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Prediction of disease severity in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis by gene expression profiling.

ABSTRACT: In order to test the ability of peripheral blood gene expression profiles to predict future disease severity in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA), a group of 17 patients (1 ± 0.2 years disease duration) was evaluated at baseline for gene expression profiles. Disease status was evaluated after a mean of 5 years using an index combining pain, global and recoded MHAQ scores. Unsupervised and supervised algorithms identified "predictor genes" whose combined expression levels correlated with follow-up disease severity scores. Unsupervised clustering algorithms separated patients into two branches. The only significant difference between these two groups was the disease severity score; demographic variables and medication usage were not different. Supervised T-Test analysis identified 19 "predictor genes" of future disease severity. Results were validated in an independent cohort of subjects of established RA with using Support Vector Machines and K-Nearest-Neighbor Classification. Our study demonstrates that peripheral blood gene expression profiles may be a useful tool to predict future disease severity in patients with early and established RA.

SUBMITTER: Liu Z

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2950309 | biostudies-literature | 2009 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Prediction of disease severity in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis by gene expression profiling.

Liu Zheng Z Sokka Tuulikki T Maas Kevin K Olsen Nancy J NJ Aune Thomas M TM

Human genomics and proteomics : HGP 20090427

In order to test the ability of peripheral blood gene expression profiles to predict future disease severity in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis (RA), a group of 17 patients (1 ± 0.2 years disease duration) was evaluated at baseline for gene expression profiles. Disease status was evaluated after a mean of 5 years using an index combining pain, global and recoded MHAQ scores. Unsupervised and supervised algorithms identified "predictor genes" whose combined expression levels correlated w ...[more]

PMID: 20948566

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Project description:ObjectiveApproximately 30-40% of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients who are initially started on low-dose methotrexate (MTX) will not benefit from the treatment. To date, no reliable biomarkers of MTX inefficacy in RA have been identified. The aim of this study was to analyze whole blood samples from RA patients at 2 time points (pretreatment and 4 weeks following initiation of MTX), to identify gene expression biomarkers of the MTX response.MethodsRA patients who were about to commence treatment with MTX were selected from the Rheumatoid Arthritis Medication Study. Using European League Against Rheumatism (EULAR) response criteria, 42 patients were categorized as good responders and 43 as nonresponders at 6 months following the initation of MTX treatment. Data on whole blood transcript expression were generated, and supervised machine learning methods were used to predict a EULAR nonresponse. Models in which transcript levels were included were compared to models in which clinical covariates alone (e.g., baseline disease activity, sex) were included. Gene network and ontology analysis was also performed.ResultsBased on the ratio of transcript values (i.e., the difference in log2 -transformed expression values between 4 weeks of treatment and pretreatment), a highly predictive classifier of MTX nonresponse was developed using L2-regularized logistic regression (mean ± SEM area under the receiver operating characteristic [ROC] curve [AUC] 0.78 ± 0.11). This classifier was superior to models that included clinical covariates (ROC AUC 0.63 ± 0.06). Pathway analysis of gene networks revealed significant overrepresentation of type I interferon signaling pathway genes in nonresponders at pretreatment (P = 2.8 × 10-25 ) and at 4 weeks after treatment initiation (P = 4.9 × 10-28 ).ConclusionTesting for changes in gene expression between pretreatment and 4 weeks post-treatment initiation may provide an early classifier of the MTX treatment response in RA patients who are unlikely to benefit from MTX over 6 months. Such patients should, therefore, have their treatment escalated more rapidly, which would thus potentially impact treatment pathways. These findings emphasize the importance of a role for early treatment biomarker monitoring in RA patients started on MTX.

Dataset Information

Prediction of disease severity in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis by gene expression profiling.

Publications

Prediction of disease severity in patients with early rheumatoid arthritis by gene expression profiling.

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