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A novel sequence-based antigenic distance measure for H1N1, with application to vaccine effectiveness and the selection of vaccine strains.

ABSTRACT: H1N1 influenza causes substantial seasonal illness and was the subtype of the 2009 influenza pandemic. Precise measures of antigenic distance between the vaccine and circulating virus strains help researchers design influenza vaccines with high vaccine effectiveness. We here introduce a sequence-based method to predict vaccine effectiveness in humans. Historical epidemiological data show that this sequence-based method is as predictive of vaccine effectiveness as hemagglutination inhibition assay data from ferret animal model studies. Interestingly, the expected vaccine effectiveness is greater against H1N1 than H3N2, suggesting a stronger immune response against H1N1 than H3N2. The evolution rate of hemagglutinin in H1N1 is also shown to be greater than that in H3N2, presumably due to greater immune selection pressure.

SUBMITTER: Pan K

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3038458 | biostudies-literature | 2011 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A novel sequence-based antigenic distance measure for H1N1, with application to vaccine effectiveness and the selection of vaccine strains.

Pan Keyao K Subieta Krystina C KC Deem Michael W MW

Protein engineering, design & selection : PEDS 20101130 3

H1N1 influenza causes substantial seasonal illness and was the subtype of the 2009 influenza pandemic. Precise measures of antigenic distance between the vaccine and circulating virus strains help researchers design influenza vaccines with high vaccine effectiveness. We here introduce a sequence-based method to predict vaccine effectiveness in humans. Historical epidemiological data show that this sequence-based method is as predictive of vaccine effectiveness as hemagglutination inhibition assa ...[more]

PMID: 21123189

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Project description:The ease at which influenza virus sequence data can be used to estimate antigenic relationships between strains and the existence of databases containing sequence data for hundreds of thousands influenza strains make sequence-based antigenic distance estimates an attractive approach to researchers. Antigenic mismatch between circulating strains and vaccine strains results in significantly decreased vaccine effectiveness. Furthermore, antigenic relatedness between the vaccine strain and the strains an individual was originally primed with can affect the cross-reactivity of the antibody response. Thus, understanding the antigenic relationships between influenza viruses that have circulated is important to both vaccinologists and immunologists.Here we develop a method of mapping antigenic relationships between influenza virus stains using a sequence-based antigenic distance approach (SBM). We used a modified version of the p-all-epitope sequence-based antigenic distance calculation, which determines the antigenic relatedness between strains using influenza hemagglutinin (HA) genetic coding sequence data and provide experimental validation of the p-all-epitope calculation. We calculated the antigenic distance between 4838 H1N1 viruses isolated from infected humans between 1918 and 2016. We demonstrate, for the first time, that sequence-based antigenic distances of H1N1 Influenza viruses can be accurately represented in 2-dimenstional antigenic cartography using classic multidimensional scaling. Additionally, the model correctly predicted decreases in cross-reactive antibody levels with 87% accuracy and was highly reproducible with even when small numbers of sequences were used.This work provides a highly accurate and precise bioinformatics tool that can be used to assess immune risk as well as design optimized vaccination strategies. SBM accurately estimated the antigenic relationship between strains using HA sequence data. Antigenic maps of H1N1 virus strains reveal that strains cluster antigenically similar to what has been reported for H3N2 viruses. Furthermore, we demonstrated that genetic variation differs across antigenic sites and discuss the implications.

Project description:BackgroundIn 2009, a novel influenza vaccine was distributed worldwide to combat the H1N1 influenza "swine flu" pandemic. However, antibodies induced by the vaccine display differences in their specificity and cross-reactivity dependent on pre-existing immunity. Here, we present a computational model that can capture the effect of pre-existing immunity on influenza vaccine responses. The model predicts the region of the virus hemagglutinin (HA) protein targeted by antibodies after vaccination as well as the level of cross-reactivity induced by the vaccine. We tested our model by simulating a scenario similar to the 2009 pandemic vaccine and compared the results to antibody binding data obtained from human subjects vaccinated with the monovalent 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccine.ResultsWe found that both specificity and cross-reactivity of the antibodies induced by the 2009 H1N1 influenza HA protein were affected by the viral strain the individual was originally exposed. Specifically, the level of antigenic relatedness between the original exposure HA antigen and the 2009 HA protein affected antigenic-site immunodominance. Moreover, antibody cross-reactivity was increased when the individual's pre-existing immunity was specific to an HA protein antigenically distinct from the 2009 pandemic strain. Comparison of simulation data with antibody binding data from human serum samples demonstrated qualitative and quantitative similarities between the model and real-life immune responses to the 2009 vaccine.ConclusionWe provide a novel method to evaluate expected outcomes in antibody specificity and cross-reactivity after influenza vaccination in individuals with different influenza HA antigen exposure histories. The model produced similar outcomes as what has been previously reported in humans after receiving the 2009 influenza pandemic vaccine. Our results suggest that differences in cross-reactivity after influenza vaccination should be expected in individuals with different exposure histories.

