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Probability based approach for predicting the course of disease in diabetic retinopathy patients.

ABSTRACT: The number of Diabetes patients has risen in both the developing and the developed nations. It is associated with lot complications retinopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy etc. Diabetic retinopathy is one of the leading causes of preventable blindness. Diabetic patients have to be monitored at regular intervals to detect any signs of retinopathy and deterioration of vision and timely intervention. This requires lot of time and cost both on the part of the patient and the specialist. Therefore there is a need to differentiate the ' high risk ' patients from the ' low risk ' patients, so that the high risk ones can be managed more rigorously while the low risk patients can be referred for less frequent screenings and checkups. Data of around 100 patients with Grade 1 retinopathy was collected. Their physiological parameters with their DR grading after 3 years was recorded. Physiological parameters which were having a higher impact on the course of Retinopathy were taken (e.g. Mild blood urea, Hypertension and Smoking in this case). Transition probabilities of going from one stage to other were calculated. Probability of having a single physiological parameter in a given stage of DR at a given point of time was calculated. Probability of various combinations of these physiological parameters in a given stage of disease was calculated. Then by knowing the present stage of that disease future stage (3 years later in this case) of the disease can be predicted. Based on these predictions, the ' high risk ' patients are differentiated from the ' low risk ' patients and are accordingly referred for screenings and interventions.

SUBMITTER: Tripathi RC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC3040499 | biostudies-literature | 2010 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Probability based approach for predicting the course of disease in diabetic retinopathy patients.

Tripathi Ramesh Chandra RC Sing Neera N

Bioinformation 20101101 5

The number of Diabetes patients has risen in both the developing and the developed nations. It is associated with lot complications retinopathy, nephropathy, neuropathy etc. Diabetic retinopathy is one of the leading causes of preventable blindness. Diabetic patients have to be monitored at regular intervals to detect any signs of retinopathy and deterioration of vision and timely intervention. This requires lot of time and cost both on the part of the patient and the specialist. Therefore there ...[more]

PMID: 21364797

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Project description:BackgroundDiabetic retinopathy is the most common microvascular complication of diabetes mellitus on eye and it is the leading cause of visual impairment among productive segment of the population. Globally, the prevalence of diabetic retinopathy is reported to be 27%. In Ethiopia, sufficient data is lacking on the prevalence of diabetic retinopathy as well as information on its predisposing factors. The study was required to assess the prevalence of diabetic retinopathy and its predisposing factors in diabetic patients attending at a General Hospital in Ethiopia.MethodsAn institution based cross sectional study was employed on 331 diabetic patients recruited with a systematic random sampling technique. Data were collected through structured questionnaire, tracing patients' medical folder and ocular health examination. Data were analyzed with Statistical Package for Social Science Version 20. Logistic regression methods of analysis were used to figure out predisposing factors of diabetic retinopathy. Adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence interval was used to determine the strength of association.ResultA total of 331 diabetic patients completed the study with a response rate of 99.10%. The median duration of diabetes was 5 years. The prevalence of diabetic retinopathy was 34.1% (95%Confidence Interval (CI): 28.7%-39.3%). Low family monthly income (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR) = 7.43, 95% CI: 2.44-22.57), longer duration of diabetes (AOR = 1.44, 95% CI: 1.30-1.58), poor glycemic control (AOR = 4.76, 95%CI: 2.26-10.00), and being on insulin treatment alone (AOR = 3.85, 95%CI: 1.16-12.74) were independently associated with diabetic retinopathy.Conclusion and recommendationThe prevalence of diabetic retinopathy was 34.1%, higher than national and global figures. Low family monthly income, longer duration of diabetes, poor glucose control and being on insulin treatment alone were important risk factors of diabetic retinopathy. Proper diabetes self management and early screening of diabetic retinopathy in all diabetic patients were recommended.

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Probability based approach for predicting the course of disease in diabetic retinopathy patients.

Publications

Probability based approach for predicting the course of disease in diabetic retinopathy patients.

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