Dataset Information

Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth.

Methodology/principal findings

We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort.

Conclusions/significance

Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.

SUBMITTER: Devenish Nelson ES

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2963614 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

Devenish Nelson Eleanor S ES Harris Stephen S Soulsbury Carl D CD Richards Shane A SA Stephens Philip A PA

PloS one 20101025 10

<h4>Background</h4>Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth.<h4>Methodology/principal findings</h4>We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining ...[more]

PMID: 21049049

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Project description:BACKGROUND: Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (lambda) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of lambda-Jensen's Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of lambda due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of lambda. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating lambda for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of lambda with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.

Project description:In the analysis of networks we frequently require the statistical significance of some network statistic, such as measures of similarity for the properties of interacting nodes. The structure of the network may introduce dependencies among the nodes and it will in general be necessary to account for these dependencies in the statistical analysis. To this end we require some form of Null model of the network: generally rewired replicates of the network are generated which preserve only the degree (number of interactions) of each node. We show that this can fail to capture important features of network structure, and may result in unrealistic significance levels, when potentially confounding additional information is available.We present a new network resampling Null model which takes into account the degree sequence as well as available biological annotations. Using gene ontology information as an illustration we show how this information can be accounted for in the resampling approach, and the impact such information has on the assessment of statistical significance of correlations and motif-abundances in the Saccharomyces cerevisiae protein interaction network. An algorithm, GOcardShuffle, is introduced to allow for the efficient construction of an improved Null model for network data.We use the protein interaction network of S. cerevisiae; correlations between the evolutionary rates and expression levels of interacting proteins and their statistical significance were assessed for Null models which condition on different aspects of the available data. The novel GOcardShuffle approach results in a Null model for annotated network data which appears better to describe the properties of real biological networks.An improved statistical approach for the statistical analysis of biological network data, which conditions on the available biological information, leads to qualitatively different results compared to approaches which ignore such annotations. In particular we demonstrate the effects of the biological organization of the network can be sufficient to explain the observed similarity of interacting proteins.

Dataset Information

Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

Background

Methodology/principal findings

Conclusions/significance

Publications

Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters.

Similar Datasets

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