Dataset Information

Uncertainty in the tail of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic in the UK.

ABSTRACT: Despite low case numbers the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic poses many challenges for public health planning due to remaining uncertainties in disease biology and transmission routes. We develop a stochastic model for variant CJD transmission, taking into account the known transmission routes (food and red-cell transfusion) to assess the remaining uncertainty in the epidemic. We use Bayesian methods to obtain scenarios consistent with current data. Our results show a potentially long but uncertain tail in the epidemic, with a peak annual incidence of around 11 cases, but the 95% credibility interval between 1 and 65 cases. These cases are predicted to be due to past food-borne transmissions occurring in previously mostly unaffected genotypes and to transmissions via blood transfusion in all genotypes. However, we also show that the latter are unlikely to be identifiable as transfusion-associated cases by case-linking. Regardless of the numbers of future cases, even in the absence of any further control measures, we do not find any self-sustaining epidemics.

SUBMITTER: Garske T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3009744 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Uncertainty in the tail of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic in the UK.

Garske Tini T Ghani Azra C AC

PloS one 20101223 12

Despite low case numbers the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic poses many challenges for public health planning due to remaining uncertainties in disease biology and transmission routes. We develop a stochastic model for variant CJD transmission, taking into account the known transmission routes (food and red-cell transfusion) to assess the remaining uncertainty in the epidemic. We use Bayesian methods to obtain scenarios consistent with current data. Our results show a potentially long ...[more]

PMID: 21203419

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Project description:BACKGROUND:Prions, the infectious agents responsible for transmissible spongiform encephalopathies, consist mainly of the misfolded prion protein (PrP(Sc)). The unique mechanism of transmission and the appearance of a variant form of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, which has been linked to consumption of prion-contaminated cattle meat, have raised concerns about public health. Evidence suggests that variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease prions circulate in body fluids from people in whom the disease is silently incubating. METHODS:To investigate whether PrP(Sc) can be detected in the urine of patients with variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, we used the protein misfolding cyclic amplification (PMCA) technique to amplify minute quantities of PrP(Sc), enabling highly sensitive detection of the protein. We analyzed urine samples from several patients with various transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (variant and sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and genetic forms of prion disease), patients with other degenerative or nondegenerative neurologic disorders, and healthy persons. RESULTS:PrP(Sc) was detectable only in the urine of patients with variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and had the typical electrophoretic profile associated with this disease. PrP(Sc) was detected in 13 of 14 urine samples obtained from patients with variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease and in none of the 224 urine samples obtained from patients with other neurologic diseases and from healthy controls, resulting in an estimated sensitivity of 92.9% (95% confidence interval [CI], 66.1 to 99.8) and a specificity of 100.0% (95% CI, 98.4 to 100.0). The PrP(Sc) concentration in urine calculated by means of quantitative PMCA was estimated at 1×10(-16) g per milliliter, or 3×10(-21) mol per milliliter, which extrapolates to approximately 40 to 100 oligomeric particles of PrP(Sc) per milliliter of urine. CONCLUSIONS:Urine samples obtained from patients with variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease contained minute quantities of PrP(Sc). (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).

Dataset Information

Uncertainty in the tail of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic in the UK.

Publications

Uncertainty in the tail of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic in the UK.

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