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Accumulation of driver and passenger mutations during tumor progression.

ABSTRACT: Major efforts to sequence cancer genomes are now occurring throughout the world. Though the emerging data from these studies are illuminating, their reconciliation with epidemiologic and clinical observations poses a major challenge. In the current study, we provide a mathematical model that begins to address this challenge. We model tumors as a discrete time branching process that starts with a single driver mutation and proceeds as each new driver mutation leads to a slightly increased rate of clonal expansion. Using the model, we observe tremendous variation in the rate of tumor development-providing an understanding of the heterogeneity in tumor sizes and development times that have been observed by epidemiologists and clinicians. Furthermore, the model provides a simple formula for the number of driver mutations as a function of the total number of mutations in the tumor. Finally, when applied to recent experimental data, the model allows us to calculate the actual selective advantage provided by typical somatic mutations in human tumors in situ. This selective advantage is surprisingly small--0.004 ± 0.0004--and has major implications for experimental cancer research.

SUBMITTER: Bozic I

PROVIDER: S-EPMC2972991 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Accumulation of driver and passenger mutations during tumor progression.

Bozic Ivana I Antal Tibor T Ohtsuki Hisashi H Carter Hannah H Kim Dewey D Chen Sining S Karchin Rachel R Kinzler Kenneth W KW Vogelstein Bert B Nowak Martin A MA

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20100927 43

Major efforts to sequence cancer genomes are now occurring throughout the world. Though the emerging data from these studies are illuminating, their reconciliation with epidemiologic and clinical observations poses a major challenge. In the current study, we provide a mathematical model that begins to address this challenge. We model tumors as a discrete time branching process that starts with a single driver mutation and proceeds as each new driver mutation leads to a slightly increased rate of ...[more]

PMID: 20876136

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Project description:MotivationNext-generation sequencing technologies have accelerated the discovery of single nucleotide variants in the human genome, stimulating the development of predictors for classifying which of these variants are likely functional in disease, and which neutral. Recently, we proposed CScape, a method for discriminating between cancer driver mutations and presumed benign variants. For the neutral class, this method relied on benign germline variants found in the 1000 Genomes Project database. Discrimination could, therefore, be influenced by the distinction of germline versus somatic, rather than neutral versus disease driver. This motivates this article in which we consider predictive discrimination between recurrent and rare somatic single point mutations based solely on using cancer data, and the distinction between these two somatic classes and germline single point mutations.ResultsFor somatic point mutations in coding and non-coding regions of the genome, we propose CScape-somatic, an integrative classifier for predictively discriminating between recurrent and rare variants in the human cancer genome. In this study, we use purely cancer genome data and investigate the distinction between minimal occurrence and significantly recurrent somatic single point mutations in the human cancer genome. We show that this type of predictive distinction can give novel insight, and may deliver more meaningful prediction in both coding and non-coding regions of the cancer genome. Tested on somatic mutations, CScape-somatic outperforms alternative methods, reaching 74% balanced accuracy in coding regions and 69% in non-coding regions, whereas even higher accuracy may be achieved using thresholds to isolate high-confidence predictions.Availability and implementationPredictions and software are available at http://CScape-somatic.biocompute.org.uk/.Contactmark.f.rogers.phd@gmail.com or C.Campbell@bristol.ac.uk.Supplementary informationSupplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Project description:BackgroundAPOBEC-driven mutagenesis and functional positive selection of mutated genes may synergistically drive the higher frequency of some hotspot driver mutations compared to other mutations within the same gene, as we reported for FGFR3 S249C. Only a few APOBEC-associated driver hotspot mutations have been identified in bladder cancer (BCa). Here, we systematically looked for and characterised APOBEC-associated hotspots in BCa.MethodsWe analysed 602 published exome-sequenced BCas, for part of which gene expression data were also available. APOBEC-associated hotspots were identified by motif-mapping, mutation signature fitting and APOBEC-mediated mutagenesis comparison. Joint analysis of DNA hairpin stability and gene expression was performed to predict driver or passenger hotspots. Aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AhR) activity was calculated based on its target genes expression. Effects of AhR knockout/inhibition on BCa cell viability were analysed.ResultsWe established a panel of 44 APOBEC-associated hotspot mutations in BCa, which accounted for about half of the hotspot mutations. Fourteen of them overlapped with the hotspots found in other cancer types with high APOBEC activity. They mostly occurred in the DNA lagging-strand templates and the loop of DNA hairpins. APOBEC-associated hotspots presented systematically a higher prevalence than the other mutations within each APOBEC-target gene, independently of their functional impact. A combined analysis of DNA loop stability and gene expression allowed to distinguish known passenger from known driver hotspot mutations in BCa, including loss-of-function mutations affecting tumour suppressor genes, and to predict new candidate drivers, such as AHR Q383H. We further characterised AHR Q383H as an activating driver mutation associated with high AhR activity in luminal tumours. High AhR activity was also found in tumours presenting amplifications of AHR and its co-receptor ARNT. We finally showed that BCa cells presenting those different genetic alterations were sensitive to AhR inhibition.ConclusionsOur study identified novel potential drivers within APOBEC-associated hotspot mutations in BCa reinforcing the importance of APOBEC mutagenesis in BCa. It could allow a better understanding of BCa biology and aetiology and have clinical implications such as AhR as a potential therapeutic target. Our results also challenge the dogma that all hotspot mutations are drivers and mostly gain-of-function mutations affecting oncogenes.

Dataset Information

Accumulation of driver and passenger mutations during tumor progression.

Publications

Accumulation of driver and passenger mutations during tumor progression.

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