Dataset Information

Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching.

Methodology/principal findings

Overall, we found MaxEnt models to be very sensitive to modeling choices and selection of input localities and background regions. As used, MaxEnt invoked minimal protections against data dredging, multi-collinearity of explanatory axes, and overfitting. As used, MaxEnt endeavored to identify a single ideal climate, whereas different climatic considerations may determine range boundaries in different parts of the native range. MaxEnt was extremely sensitive to both the choice of background locations for the python, and to selection of presence points: inclusion of just four erroneous localities was responsible for Pyron et al.'s conclusion that no additional portions of the U.S. mainland were at risk of python invasion. When used with default settings, MaxEnt overfit the realized climate space, identifying models with about 60 parameters, about five times the number of parameters justifiable when optimized on the basis of Akaike's Information Criterion.

Conclusions/significance

When used with default settings, MaxEnt may not be an appropriate vehicle for identifying all sites at risk of colonization. Model instability and dearth of protections against overfitting, multi-collinearity, and data dredging may combine with a failure to distinguish fundamental from realized climate envelopes to produce models of limited utility. A priori identification of biologically realistic model structure, combined with computational protections against these statistical problems, may produce more robust models of invasion risk.

SUBMITTER: Rodda GH

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3036589 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders.

Rodda Gordon H GH Jarnevich Catherine S CS Reed Robert N RN

PloS one 20110209 2

<h4>Background</h4>Species distribution models are often used to characterize a species' native range climate, so as to identify sites elsewhere in the world that may be climatically similar and therefore at risk of invasion by the species. This endeavor provoked intense public controversy over recent attempts to model areas at risk of invasion by the Indian Python (Python molurus). We evaluated a number of MaxEnt models on this species to assess MaxEnt's utility for vertebrate climate matching. ...[more]

PMID: 21347411

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Project description:Background and aimsDisplacement of native plant species by non-native invaders may result from differences in their carbon economy, yet little is known regarding how variation in leaf traits influences native-invader dynamics across climate gradients. In Hawaii, one of the most heavily invaded biodiversity hotspots in the world, strong spatial variation in climate results from the complex topography, which underlies variation in traits that probably drives shifts in species interactions.MethodsUsing one of the most comprehensive trait data sets for Hawaii to date (91 species and four islands), we determined the extent and sources of variation (climate, species and species origin) in leaf traits, and used mixed models to examine differences between natives and non-native invasives.Key resultsWe detected significant differences in trait means, such that invasives were more resource acquisitive than natives over most of the climate gradients. However, we also detected trait convergence and a rank reversal (natives more resource acquisitive than invasives) in a sub-set of conditions. There was significant intraspecific trait variation (ITV) in leaf traits of natives and invasives, although invasives expressed significantly greater ITV than natives in water loss and photosynthesis. Species accounted for more trait variation than did climate for invasives, while the reverse was true for natives. Incorporating this climate-driven trait variation significantly improved the fit of models that compared natives and invasives. Lastly, in invasives, ITV was most strongly explained by spatial heterogeneity in moisture, whereas solar energy explains more ITV in natives.ConclusionsOur results indicate that trait expression and ITV vary significantly between natives and invasives, and that this is mediated by climate. These findings suggest that although natives and invasives are functionally similar at the regional scale, invader success at local scales is contingent on climate.

Project description:Differences in morphological or ecological traits expressed by exotic species between their native and non-native ranges are often interpreted as evidence for adaptation to new conditions in the non-native ranges. In turn this adaptation is often hypothesized to contribute to the successful invasion of these species. There is good evidence for rapid evolution by many exotic invasives, but the extent to which these evolutionary changes actually drive invasiveness is unclear. One approach to resolving the relationship between adaptive responses and successful invasion is to compare traits between populations from the native and non-native ranges for both exotic invaders and congeners that are exotic but not invasive. We compared a suite of morphological traits that are commonly tested in the literature in the context of invasion for three very closely related species of Centaurea, all of which are sympatric in the same native and non-native ranges in Europe and North America. Of these, C. solstitialis is highly invasive whereas C. calcitrapa and C. sulphurea are not. For all three species, plants from non-native populations showed similar shifts in key traits that have been identified in other studies as important putative adaptive responses to post-introduction invasion. For example, for all three species plants from populations in non-native ranges were (i) larger and (ii) produced seeds that germinated at higher rates. In fact, the non-invasive C. calcitrapa showed the strongest trait shift between ranges. Centaurea solstitialis was the only species for which plants from the non-native range increased allocation to defensive spines, and allocated proportionally less resources to reproduction, patterns contrary to what would be predicted by theory and other empirical studies to enhance invasion. Our results suggest caution when interpreting the commonly observed increase in size and reproductive capacity as factors that cause exotics to become invaders.

Dataset Information

Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders.

Background

Methodology/principal findings

Conclusions/significance

Publications

Challenges in identifying sites climatically matched to the native ranges of animal invaders.

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