PAF = 8%), bilateral inguinal adenopathy (BIA; aHR = 2.33; PAF = 8%), genital ulceration (aHR = 2.08; PAF = 7%) and the man's STI genital inflammation (aHR = 3.33; PAF = 5%), BIA (aHR = 3.35; PAF = 33%) and genital ulceration (aHR = 1.49; PAF = 9%). Infection among men was associated with a man's BIA (aHR = 4.11; PAF = 22%) and genital ulceration (aHR = 3.44; PAF = 15%) as well as with the woman's non-STI genital inflammation (aHR = 1.92; PAF = 13%) and BIA (aHR = 2.76; PAF = 14%). In HIV-M+F- couples, the man being uncircumcised. with foreskin smegma. was associated with the woman's seroconversion (aHR = 3.16) relative to being circumcised. In F+M- couples, uncircumcised men with BIA had an increased hazard of seroconversion (aHR = 13.03 with smegma and 4.95 without) relative to being circumcised. Self-reporting of symptoms was low for ulcerative and non-ulcerative STIs.ConclusionsOur findings confirm the role of STIs and highlight the contribution of non-specific genital inflammation to both male-to-female and female-to-male HIV transmission/acquisition risk. Studies are needed to characterize pathogenesis of non-specific inflammation including inguinal adenopathy. A better understanding of genital practices could inform interventions.

Dataset Information

Estimating the impact of plasma HIV-1 RNA reductions on heterosexual HIV-1 transmission risk.

Publications

Estimating the impact of plasma HIV-1 RNA reductions on heterosexual HIV-1 transmission risk.

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