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Rapid emergence of free-riding behavior in new pediatric immunization programs.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Mathematical models have formalized how free-rider effects can threaten the stability of high vaccine coverage levels under established voluntary vaccination programs. However, little research has addressed the question of when free-riding begins to develop when a new vaccine is first introduced in a population. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we combine a game theoretical model of vaccinating behavior with an age-structured compartmental model to analyze rational vaccinating behavior in the first years of a universal immunization program, where a new vaccine is free to all children of a specified age. The model captures how successive birth cohorts face different epidemiological landscapes that have been shaped by the vaccinating decisions of previous birth cohorts, resulting in a strategic interaction between individuals in different birth cohorts. The model predicts a Nash equilibrium coverage level of for the first few birth cohorts under the new program. However, free-riding behavior emerges very quickly, with the Nash equilibrium vaccine coverage dropping significantly within 2-5 years after program initiation. Subsequently, a rich set of coupled dynamics between infection prevalence and vaccinating behaviors is possible, ranging from relatively stable (but reduced) coverage in later birth cohorts to wide fluctuations in vaccine coverage from one birth cohort to the next. Individual tolerance for vaccine risk also starts out at relatively high levels before dropping significantly within a few years. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These results suggest that even relatively new immunization programs can be vulnerable to drops in vaccine coverage caused by vaccine scares and exacerbated by herd immunity effects, necessitating vigilance from the start.

SUBMITTER: Bauch CT

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2939872 | biostudies-literature | 2010

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Rapid emergence of free-riding behavior in new pediatric immunization programs.

Bauch Chris T CT Bhattacharyya Samit S Ball Robert F RF

PloS one 20100915 9

<h4>Background</h4>Mathematical models have formalized how free-rider effects can threaten the stability of high vaccine coverage levels under established voluntary vaccination programs. However, little research has addressed the question of when free-riding begins to develop when a new vaccine is first introduced in a population.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>Here, we combine a game theoretical model of vaccinating behavior with an age-structured compartmental model to analyze rational ...[more]

PMID: 20856798

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Project description:BackgroundHealthcare personnel influenza immunization rates remain sub-optimal. Following multiple studies and expert consultations, the "Successful Influenza Immunization Programs for Healthcare Personnel: A Guide for Program Planners" was produced. This trial assessed the impact of the Guide with facilitation in improving healthcare personnel influenza immunization rates in Canadian healthcare organizations.MethodsA sample of 26 healthcare organizations across six Canadian provinces (ON, MB, NS, BC, SK, NL) was randomized to Intervention (n=13) or Control groups (n=13). Baseline influenza immunization rates were obtained for 2008-2009; the study groups were followed over two subsequent influenza seasons. The Intervention group received the Guide, facilitation support through workshops for managers and ongoing support. The Control groups conducted programs as usual. The Groups were compared using their reported influenza healthcare personnel influenza immunization rates and scores from a program assessment questionnaire.FindingsTwenty-six organizations agreed to participate. 35% (9/26) of sites were acute care hospitals, 19% (5/26) continuing care, long-term care organizations or nursing homes, and 46% (12/26) were mixed acute care hospitals and long-term care or regional health authorities. The median rate of influenza immunization among healthcare personnel for the Intervention group was 43%, 44%, and 51% at three points in time respectively, and in theControl group62%, 57%, and 55% respectively. No significant differences were observed between the groups at the three points in time. However, there was a 7% increase in the median rates between the Baseline Year and Year Two in the Intervention group, and a 6% decrease in the CONTROL GROUP over the same time period, which was statistically significant (0.071 versus -0.058, p < 0.001).InterpretationThis pragmatic randomized trial of the Guide with facilitation of its implementation improved healthcare personnel immunization rates, but these rates continued to be sub-optimal and below rates achievable in programs requiring personnel to be immunized.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01207518.

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Rapid emergence of free-riding behavior in new pediatric immunization programs.

Publications

Rapid emergence of free-riding behavior in new pediatric immunization programs.

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