Dataset Information

A model of tuberculosis transmission and intervention strategies in an urban residential area.

ABSTRACT: The model herein aims to explore the dynamics of the spread of tuberculosis (TB) in an informal settlement or township. The population is divided into households of various sizes and also based on commuting status. The model dynamics distinguishes between three distinct social patterns: the exposure of commuters during travel, random diurnal interaction and familial exposure at night. Following the general SLIR models, the population is further segmented into susceptible (S), exposed/latently infected (L), active/infectious (I), and recovered (R) individuals. During the daytime, commuters travel on public transport, while non-commuters randomly interact in the community to mimic chance encounters with infectious persons. At night, each family interacts and sleeps together in the home. The risk of exposure to TB is based on the proximity, duration, and frequency of encounters with infectious persons. The model is applied to a hypothetical population to explore the effects of different intervention strategies including vaccination, wearing of masks during the commute, prophylactic treatment of latent infections and more effective case-finding and treatment. The most important findings of the model are: (1) members of larger families are responsible for more disease transmissions than those from smaller families, (2) daily commutes on public transport provide ideal conditions for transmission of the disease, (3) improved diagnosis and treatment has the greatest impact on the spread of the disease, and (4) detecting TB at the first clinic visit, when patients are still smear negative, is key.

SUBMITTER: Pienaar E

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3039429 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

ACCESS DATA

Publications

A model of tuberculosis transmission and intervention strategies in an urban residential area.

Pienaar Elsje E Fluitt Aaron M AM Whitney Scott E SE Freifeld Alison G AG Viljoen Hendrik J HJ

Computational biology and chemistry 20100309 2

The model herein aims to explore the dynamics of the spread of tuberculosis (TB) in an informal settlement or township. The population is divided into households of various sizes and also based on commuting status. The model dynamics distinguishes between three distinct social patterns: the exposure of commuters during travel, random diurnal interaction and familial exposure at night. Following the general SLIR models, the population is further segmented into susceptible (S), exposed/latently in ...[more]

PMID: 20381428

Similar Datasets

Project description:Over the past decade malaria intervention coverage has been scaled up across Africa. However, it remains unclear what overall reduction in transmission is achievable using currently available tools.We developed an individual-based simulation model for Plasmodium falciparum transmission in an African context incorporating the three major vector species (Anopheles gambiae s.s., An. arabiensis, and An. funestus) with parameters obtained by fitting to parasite prevalence data from 34 transmission settings across Africa. We incorporated the effect of the switch to artemisinin-combination therapy (ACT) and increasing coverage of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) from the year 2000 onwards. We then explored the impact on transmission of continued roll-out of LLINs, additional rounds of indoor residual spraying (IRS), mass screening and treatment (MSAT), and a future RTS,S/AS01 vaccine in six representative settings with varying transmission intensity (as summarized by the annual entomological inoculation rate, EIR: 1 setting with low, 3 with moderate, and 2 with high EIRs), vector-species combinations, and patterns of seasonality. In all settings we considered a realistic target of 80% coverage of interventions. In the low-transmission setting (EIR approximately 3 ibppy [infectious bites per person per year]), LLINs have the potential to reduce malaria transmission to low levels (<1% parasite prevalence in all age-groups) provided usage levels are high and sustained. In two of the moderate-transmission settings (EIR approximately 43 and 81 ibppy), additional rounds of IRS with DDT coupled with MSAT could drive parasite prevalence below a 1% threshold. However, in the third (EIR = 46) with An. arabiensis prevailing, these interventions are insufficient to reach this threshold. In both high-transmission settings (EIR approximately 586 and 675 ibppy), either unrealistically high coverage levels (>90%) or novel tools and/or substantial social improvements will be required, although considerable reductions in prevalence can be achieved with existing tools and realistic coverage levels.Interventions using current tools can result in major reductions in P. falciparum malaria transmission and the associated disease burden in Africa. Reduction to the 1% parasite prevalence threshold is possible in low- to moderate-transmission settings when vectors are primarily endophilic (indoor-resting), provided a comprehensive and sustained intervention program is achieved through roll-out of interventions. In high-transmission settings and those in which vectors are mainly exophilic (outdoor-resting), additional new tools that target exophagic (outdoor-biting), exophilic, and partly zoophagic mosquitoes will be required.

Project description:Trees can sequester air pollutants, and air pollution is associated with poor tuberculosis outcomes. However, the health impacts of urban trees on tuberculosis patients are unknown. To elucidate the effects of urban tree canopy on mortality during tuberculosis treatment, we evaluated patients diagnosed with active tuberculosis in California from 2000 through 2012, obtaining patient data from the California tuberculosis registry. Our primary outcome was all-cause mortality during tuberculosis treatment. We determined percent tree cover using 1 mresolution color infrared orthoimagery categorized into land cover classes, then linked tree cover to four circular buffer zones of 50-300 m radii around patient residential addresses. We used the Kaplan-Meier method to estimate survival probabilities and Cox regression models to determine mortality hazard ratios, adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical covariates. Our cohort included 33,962 tuberculosis patients of median age 47, 59% male, 51% unemployed, and 4.9% HIV positive. Tuberculosis was microbiologically confirmed in 79%, and 1.17% were multi-drug resistant (MDR). Median tree cover was 7.9% (50 m buffer). Patients were followed for 23,280 person-years with 2370 deaths during tuberculosis treatment resulting in a crude mortality rate of 1018 deaths per 10,000 person-years. Increasing tree cover quintiles were associated with decreasing mortality risk during tuberculosis treatment in all buffers, and the magnitude of association decreased incrementally with increasing buffer radius: In the 50 m buffer, patients living in neighborhoods with the highest quintile tree cover experienced a 22% reduction in mortality (HR 0.78, 95%CI 0.68-0.90) compared to those living in lowest quintile tree cover; whereas for 100, 200, and 300 m buffers, a 21%, 13%, and 11% mortality risk reduction was evident. In conclusion, urban tree canopy was associated with decreased mortality during tuberculosis treatment even after adjusting for multiple demographic, socioeconomic, and clinical factors, suggesting that trees might play a role in improving tuberculosis outcomes.

Dataset Information

A model of tuberculosis transmission and intervention strategies in an urban residential area.

Publications

A model of tuberculosis transmission and intervention strategies in an urban residential area.

Similar Datasets

OmicsDI is part of the ELIXIR infrastructure

Tweets