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HIV transmission by stage of infection and pattern of sexual partnerships.

ABSTRACT: Most model analyses examining the role of primary HIV infection in the HIV epidemic ignore the fact that HIV is often transmitted through long-term, concurrent sexual partnerships. We sought to understand how duration and concurrency of sexual partnerships affect the role of transmissions during primary HIV infection.We constructed a stochastic individual-based model of HIV transmission in a homogeneous population where partnerships form and dissolve. Using observed contagiousness by stage of HIV infection, the fraction of transmissions during primary HIV infection at equilibrium was examined across varying partnership durations and concurrencies.The fraction of transmissions during primary HIV infection has a U-shaped relationship with partnership duration. The fraction drops with increasing partnership duration for partnerships with shorter average duration but rises for partnerships with longer average duration. Partnership concurrency modifies this relationship. The fraction of transmissions during primary HIV infection increases with increasing partnership concurrency for partnerships with shorter average duration, but decreases for partnerships with longer average duration.Partnership patterns strongly influence the transmission of HIV and do so differentially by stage of infection. Dynamic partnerships need to be taken into account to make a robust inference on the role of different stages of HIV infection.

SUBMITTER: Kim JH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3018805 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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HIV transmission by stage of infection and pattern of sexual partnerships.

Kim Jong-Hoon JH Riolo Rick L RL Koopman James S JS

Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.) 20100901 5

<h4>Background</h4>Most model analyses examining the role of primary HIV infection in the HIV epidemic ignore the fact that HIV is often transmitted through long-term, concurrent sexual partnerships. We sought to understand how duration and concurrency of sexual partnerships affect the role of transmissions during primary HIV infection.<h4>Methods</h4>We constructed a stochastic individual-based model of HIV transmission in a homogeneous population where partnerships form and dissolve. Using obs ...[more]

PMID: 20571409

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Project description:BackgroundThe structure of sexual contact networks plays a key role in the epidemiology of sexually transmitted infections, and their reconstruction from interview data has provided valuable insights into the spread of infection. For HIV, the long period of infectivity has made the interpretation of contact networks more difficult, and major discrepancies have been observed between the contact network and the transmission network revealed by viral phylogenetics. The high rate of HIV evolution in principle allows for detailed reconstruction of links between virus from different individuals, but often sampling has been too sparse to describe the structure of the transmission network. The aim of this study was to analyze a high-density sample of an HIV-infected population using recently developed techniques in phylogenetics to infer the short-term dynamics of the epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM).Methods and findingsSequences of the protease and reverse transcriptase coding regions from 2,126 patients, predominantly MSM, from London were compared: 402 of these showed a close match to at least one other subtype B sequence. Nine large clusters were identified on the basis of genetic distance; all were confirmed by Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC) phylogenetic analysis. Overall, 25% of individuals with a close match with one sequence are linked to 10 or more others. Dated phylogenies of the clusters using a relaxed clock indicated that 65% of the transmissions within clusters took place between 1995 and 2000, and 25% occurred within 6 mo after infection. The likelihood that not all members of the clusters have been identified renders the latter observation conservative.ConclusionsReconstruction of the HIV transmission network using a dated phylogeny approach has revealed the HIV epidemic among MSM in London to have been episodic, with evidence of multiple clusters of transmissions dating to the late 1990s, a period when HIV prevalence is known to have doubled in this population. The quantitative description of the transmission dynamics among MSM will be important for parameterization of epidemiological models and in designing intervention strategies.

Dataset Information

HIV transmission by stage of infection and pattern of sexual partnerships.

Publications

HIV transmission by stage of infection and pattern of sexual partnerships.

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