Project description:Identifying when past exposure to an infectious disease will protect against newly emerging strains is central to understanding the spread and the severity of epidemics, but the prediction of viral cross-protection remains an important unsolved problem. For foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV) research in particular, improved methods for predicting this cross-protection are critical for predicting the severity of outbreaks within endemic settings where multiple serotypes and subtypes commonly co-circulate, as well as for deciding whether appropriate vaccine(s) exist and how much they could mitigate the effects of any outbreak. To identify antigenic relationships and their predictors, we used linear mixed effects models to account for variation in pairwise cross-neutralization titres using only viral sequences and structural data. We identified those substitutions in surface-exposed structural proteins that are correlates of loss of cross-reactivity. These allowed prediction of both the best vaccine match for any single virus and the breadth of coverage of new vaccine candidates from their capsid sequences as effectively as or better than serology. Sub-sequences chosen by the model-building process all contained sites that are known epitopes on other serotypes. Furthermore, for the SAT1 serotype, for which epitopes have never previously been identified, we provide strong evidence--by controlling for phylogenetic structure--for the presence of three epitopes across a panel of viruses and quantify the relative significance of some individual residues in determining cross-neutralization. Identifying and quantifying the importance of sites that predict viral strain cross-reactivity not just for single viruses but across entire serotypes can help in the design of vaccines with better targeting and broader coverage. These techniques can be generalized to any infectious agents where cross-reactivity assays have been carried out. As the parameterization uses pre-existing datasets, this approach quickly and cheaply increases both our understanding of antigenic relationships and our power to control disease.

Project description:UnlabelledAlthough a large number of immune epitopes have been identified in the influenza A virus (IAV) hemagglutinin (HA) protein using various experimental systems, it is unclear which are involved in protective immunity to natural infection in humans. We developed a data mining approach analyzing natural H1N1 human isolates to identify HA protein regions that may be targeted by the human immune system and can predict the evolution of IAV. We identified 16 amino acid sites experiencing diversifying selection during the evolution of prepandemic seasonal H1N1 strains and found that 11 sites were located in experimentally determined B-cell/antibody (Ab) epitopes, including three distinct neutralizing Caton epitopes: Sa, Sb, and Ca2 [A. J. Caton, G. G. Brownlee, J. W. Yewdell, and W. Gerhard, Cell 31:417-427, 1982, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0092-8674(82)90135-0]. We predicted that these diversified epitope regions would be the targets of mutation as the 2009 H1N1 pandemic (pH1N1) lineage evolves in response to the development of population-level protective immunity in humans. Using a chi-squared goodness-of-fit test, we identified 10 amino acid sites that significantly differed between the pH1N1 isolates and isolates from the recent 2012-2013 and 2013-2014 influenza seasons. Three of these sites were located in the same diversified B-cell/Ab epitope regions as identified in the analysis of prepandemic sequences, including Sa and Sb. As predicted, hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assays using human sera from subjects vaccinated with the initial pH1N1 isolate demonstrated reduced reactivity against 2013-2014 isolates. Taken together, these results suggest that diversifying selection analysis can identify key immune epitopes responsible for protective immunity to influenza virus in humans and thereby predict virus evolution.ImportanceThe WHO estimates that approximately 5 to 10% of adults and 20 to 30% of children in the world are infected by influenza virus each year. While an adaptive immune response helps eliminate the virus following acute infection, the virus rapidly evolves to evade the established protective memory immune response, thus allowing for the regular seasonal cycles of influenza virus infection. The analytical approach described here, which combines an analysis of diversifying selection with an integration of immune epitope data, has allowed us to identify antigenic regions that contribute to protective immunity and are therefore the key targets of immune evasion by the virus. This information can be used to determine when sequence variations in seasonal influenza virus strains have affected regions responsible for protective immunity in order to decide when new vaccine formulations are warranted.

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A novel sequence-based antigenic distance measure for H1N1, with application to vaccine effectiveness and the selection of vaccine strains.

Publications

A novel sequence-based antigenic distance measure for H1N1, with application to vaccine effectiveness and the selection of vaccine strains.

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