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Forecasting potential global environmental costs of livestock production 2000-2050.

ABSTRACT: Food systems--in particular, livestock production--are key drivers of environmental change. Here, we compare the contributions of the global livestock sector in 2000 with estimated contributions of this sector in 2050 to three important environmental concerns: climate change, reactive nitrogen mobilization, and appropriation of plant biomass at planetary scales. Because environmental sustainability ultimately requires that human activities as a whole respect critical thresholds in each of these domains, we quantify the extent to which current and future livestock production contributes to published estimates of sustainability thresholds at projected production levels and under several alternative endpoint scenarios intended to illustrate the potential range of impacts associated with dietary choice. We suggest that, by 2050, the livestock sector alone may either occupy the majority of, or significantly overshoot, recently published estimates of humanity's "safe operating space" in each of these domains. In light of the magnitude of estimated impacts relative to these proposed (albeit uncertain) sustainability boundary conditions, we suggest that reining in growth of this sector should be prioritized in environmental governance.

SUBMITTER: Pelletier N

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2972962 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Forecasting potential global environmental costs of livestock production 2000-2050.

Pelletier Nathan N Tyedmers Peter P

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20101004 43

Food systems--in particular, livestock production--are key drivers of environmental change. Here, we compare the contributions of the global livestock sector in 2000 with estimated contributions of this sector in 2050 to three important environmental concerns: climate change, reactive nitrogen mobilization, and appropriation of plant biomass at planetary scales. Because environmental sustainability ultimately requires that human activities as a whole respect critical thresholds in each of these ...[more]

PMID: 20921375

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Project description:PurposeAmmonia (NH3) production is an energy-intensive process that is concentrated in a few countries at large-scale plants, mainly using the Haber-Bosch (HB) process. Local plants next to farmers can reduce environmental impacts, as well as reduce storage, shortage risks, and price volatility of fertilisers. Since local NH3 production is not cost-effective, we analyse how internalisation of environmental impacts into economic analyses could help to promote novel technologies for NH3 synthesis when supplied with renewable energy.MethodsMini-HB plants working at high pressure and temperature, as well as novel alternatives based on plasma reactors working at ambient conditions and using electricity from renewable sources, have been recently proposed for decentralised NH3 production. To evaluate the environmental performances of these alternative and traditional NH3 pathways, a life cycle assessment was performed to quantify the reduced emissions in each production process and the impacts of by-product utilisation, such as steam, oxygen, or carbon black. Different scales of storage and transportation, fuelled by traditional energy sources, were modelled to quantify the impacts of the simplified NH3 supply chains. A review of monetary valuation coefficients was performed to internalise the life cycle environmental impacts into the techno-economic analyses of NH3 production in Australia.Results and discussionMost of the estimated environmental costs were due to the carbon emissions of conventional plants and thermal plasma plants because of the use of fossil-based electricity. However, the high external costs associated with the photochemical oxidant formation and particulate matter affected the thermal plasma and non-thermal plasma (NTP) plants, costing in total 9,500 and 4,200 $/t NH3, respectively, due to the impacts of solar panels manufacturing. In contrast, electrolyser-HB plants obtained rates of 114 $/t NH3 because of the high energy efficiency and oxygen sales. In the future scenario for NTP-based plants, this alternative could also be competitive with rates of 222 $/t NH3. Additionally, the estimated total external costs for the conventional NH3 industry in Australia amounted to about US$5 billion per year.ConclusionsElectrolyser-HB plants could be cost-effective in the short term due to the energy efficiency of HB processes. However, the HB process has reached its efficiency limits, while the NTP process still has room for improvement, as well as its production costs are lower at smaller scales. In addition, if monetised environmental costs are analysed for a whole industry, public administrations could be prompted to invest the expected savings in the promotion of these novel technologies.Supplementary informationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11367-023-02187-5.

Project description:BackgroundThe global burden of dementia is increasing. As diagnosis and treatment rates increase and populations grow and age, additional diagnosed cases will present a challenge to healthcare systems globally. Even modelled estimates of the current and future healthcare spending attributable to dementia are valuable for decision makers and advocates to prepare for growing demand.MethodsWe modelled healthcare spending attributable to dementia from 2000 to 2019 and expected estimated future spending from 2020 to 2050 under multiple scenarios. Data were from the Global Burden of Diseases 2019 study and from two systematic literature reviews. We used meta-regression to estimate the fraction of dementia spending that is attributable to dementia for those receiving nursing home-based care and for those receiving community-based care. We used spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression to account for data missingness and model diagnosis and treatment rates, nursing home-based care and community-based care rates, and unit costs for the many countries without their own underlying estimates. Projections of future spending estimate a baseline scenario from 2020 to 2050 based on ongoing growth. Alternative scenarios assessed faster growth rates for dementia diagnosis and treatment rates, nursing home-based care, and healthcare costs. All spending is reported in 2019 United States dollars or 2019 purchasing-power parity-adjusted dollars.FindingsBased on observed and modelled inputs, we estimated that global spending on dementia increased by 4.5% (95% uncertainty interval: 3.4-5.4%) annually from 2000 to 2019, reaching $263 billion (95% uncertainty interval [UI] $199- $333) attributable to dementia in 2019. We estimated total healthcare spending on patients with dementia was $594 billion (95% UI $457-$843). Under the baseline scenario, we estimated that attributable dementia spending will reach $1.6 trillion (95% UI $0.9-$2.6) by 2050. We project it will represent 11% (95% UI 6-18%) of all expected health spending, although it could be as high as 17% (95% UI 10-26%) under alternative scenarios.InterpretationHealth systems will experience increases in the burden of dementia in the near future. These modelled direct cost estimates, built from a relatively small set of data and linear time trends, highlight the magnitude of health system resources expected to be used to provide care and ensure sufficient and adequate resources for aging populations and their caretakers. More data are needed to corroborate these important trends.

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Dataset Information

Forecasting potential global environmental costs of livestock production 2000-2050.

Publications

Forecasting potential global environmental costs of livestock production 2000-2050.

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